U And I Share Discussion Threads

[deadly nightshade] 22/1/2018 19:34

yes positive trading today bogdan really cementing share price rise. next few trading days could be interesting

[bogdan branislov] 22/1/2018 17:15

We have the near 2 year break out. Clearly the company needs to deliver on targets and continue to develop its pipeline, but this is a real Philip Fisher type growth investment, selling very cheaply but equally importantly, we are dealing with a company that is clearly superior to its competitors. Patience now needed to get the big gains, stick with it in full as long as we remain ahead of the 200 day moving average, this could more than 5 bag over the next 3 years. Bogdan

[bogdan branislov] 22/1/2018 08:20

Things starting to look interesting now, just a couple of percentage points off a new 2 year high. More announcements sure to come, seems very unlikely after Friday's Director associated buying that they will announce a slip up on management guidance. Personally, a delay of a couple of conversions into early next FY would not have bothered me at all, but such an event would have pulled us down the trading range for a little while no doubt. Any Director associated buying would have waited for the announcement of any delay or shortfall in annual projections, possibly buying after the dust had settled, which is why such an announcement is not coming, U and I will reach its targets now. Bogdan

[bogdan branislov] 20/1/2018 20:51

DN - everything about this company impresses me, have a look at this presentation by Richard Upton:
hxxps://youtu.be/M2mVSY_TvBw

[deadly nightshade] 20/1/2018 18:57

would also like to say what really impresses me here is how the folk running uai are really in touch with the shareholders. they have a great website with lots of up to date posts and views. wish a lot of other companies would follow how this company relates to its shareholders.

[deadly nightshade] 20/1/2018 18:50

well the bod are showing their confidence and putting their money in buying all these shares and come monday i will have another top up myself

[mikett1] 20/1/2018 18:34

I'm looking forwards to seeing if the market really has priced in this financial years expected earnings. I don't believe they have. Particularly private investors, who I don't think are able to look past the fact UAI made a loss last year. If UAI come in anywhere near expected earnings, which it looks very likely they will, the share price will surely rocket.

[bogdan branislov] 20/1/2018 02:48

Lucy Weiner, person closely associated with Director Matthew Weiner purchased £44k worth of shares, announcement made at 3:32 on Friday afternoon. Further announcements imminent I suspect.

[deadly nightshade] 19/1/2018 13:00

heavy buying going on hopefully this will lift off soon

[bogdan branislov] 18/1/2018 11:58

DN - I think that the U and I share price is only going one way, just a case of how soon and how aggressively. Looking at the anticipated completions before this year end, nearly all the work is more or less done, they just need to get the final agreements signed. Hopefully enough will be completed to reach their target for the year, if not, a couple of the deals would role into early in the next financial year. Interesting how the market seems to place such great importance on this when the earnings for the next 3 years for existing work only are expected at c£150m, relative to the market cap of £248m the forward earnings are considerable. Their forward PE is about a third of that of the market overall, with a strong development pipeline. I think a couple of announcements re completions over the next few weeks would take us rapidly out of this trading range, never to return.

[deadly nightshade] 17/1/2018 18:28

hi bogdan, no i have not got level 2 as i am not a trader either. the next couple of months here should reveal where this is going as we have some results coming in plus hopefully some more millions to hit that big target

[bogdan branislov] 17/1/2018 10:53

DN. Do you or does anyone you know have a level 2 screen. I don't use one as I see it as a distraction for longer term investing. But in this current situation the balance of buys and sells would be interesting to see. The spread is clearly changing considerably throughout the day. Everything here is now unusual. Tight range for a year and if you ignore the Brexit vote dip, the range is nearer 2 years. We are now sitting right below the resistance level, which is in itself very unusual, usually a stock either breaks out or drops down into the range for a while. The institutional buyers - there are 10 or so with over 3% and probably several others with below 3% - are reluctant to buy above £2 as they would like to continue accumulating within the lower range. The problem is that the retail investors, who tend to have short holding periods, won't be selling in any volume now - if they were going to go it would have been before now. The weak holders have been cleared out. We hold over 1/4% of the total shares ourselves, small compared to institutions but a good holding for us. Interestingly, with my average annual compounding return being a little over 33% per annum - 11x fund growth in a little over 8 years, one would think that I had enjoyed near perpetual gains. Not so, gains tend to come in very distinct revaluation phases - the vast majority of the time is spent looking at ludicrously undervalued stocks, like U and I currently, and thinking, this is daft, when is it going to go. Best, Bogdan.

[deadly nightshade] 16/1/2018 08:07

bogdan i just tried a dummy sell first thing this morning and could sell all my shares if i wanted at 193 even though share price is near 199, your right looks like mm's are after some cheap shares. you have got to watch the spread here its massive in the morning then shrinks to next to nothing in the afternoon. i will carry on holding here

[bogdan branislov] 13/1/2018 10:51

Asmodeus and Poacher - The debt has to be seen in the net position, the discount to net assets is considerable. The development of fully owned assets always creates debt due to the outlay in purchase and development with revenues delayed usually until completion. This is why U and I are increasingly moving to the less capital intensive PPP model. Earnings over the next 3 years pre-tax are expected to be worth around 65% of U and I's market cap, which is a very attractive ratio and there is no doubting the company's innovation and creativity. Also, we have stayed in a very tight trading range for a long time now, this has been caused by institutions buying in - see announcements - institutions accumulate as shorter time frame and impatient retail investors off load, the institutions stop buying as the top of the range is reached, start buying again at the bottom of the tight range. I am not a technical investor, I buy on value growth only, but I do know that this tight range is exceptionally long and that is likely to make the initial phase of the break out very aggressive - you could easily miss 20% following the break out before you realise - it would be a shame to miss it, i suspect it is imminent.

[poacher45] 13/1/2018 09:55

I dont like the words loss and debt but this is from their interim report:-
We have not acquired any assets in the period to date, as we believe that we remain in a sellers' market. We have stringent investment criteria and focus on assets where value can be added through active asset management and development. As a result, we believe it is in our Shareholders' best interests for us to remain patient and disciplined in the selection of new assets, rather than loosen our criteria in order to secure new deals. The lack of reinvestment means that we are likely to pause our sales strategy once this round of disposals is complete to maintain the current income stream.
So with the debt coming down asmodeus you may miss the market.

[asmodeus] 13/1/2018 07:55

I'm not tempted back in yet. It's those two words loss and debt that keep putting me off.

[bogdan branislov] 11/1/2018 18:25

Hard to say DN. Strange things happen when a stock is so close to a major breakout, regardless of the value position there will always be those looking to offload at the top of the trading range, then there are those looking to buy more on any sign of weakness in the price - this tug of war could continue for a little while but not for that long - we will either break out above £2.10 fairly quickly or move back into the trading range for a while longer.

[deadly nightshade] 11/1/2018 15:58

anyone know why its next to impossible to sell shares in this company, the smallest amount my broker will accept is 100 share sell and its been like that for days??? not that i want to sell but its always nice to know what brokers are offering on dummy sells.

[spob] 11/1/2018 12:46

Thankyou bogdan

[bogdan branislov] 11/1/2018 12:33

Shares Mag:

Property regeneration group U and I (UAI) is one of the most compelling value opportunities in the property sector and investors should snap up the shares before the wider market cottons on.

U and I trades at a 33% discount to net asset value per share of 300p, according to stockbroker Peel Hunt. Yet it is on track to deliver one of the most substantial total returns in the sector if management guidance is met.

The company hopes to deliver a post-tax return of 12% a year in the next three years, underpinned by annual development and trading gains upwards of £50m. This helps support a prospective yield of nearly 9% based on forecast ordinary and special dividends. Over a three-year period, the yield is expected to average 7.5%.

The business, formerly known as Development Securities, changed its name and strategy in October 2015 following the £27.4m acquisition of regeneration specialist Cathedral Group. It is now focused on large regeneration projects in London, Dublin and Manchester.

Following the completion of the £34m sale of its Blackhorse Road site in north east London to Telford Homes (TEF:AIM) at a price which topped guidance (20 Dec), U and I is on track to deliver guidance for trading gains of £65m to £70m in the financial year ending 28 February 2018.

PPP FOCUS WILL PAY OFF

The company has secured a lot of public private partnership (PPP) work since its relaunch (£1.2bn worth over the last 18 months) where it teams up with local authorities to unlock public land for development.

Peel Hunt reckons this focus will deliver several benefits for the business. ‘We believe that a focus on larger, increasingly PPP led schemes, should not only improve profitability but also leverage on the core strengths and skills of the business.’

U and I books profit from trading assets in the short-term and from a portfolio of assets which includes its own completed developments and other projects with regeneration potential.

Admittedly, previous performance from this investment portfolio has been disappointing and this, along with historic cost issues, helps account for the discounted equity valuation.

By more closely aligning the portfolio with regeneration it is hoped this underperformance can be addressed.

Combined with the development of trading gains in line with management guidance and growing confidence in the recurring nature of supplemental dividends, we think the share price will do well in 2018. (TS)

[asmodeus] 11/1/2018 12:01

Probably Bogdan's ?

[masurenguy] 11/1/2018 11:38

What happened to posts #955 & 956?