Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 04/8/2021 10:07

No real reason at present to imply a fall thru the current support in my opinion


Price (GBX)
45.61 -1.43% (-0.66)

[maywillow] 04/8/2021 10:03

Continues at present to hold above strong support at 43.63p

[maywillow] 04/8/2021 09:58

The Motely Fool

The Tullow Oil share price has climbed 50% in 2021. Here’s what I’m doing now

Alan Oscroft | Tuesday, 3rd August, 2021 | More on: TLW


The oil price is looking strong, and Tullow Oil (LSE: TLW) is among the oil stocks strengthening on the back of it. The Tullow Oil share price is up 54% so far in 2021, though that has to be seen in a long-term context. Over the past two years, taking in the Covid crash and an 89% year-on-year rise, Tullow Oil shares are still down 75%.

And before I consider Tullow as a possible post-pandemic recovery candidate, I see the big crash happened before then. In December 2019, Tullow shocked the market by announcing significantly lowered guidance for the following three years. At the same time, the firm’s chief executive and its exploration director departed.



In the time since then, Tullow has continued to lower its guidance. Most recently, on 14 July this year, the company dropped it to between 55,000 and 61,000 barrels of oil per day for the full year. That’s down from previous guidance of between 60,000 and 66,000. The company was offloading assets too, but the shares did perk up slightly on the day.

After that, though, the Tullow Oil share price fell again and it’s been erratic since. But we’re still left with that strong year-to-date gain, and the attraction might seem puzzling at first.

Positive cashflow trend

The latest July update does also suggest a welcome positive trend. Tullow is predicting underlying operating cash flow of $600m for 2021. That’s based on an oil price of $60 per barrel for the rest of the year. And we’re seeing higher prices than that, with a barrel of Brent Crude currently going for $73. A sustained $70 would, the company says, boost cashflow by an extra $50m.

That, on the face of it, sounds attractive to me. But I still see the same huge millstone around Tullow’s corporate neck that’s been there for years. I’m talking of debt, which the company has recently restructured, again. This time, in May, a $1.8bn corporate bond package was involved. Tullow estimates year-end net debt at $2.3bn (£1.65bn).

To put that into perspective, Tullow’s current market capitalisation stands at £654m. So debt amounts to two-and-a-half times the value of the entire company.
Tullow Oil share price uptick?

Looking at Tullow now makes me think back to Premier Oil (now Harbour Energy) when I bought. I consistently see two possibilities. Either oil will remain strong and production will improve, the debt will come down gradually, and the shares will continue to gain. Or one of those things will go wrong, and we’ll hit the next crisis.

It’s as if the company is standing on a beach, staring at the sea. Every high tide, it hopes it can keep its head just elevated enough to get some air. Those high tides are Tullow’s debt crises. And they seem to be rolling in almost interminably. So far, Tullow has breathed through each high tide, but its neck has got a bit too wet on occasion for my liking.

So for me, even if the Tullow Oil share price might be getting a bit of life back in the second half of 2021, I’m keeping away. And that’s not just Tullow, I’m steering clear of all heavily indebted companies.

[ammu12] 04/8/2021 09:45

Reckon we will see 30's soon

[waldron] 04/8/2021 07:59

European markets set for cautiously higher open as investors watch earnings, data
Published Wed, Aug 4 20211:57 AM EDT
Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC
Share
Key Points

Earnings continue to guide sentiment in Europe, with Commerzbank, Siemens Energy, Hugo Boss and Intesa Sanpaolo among the big names reporting Wednesday.
Final services and manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings are due Wednesday morning from across the euro zone and the U.K., along with June’s euro zone retail sales figures.

LONDON — European markets are set for a slightly higher open on Wednesday, as strong U.S. corporate earnings boosted global sentiment.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 15 points higher at 7,121, Germany’s DAX is set to add around 35 points to 15,590 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to gain around 16 points to 6,740, according to IG data.

[fizzmiss] 03/8/2021 15:01

oh well, it will rise again, just a matter of time and patience.

They cant stop roads and tyres from wearing out.

Paint and plastics.

Hardly any investment in oil, just a waiting game.

[ammu12] 03/8/2021 14:57

Looks like share price about to collapse into the 30's

[fizzmiss] 03/8/2021 14:54

If we did we would be at 75p a share, it hardly moved up with POO but soon crashed down after a few dollar fall.

We were at 65p with a much lower oil price.

[subsurface] 03/8/2021 14:25

Follows the POO fizz

[fizzmiss] 03/8/2021 14:13

Here we go again, the MM dropping the price for there sewer rat shorting mates, So blatantly corrupt/

[thommie] 03/8/2021 08:28

completion of the water injector at jubilee has to be done soon. they will start to drill the gas injector at TEN next with completion expected before year end.

[waldron] 03/8/2021 07:59

European markets set for cautious open as investors react to major earnings

Published Tue, Aug 3 20212:00 AM EDT

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

Tuesday marks another big day for corporate earnings in Europe, with BP, Standard Chartered, BMW and Societe Generale among the big names reporting.

On the data front, euro zone producer price inflation readings for June are due at 10 a.m. London time.

LONDON — European stocks are set for a muted open on Tuesday as global markets search for direction amid earnings, rising Covid-19 cases, Chinese tech regulation and U.S. growth worries.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 10 points lower at 7,072, Germany’s DAX is set to inch a single point higher to 15,569 and France’s CAC 40 is expected to slip around 3 points to 6,673, according to IG data.

[fizzmiss] 02/8/2021 17:52

Thought they would drag it back down again. Disgusting how powerful the sewer rat shorters are with manipulating the share price lower with the aid of the MM.

sHOULD BE 75P ALL DAY THIS ONE.

[otemple3] 02/8/2021 14:46

Do any of you have any views on Afentra (AET) given the involvement of some of the old Tullow team e.g. Paul McDade. Was he unlucky at Tullow in the end / deserves backing or not?

[kulvinder] 02/8/2021 14:33

Can't ever keep the rise, looks like needs a bit of Viagra to keep it up.

[fizzmiss] 02/8/2021 08:52

Sorry to say but I don't think this false rise will last. The MM has an agenda with getting this as low as possible for the sewer rat shorters.

Hope I'm wrong but will see.

Looking at the ramp and pump of ENQ, you would think this would be at least 75p all day

[waldron] 02/8/2021 07:39

European stocks set to edge higher, tracking positive global sentiment

Published Mon, Aug 2 20212:08 AM EDT

Elliot Smith
@ElliotSmithCNBC


Key Points

Earnings are in focus once again in Europe on Monday, with Heineken, AXA and HSBC among the big names reporting.

On the data front, final Markit manufacturing PMI (purchasing managers’ index) readings for July are due from across the euro zone and the U.K. on Monday morning.

LONDON — European stocks are set to open higher on Monday, tracking positive sentiment around the world to begin the month.

Britain’s FTSE 100 is seen around 34 points higher at 7,066, Germany’s DAX is expected to add around 69 points to 15,613 and France’s CAC 40 is set to climb around 33 points to 6,646, according to IG data.

[subsurface] 01/8/2021 12:56

from Exxon,s second quarter results
ExxonMobil continued to progress its major deepwater developments in Guyana, including the announcement of new discoveries at Uaru-2, Longtail-3, and Whiptail, which increase confidence in the quality and size of the resource and supports the potential for 7 to 10 floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facilities in the Stabroek block. Exploration, appraisal, and development drilling continues, with a total of six drillships now operating offshore Guyana. The company's high-return developments remain on schedule, with Liza Phase 2 on target for 2022 startup, Payara on schedule for 2024 startup and Yellowtail targeted for 2025 startup.

[subsurface] 01/8/2021 07:45

Old news Fizz I posted 1446 hrs on 30th July.