Tungsten Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 15/11/2016 09:31

I don't care what you want to call it as long as they do lots of it.

[andrewdbl] 14/11/2016 18:17

No matter what RH says, this is not alt-fi

This is someone doing something well established (hopefully) slightly better than it was done before.

I have no interest in paying someone from hoxton to grow a nice beard.

[dollarzpounds] 11/11/2016 09:20

We live in hope Edward !

[edwardt] 11/11/2016 08:32

yield curve steepening, financials ripping it, if this has any chance to outperform as an alternative finance business, the time is now.

[manics] 10/11/2016 08:12

...a measure of Shareprophets' influence?

[bs76] 10/11/2016 08:04

euroclear data- lending reduced by 0.22%

Month => on loan => % of loan

Oct-16 6,677,456 5.45
Sep-16 6,946,364 5.67
Aug-16 8,295,062 6.77
Jul-16 10,478,220 8.56
Jun-16 10,727,493 8.76
May-16 10,598,608 8.66
Apr-16 10,045,442 8.21
Mar-16 10,820,130 8.84
Feb-16 10,811,003 8.83
Jan-16 9,132,367 7.46
Dec-15 9,739,576 7.96
Nov-15 9,630,439 7.87
Oct-15 10,489,609 8.57
Sep-15 9,685,504 7.91
Aug-15 11,129,458 9.09
Jul-15 12,026,589 9.83
Jun-15 8,104,761 7.11
May-15 9,198,262 9.11
Apr-15 9,695,587 9.65
Mar-15 8,680,110 8.64
Feb-15 9,350,366 9.31
Jan-15 8,446,668 8.41
Dec-14 6,268,143 6.24
Nov-14 3,686,883 3.67
Oct-14 4,534,569 4.56
Sep-14 3,724,597 3.79
Aug-14 3,485,299 3.61
Jul-14 3,582,700 3.71
Jun-14 3,527,632 3.66
May-14 4,186,689 4.34
Apr-14 4,692,580 4.87
Mar-14 3,684,464 3.83
Feb-14 3,759,932 3.92
Jan-14 3,048,439 3.20

[bs76] 01/11/2016 17:52

:) i would love to see anything above 16m. if that happens=> share price will be around 80p

[andrewdbl] 01/11/2016 17:36

BS

1 - oops, thanks
2 - please can I change my geuss to 16.3m.

They made 13m in H2 16.
Basically to reach breakeven on ebitda they need to make ~42m pa
(DW mentioned this number as a desired cost target once the bank has gone etc in the AGM)
- i.e. (hopefully) ~21m in H1 FY18
21-13 = 8
8/3 = 2.67
so to be on a straight line track to ebitda profitability, they need to make
~13+2.7 = 15.7m in H1 FY17 (close to your est of 15m)

I was/am looking for a bit more.
Else what is the point of TEP etc.

[bs76] 01/11/2016 15:11

FYI -

Half yearly numbers and growth rate%

2H FY14 10,000,000
1H FY15 10,227,000 2.27%
2H FY15 12,322,000 20.48%
1H FY16 13,060,000 5.99%
2H FY16 13,023,000 -0.28%

20.48% update in 2HFY15 was mainly because of workflow acquisition


Full year growth looks much better=> FY15 was due to acquisition but FY16 is the real organic growth. I would give credit to Rick.

FY14 19,501,000
FY15 22,549,000 15.63%
FY16 26,083,000 15.67%

[bs76] 01/11/2016 14:55

and it will be great outcome if Tung can post £16m revenue in first half :)

[bs76] 01/11/2016 14:49

Andrew, My assumption was just based on the guidance provided in the final year result update

" Revenue of at least £30 million expected in FY17, with upside potential reflecting the variability and phasing of new customer sales and success of new product and service initiatives"

Last year numbers were
1H FY16 => 13.06m
2H FY16 => 13.02m

So i assume atleast £15m in both.

and one more point regarding
"+2.61 - 1/3rd of the renewals done - avg of ~60% uplift in fees"

60% uplift is only in buyer's fees which is around 40% of total revenue

"Revenue from buyers grew 17.3% to £10.1 million (FY15: £8.6 million1), reflecting price and volume increases of £2.0 million offset by a fall in setup and other one-off fees of £0.5 million. Revenue from suppliers grew 15% to £15.8 million (FY15: £13.8 million), reflecting a net increase of 22,000 Integrated and Web Form supplier customers and a change in the structure of supplier pricing."

so your number 2.61 should be 1.00

[busterdog2] 01/11/2016 13:40

He's probably running a short position on Tungsten.

[manics] 01/11/2016 13:37

I'd agree that's reflective of sentiment, but such a simplistic statement as "it has not yet demonstrated that it's a viable business"...

If Paul (only) wants surety, what's he doing blogging on small caps..?

Twitter (unicorn) hasn't proven it's a viable business yet.
Tesla (unicorn) hasn't proven it's a viable business yet.

A large number of the small caps Paul covers haven't yet proven themselves. By definition the lack of surety doesn't mean there isn't opportunity for investors -quite the reverse.

This is Paul speaking on a blinkered accountant view imo.

[andrewdbl] 01/11/2016 13:14

There are questions being posted here on the theme of 'what will move the share price up'

Note PScotts comment in scvr 01/10/16
"Tungsten (LON:TUNG) - was meant to have sold its bank by the end of Oct 2016. It today says this is in the final stages of regulatory approvals.

I remain of the view that this share is a dead loss. It has not yet demonstrated that it's a viable business."

Basically that comment reflects most peoples/PIs view of TUNG - and I would say it is not too unfair.

The only thing that will change that view is an RNS that says "We are now EBITDA +ve"
That event is due around April '17 iirc.

[andrewdbl] 01/11/2016 13:08

BS

13.06 - last year's income
+1.31 - ~10% organic growth in volume
+2.61 - 1/3rd of the renewals done - avg of ~60% uplift in fees
+0.65 - new business / implementations

= 17.63

Call it 17.5
Just my opinion - and I am always wrong

[bs76] 01/11/2016 12:39

Bank news will only give short term upside- may be 5-8%. The worst case scenario in case bank deal doesn't go through- Tungsten can dismantle the bank and get access to £25m worth assets and with bank sale it will get extra £4-5m cash (premium).

bank sale will reduce cashburn by atleast £2m per year.

Key will still be reducing cashburn. FY17 guidance was EBITDA loss between £12-14m. The key is on how to reduce this in next 2.5 years

So I'm more keen on 1H FY17 update. :)

[dollarzpounds] 01/11/2016 12:23

Bank sale news final or not the news has not shifted the share price or sentiment one iota?

[bs76] 01/11/2016 12:12

6 months period finished. I suppose update will be in 6 weeks (around 15th Dec).

IMO- Revenue: £15M (1H FY16 was £13.06M)

[manics] 01/11/2016 07:04

Bank sale seemingly final though open ended to absolute close now -that'll learn 'em to try and stick a date on it.

[bs76] 29/10/2016 14:08

dcf has got 3 companies listed in aim. The other two are quite illiquid. Tung - 21% shareFuture group - 32% share Meditech pharma - 4.6% share

[bs76] 29/10/2016 13:59

Other option for ed is buy from another big shareholder to increase his holding and then change the board to take control back. He doesn't need to buy whole 100%..may be another 15-20% to take his shareholding to 35% Can he change the board with bigger shareholding?

[manics] 29/10/2016 08:09

"...will invest exclusively in DCF’s existing portfolio of companies"

I appreciate Tungsten (as a listed DCF entity) may or may not be included in additional investment rounds. That said, Tungsten is an outlier at DCF -it's a public listed company. As a consequence there's only 3 ways that DCF could put more money into Tungsten:

1.) Take part in a placing
-which so far as we know isn't an option (because there isn't a placing)

2.) Buy more shares in the market

3.) Launch a bid
-if it's the £80m "top-up" fund that's going into existing DCF co's then I would very much hope that even at 100% allocation £80m isn't enough! Then we have the £500m for "new deals" which sounds like opportunity outside of existing DCF to me, so can perhaps be disregarded (by TUNG longs).

In conclusion, for me, as long as Tungsten aren't asking for additional funds Tungsten either isn't included at all, or DCF may buy more shares, or they (DCF) see a placing which they can leverage to increase exposure.

All imo.

[bs76] 28/10/2016 11:27

EFH is not fraud :)



"Edi Truell: Share swap

Specialist lenders such as Equities First Holdings are rushing in where banks fear to tread. It lends money to businesses and wealthy investors — such as colourful Aim entrepreneurs Rob Terry (Quindell) and Edi Truell (Tungsten) — taking their shares as collateral. On Thursday, EFH’s first transaction in the UK was redeemed at par. Two years ago Andrew Newland, boss of Aim-listed medical diagnostics company Angle plc, transferred 3.5m of his Angle shares to EFH for 57p in return for about £2m in cash. On Thursday, Angle announced Newland was repaying the cash to EFH and buying back the shares. Terry, founder of scandal-hit insurance outsourcer Quindell, was not so lucky. He saw the value of stock he transferred to EFH fall so far he declined to buy back the shares. Meanwhile, Truell, who stepped down from electronic invoicing company Tungsten this year after a failed attempt to take over the group’s assets, transferred 6m Tungsten shares to EFH this month for about £4m cash. He will be hoping the transaction turns out to be an Angle rather than a Quindell."

[bs76] 27/10/2016 14:44

BTW: this is DCF protfolio - 9 companies

hxxps://www.disruptivecapital.com/portfolio.html