UK Coal Share Discussion Threads

[spob] 27/4/2012 10:21

is the shareholders equity still worth anything here ?

considering the true net debt, the pension deficit, and the losses


so glad i bailed at 36p

[castleford tiger] 27/4/2012 09:07

and a huge loss forecast for first half this year due to production issues!!
Tiger

for the very brave i say

[angus17] 27/4/2012 08:38

come on guys smell the coffee. It's the pension fund deficit and a too generous public sector type pension deal for employees that is killing this company. All a legacy of the old Bitish Coal days.

[999rp] 27/4/2012 08:29

unfortunately i invested some time ago, may go in again but losing a lot on this one,
one thing that does cone to mind is that the price of coal is stagnent, supply & demand if this goes up then revenues will no doubt go up. the other point is that UK Coal has a lot of land, wityh planning this could be worth a lot and finally there is always a case for a take over..
results like todays will no doubt factor in the potential for a take over.
happy risings..

[sparkstrader] 27/4/2012 07:51

Agree, dark clouds still there, though very positive signs of a turn around. A persons appetite for risk v reward is the question....tempted

[999rp] 27/4/2012 07:42

well todays results being a glimmer of hope...

[jacks13] 20/4/2012 19:08

Too risky for me at any price until the dust settles.

[jackthecat] 20/4/2012 18:43

how low can this go and what is the current NAV after debt??

chart looks really awful, albiet a good punt under 10p i would think

[jimsk1] 20/4/2012 16:09

NEWS THIS WEEKEND I'M AFRAID

[strutt12] 20/4/2012 15:02

Details of the price of restructuring must be out!!!!!!

[jacks13] 15/4/2012 09:52

'...down more than nearly...'. The lad's on top of his subject!

[spob] 15/4/2012 07:48

article in the mail today

[pojscott] 13/4/2012 09:35

Bit of a jump this morning?

[arja] 13/4/2012 08:55

have not looked at this stock for ages and surprised at the way it has sunk. I assume it is technically insolvent and likely to go under with any useful assets cherry picked !

[jacks13] 05/4/2012 09:37

Should be hearing more soon.

[pojscott] 30/3/2012 09:03

I think I should throw my shares in this company in the bin--dead loss!!!

[beeks of arabia] 27/3/2012 21:59

I see Hargreaves have bought the old Wood burning power plant next to Eggborough Power station. Hargreaves signs have gone up today.

Only a mile or two from Kellingley! Wonder what they are going to do with it?

Rumours are they are turning it into offices, although I don't beleive that.

[warbaby43] 20/3/2012 16:18

Not a pretty tale, this Statement. It had been indicated at the Shareholder Presentations that a restructuring was pretty certain to come at some point and, indeed, many investors had been looking forward to seeing finally resolved the illogicality of a mining company sitting alongside a property company. It is, therefore, particularly unfortunate that the backdrop is now so difficult.

At least, though, it would appear that the bank is at least conditionally on board, with thanks probably being due not only to David Brocksom but also to the continuing presence of Peel with its 29%+ shareholding. In fact it is likely that other investors should in no small measure be grateful to John Whittaker given the additional credibility his presence gives the company.

However, the major holders of UKC debt are now the generators and the sort of deal Jonson Cox can cut with them, if any, is likely to have a determining impact on the business. Unfortunately, there is currently a surplus of coal supply in Europe and the rest of the world, with ARA stuck below $100 and $20+ behind where it was just a few months ago. With China currently absent from the spot market, no sustained rise is expected until its return, probably later in the year, and this is reflected in the futures market, ie:

Q2 12 $99.70
Q3 12 $104.05
Q412 $107.70
Q1 13 $110.45
2013 $113.00

However, even despite our LibDem government being seemingly bent on the longer term extermination of coal power generation, UK generators will still need to have some regard to the security of their coal supply and as can be seen from this view from major energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie, thermal coal supply is expected to tighten and prices to remain high in the longer term:



Even in a contracting market, therefore, UK generators are likely to wish to see preserved for the short and medium terms, their largest and most economic local supplier.

With regard to the epicentre of UKC's present troubles, Daw Mill, it would seem most unlikely that this latest visit to the Really Really Absolutely Last and Final Chance Saloon is going to turn out any differently, and mention of 2014 seems something of a red herring. At current prices the eleven week 175,000 t shortfall amounts to over £11m and with normal costs exceeding £2m per week, such a situation is plainly unsustainable without UKC going completely bust well inside the year. May would seem the far more likely date for closure unless the mine can show signs of being able to consistently produce at or very close to the 40kt per week required for any degree of profitability Unfortunately, collectively Daw Mill seems unable and unwilling to face up to the desperation of its situation.

However, the other contributing factor to Daw Mill's chronic present difficulties has been the apparently flawed mining plan which led the pit into the cul de sac of having to mine against the stress resulting in very difficult roof conditions and then shear from a very difficult face. This plan would have been drawn up and validated under the previous management round about, I would guess, 2008 or 2009 but was then allowed to remain in place apparently unchallenged and unaltered.

If indeed it is the case, as seemed to be indicated at the last Shareholder Presentation, that the mining plan was so flawed, then no doubt at some stage Jonson Cox is going to require an external audit not only into how and why the plan came into being and how and why it was allowed to remain in place until after a point of no return, but also into the process at all UKC mines of how mining plans are drawn up and, just as importantly, how and by whom they are internally audited and signed off.

Daw Mill undoubtedly represents a crisis for UKC as a company, but as all the management textbooks tell us, every such crisis presents an opportunity to confront those changes which have long been resisted and delayed, so here arrives a moment of truth for every level of management in UKC but will they have the nous, the grip and the conviction to seize it. All shareholders can do is hope enough of them stand up to be counted.

[beeks of arabia] 18/3/2012 23:43

Oh dear.

We have an interlectual with us.

The Northerners on here won't like that.

[dazzaa] 18/3/2012 21:24

I forgot to add "All together now" Dazzaa

[dazzaa] 18/3/2012 21:07

A teeny bit partisan would you think !! as the ship goes down?

[argylerich] 18/3/2012 19:44

I think you've found yourself a 'special' friend Beeks ;)