Udg Healthcare Public Share Discussion Threads

[liarspoker] 28/11/2008 12:46

Well I bought a few back today JohnnyAD - 25% operating profit increase on a constant currency basis. Business is booming. :O)

[johnnyad] 21/11/2008 08:01

good solid performance again.
cracking share to hold in these troubled times imv, sorry to see liars move on but thanks for your input previously and good luck with tesco.

[liarspoker] 31/10/2008 11:56

Well after over 5 years of holding I sold out last week and bought Tesco at just under 308p.

I was speaking to a pharmacist whose opinion I respect and he mentioned how pharmacies are being affected in the current climate ( ie HSE ). He also walked me through the supply chains etc etc. He basically said that UDG is still a fairly safe hold ( he holds UDG shares himself ) but also explained various scenarios which could get UDG into trouble.

Another worry is that UDG needs to make acquisitions to grow. Organic growth is only slight and most growth comes from acquisitions. It could be difficult to raise money in this climate etc etc etc.

My UDG served me well having more than doubled over the five plus years ( I took the scrip ) and I am hoping that my new Tesco shares will also double over the next 5 and a bit years.

Good luck to UDG holders. :O)

[liarspoker] 03/10/2008 19:57

Nice T/S. :O)

[liarspoker] 18/9/2008 20:07

Analyst site visit Thursday 25th September.

[johnnyad] 28/8/2008 11:00

yep, keep pushing liars!!

[liarspoker] 28/8/2008 10:38

Wow - nice new high. :O)

[liarspoker] 12/8/2008 16:04

Hi JohnnyAD,

T/S as expected with double digit growth again......yawn. what a boring share. ;o)

Important dates - Oct 3rd = next T/S

Nov 19 = Final Results

[johnnyad] 25/7/2008 12:29

Hi Liars

Good updates and forcasts...tucked away safe and enjoying some solidity and growth...for a change!

Thank goodness I bought more than I could remember...and isa'd of course ;-)

[liarspoker] 22/7/2008 21:18

Davy's latest forecast for 2009 has been increased to 28.9c which equals 12% EPS growth. They say the share is trading on a multiple of 12 which discounts its defensive qualities.

[liarspoker] 18/7/2008 09:23

T/S due on 12th August.

NBC has increased its 2009 EPS forecast for UDG after the Sharp acquisition. The new figure is 29.07c. Their price target remains at Euro 4.40 representing a 26% upside.

[johnnyad] 16/7/2008 16:08

cheers Liars.

Markets are not interested at the moment, but confident we'll get the rerating in good time.

Nearly at Sept jeeze time flies quicker as you get older......;-)

[liarspoker] 16/7/2008 09:55

Interestly enough my high end expectations were for 26.3c EPS so add another cent onto that for 27.3c.

That gives a multiple of 12.82 which is fairly cheap for UDG given that it was trading on a P/E north of 16, which was a little lower then the long term EPS growth average, during the last few years.

EPS growth over the last 5 years has averaged at 15% ( and still this board has tumbleweed all over it ) so therefore a multiple of 15 seems appropriate as during a recession people still need drugs and its associated services. Of course the HSE decision could bring EPS up or down either way but I think that there's a long way to go until we get a concrete decision.

Anyhow there seems to be a difference of 2.18 on the multiple so a rerating should see the price rise by 60c which is 17%. Given that end of year is September, which we are nearly at, it is also nearly time to start looking at 2009 which should boost EPS by an extra 14 - 15% or so. Giving an appropriate share price of around 470c but more likely around 420 - 450c if the market remains cautious.

[liarspoker] 16/7/2008 09:36

From Goodbody this AM:

* Acquisition financed from internal resources and existing debt facilities

* Sharp = largest independent contact packaging company in US

* European packing margins would imply EBITA of US$11m which = adding Euro 2.8m to FY08 earnings.

* This would add 1c to EPS which is forecasted at 25.54c ( I am hoping for 26c or better but will take anything better than say 25c )

* At 9X EBIT deal is within range of previous deals ( TD Packaging = 8X as was MPF, Budelpack was done at 10X )

* interest cover should drop to 5.7X from 9.3X and gearing should increase from 23.8% to 38.6%

* Sharp = is biggest acquisition in UDG history and is immediately earnings enhancing ( as described above )

[liarspoker] 16/7/2008 08:00

Sharp company website:

[liarspoker] 16/7/2008 07:33

Looks like UDG made a Sharp acquisition:



Actuallly I am not sure if it is a sharp acquisition as I think that the US$ will keep falling.

[culchi] 23/6/2008 21:32

Also regard John Lee highly, and was aware he has held udg. for a number of years. He usually sings its praises a few times a year describing it as well run with increasing divi. returns. I missed his latest comments as i was away.

[liarspoker] 22/6/2008 08:44

Looks like the seasonal downturn is starting. Reckon I'll pick up a few more if it drops low enough and depending on the HSE decision of course.

I was reading last weekends FT and had to do a double take when I saw that John Lee also owns UDG. He is my favourite columnist in the FT.

[liarspoker] 18/5/2008 12:39

I have just calculated that UDG has given me an 18.23% CAGR per annum over the last 5 years. Quite a satisfactory achievement for this stock I think :O)

[liarspoker] 16/5/2008 16:35

McGrane buys 30,000 shares......things must be going well behind the scenes. :O)

Edit: Exrecised options. Sorry but was at a friends place when posted the line above so not concentrating fully.

[liarspoker] 08/5/2008 19:14

Yep, SFR is now my second or third largest holding too. :O)

Bought my first batch at about 243p from memory and added twice around the 260p mark. Nice Margin of Safety there.

[culchi] 08/5/2008 15:49

was lucky to get a good amount of sfr at £2.65 each. Now my third largest holding.

[liarspoker] 08/5/2008 09:26

No need to thank me for anything culchi, I just do what I like doing. :O)

I seem to be building a nice little stake in SFR atm.

Ex-divi next Wednesday with a near 4.25% final dividend ( 6.37% full year divi ).

[culchi] 08/5/2008 09:23

results out last tues. ,this morning ,two days later i receive interim report in the post. standard procedure for udg. small,compact, detailed ,with no hype, photographs, or self promotion by management. This is what makes me so comfortable with united drug.