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TLW Tullow Oil Plc

31.16
-0.34 (-1.08%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tullow Oil Plc LSE:TLW London Ordinary Share GB0001500809 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.34 -1.08% 31.16 31.04 31.20 31.72 30.92 31.40 4,178,068 16:35:01
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs 1.78B 49.1M 0.0338 9.18 451.36M
Tullow Oil Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TLW. The last closing price for Tullow Oil was 31.50p. Over the last year, Tullow Oil shares have traded in a share price range of 21.84p to 39.94p.

Tullow Oil currently has 1,454,137,162 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil is £451.36 million. Tullow Oil has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 9.18.

Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

Showing 37476 to 37498 of 68725 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
03/9/2018
18:20
without a doubt an interesting end of year approaches- Brexit vote- Mid term elections in USA- will Trump survive- will May still be on the job
n73
03/9/2018
10:29
Rig On Site to Drill Cormorant-1 in PEL 37 Offshore Namibia

Spud later today

jimarilo
03/9/2018
10:05
Mate - I'm long Tullow. Never shorted it in my life. Also long Kosmos. I'm hoping TLW will recover, but given previous, and numerous missteps by current management, I can't exactly say my confidence levels are particularly high at the moment. The way I see it, Tullow made some good commercial deals in its early days. Bought some gas assets from BP, and Esso (as it then was) in the UKNS in about 2000. In 2004 did a brilliant deal Energy Africa, which has paid for itself many times over. EA assets became the cash engine of the group and enabled pursuit of Uganda (actually an EA asset) and then Ghana. But there have been a whole array of bad decisions. Doubling up on Uganda hasn't paid off. Acquiring Dutch gas assets then selling them off a few years later with large write down. Same with Norway. Spent a lot on an acquisition. Made a decent discovery, then forced to sell the lot, with a massive write down. Then there was over confidence in exploration [AH ... "we must be the best explorer on the planet" c2008]. That resulted in routinely spending $500m a year just on exploration (from memory) without making a single basin opening discovery (apart from Norway, operated by a.n.other, sold at a loss). Historically TLW have been big risk takers. Sometimes appetite for risk has clouded judgement imo (e.g. Uganda, or having 50% of DWT Ghana, or drilling Jubilee "look-a-likes" all over the equatorial margins and not finding oil). That appetite for risk, and a failure to balance risk with achievable exit strategies, has overloaded the company with debt. The debt means Tullow have been out manouvered by Kosmos, who picked up Hess's assets in Equatorial Guinea, as well as a lot of blocks in Cote d'Ivoire that Tullow were after. Kosmos got everything they wanted in CdI, Tullow didn't. Kosmos may never make another commercial discovery, but at least they have a coherent and focussed strategy, with decent big name farm in partners. Tullow's exploration portfolio hopper needs replenishing, but this doesn't seem to be happening, in a visible way. Where do we go if Namibia/Guyana disappoint? W/Afr "non-op" is getting a bit long in the tooth, where are the new deals to replace these maturing assets? Current management (CM) have got us into this mess, by over extending the company, and not appreciating the downside. Hopefully CM can navigate a way out, but maybe it's time for a changing of the guard in some quarters. All imo, bootycall!
xxnjr1
03/9/2018
08:45
Great write up bootycall, it's extremely frustrating being an oil bull invested in Tullow but good to get a positive take on the situation.

S

mcsean2164
03/9/2018
08:22
The chart is forming a V shape at the moment maybe its telling us something!
subsurface
03/9/2018
06:40
xxnjr1. Please go ahead and short away. I was deeply disappointed by the Kosmos result...I also wanted blood. Why indeed was no person fired for what appears to be such a whopping administrative error ?Now let’s consider the mitigating circumstances. The rig contract was an eye watering $600k per day and TLW was in a toxic position legally and politically. With acreage commitments on both sides of the disputed Ghana/Ivory Coast border and such an aggressive land grab from the Ivorians on their principal asset, they needed to proceed with great caution. The argument that they could have drilled elsewhere and avoided force majeure ( used by Seadrill in the court case) whilst technically correct, is forgetting the fact that other locations did not offer the same cost benefit / or cost recovery terms. They lost on a point of law not a reflection of the pragmatic business reasons for contract termination . How do you redeploy a rig into other acreage when you do not have the same licence partners in other locations to contribute to the day rate? The reason it cost Tullow so much money is that the ITLOS debacle occurred in the most vicious downturn where the RIG OPERATOR could not deploy on similar rates anywhere else. Sounds like a bit of a “black swan “ event to me.The main board only approved the fast drill out of Ten and Jubilee on such a long term contract because of the anticipated cash flows,attractive cost recovery and prevailing oil prices. I remember at the time how African E&P companies were complaining at lack of rig availability and the service companies could dictate terms. The most interesting point I think I can probably make in Tullow’s defence is that they believed that were executing an agreed position amongst the partners regardless of Kosmos ability to wriggle out of their liability. Interesting that all of the other partners to the agreement have now paid their cash calls and not entered into further legal disputes with Tullow. Suggests that Tullows argument that the operating committee followed normal industry procedures must be at least partially true . Which brings me back to some other homes truths. Perhaps you will contrast the conservatism of Tullows market guidance with the forward looking statements in Kosmos quarterly reports. Then look at the outperformance of Kosmos stock even though they have very similar asset portfolios. Isn’t it great to be owned by private equity. Interesting how Tullow has just cleaned up in the latest licensing round in the Ivory Coast and then farmed straight out to Cairn. I wonder whether Kosmos would have been interested in those assets ? :)
I really enjoy your posts which are well researched and show great industry knowledge but in my humble ( ok sometimes big headed ) opinion, I am just turning major bull on a Tullow. All of the analysts are by necessity applying normal decline rates on Jubilee production because they have not yet seen a reserve report that allows them to do much to the contrary. I believe that this will change decisively during the current drilling programme. I am willing to speculate that Tullow will show it can produce to the full nameplate capacity of the two FPSOs for several years as a result of infill drilling. Furthermore if one applies a $70 oil price to this level of production,the share price is headed substantially higher based on Ghana alone. Jubilee, has a history of substantial reserve upgrades. This, I believe,is a function of the difficulty of initially estimating recoverability ratios on immature fields. This was exacerbated by technical uncertainty of whether a gas offtake from Jubilee would be able to get financing. More recently we had the potential issue of whether there would be reservoir damage from high production rates without remedial work opportunities during the ITLOS dispute. We even had to retrofit filters to existing wells to stop sand clogging. I am not a petroleum engineer but I have researched this in some depth.
To achieve share price outperformance, I do accept there needs to be a catalyst. I also agree that the Namibian acreage represents a cluster of 100m barrel prospects and is pretty high risk. I doubt if a Kenyan farm in is around the corner. The other non operated acreage in West Africa is exceptionally high return but does not materially change things. So why am I bullish ? Quite simply ... Guyana ! If the stock market does not wake up ...I speculate that a major will take a pop at Tullow and then Exxon will in my opinion most likely join in. Do you honestly think the board of Tullow is so stupid that they will not now prioritise Guyana ? Eco Atlantic has to the best of my knowledge specifically referred to their “partner”; on the licence agreeing that certain prospects on this acreage have been derisked. This is hardly surprising since they are close to finishing their own 3D seismic interpretation and Hammerhead is 7kms from the block and one the prospects overlaps. If Tullow was previously talking about 1bn barrels of risked prospects on the block, I believe the number is more like 5-6 billion unrisked. I do accept that these prospects are channel sands and similar to Ghana will have to be drilled out rather than inferred as a stratigraphic resource. Shorting Tullow could represent a short term trading opportunity if oil prices come off. From where I am standing Tullow has 20-30p downside and enormous upside. Shorting can be dangerous to your health.

bootycall
02/9/2018
20:29
They'll probably do a couple of hours of DP trials once the arrive before settling onto the exact spud location.
oilretire
02/9/2018
13:42
Poseidon under way supposedly to 'Trial Area' again.

Pretty sure off to site though with escort vessels now. Holding present course would take them to well site.

billy_buffin
31/8/2018
23:05
Wellcome back n73. Trust you enjoyed some quality time during the Season. Nothing much happened wrt Tullow. A deathoning (sic) silence on their part. Maybe it's terminal. Perhaps not. Who knows? Not sure if you were around for the verdicts? T vs Seadrill and T vs Kosmos. T 0 - others 2. Minus about $275m and no longer in the Premiership. (Nobody lost their job over this). We are about to drill a 'high impact' well in Namibia. It's not actually 'high impact', but opens the door to several look-a-like follow on prospects, although there may not be any cash to drill the follow ons. Given TLW's recent drilling results, could be a good time to short ;-) Our new Chairwoman Dorothy has recently started in her new role but so far there's been a deafening silence from her too. Maybe she's on holiday? Uganda deal completion - another deafening silence. N73 you haven't missed much really. I can confirm I remain solvent and the buses ran as scheduled! Have a lovely week-end.
xxnjr1
31/8/2018
16:55
Hello there. I'm back.Have I missed anything?
n73
31/8/2018
16:43
Happens every trading day - it's the closing auction.
xxnjr1
31/8/2018
16:06
Again more than a million buys after close?
alfiex
31/8/2018
07:42
May be a bit of implied hyberbole in ECO's PR wrt to Orinduik block. Derisks 1 of the many yes. But some of the other fans, perhaps a majority are fed by a different canyon system (essequibe) afaics. It would be good if TLW actually gave us a meaningful slide about this! Do find TLW's graphics in their presentations rather mediocre these days. Ditto for website graphics. Apologies for minor rant!
xxnjr1
31/8/2018
07:27
No probs SS. This partially derisks Iatuk



Slide 30. Iatuk is the top side of the shelf break, although same channel system.

xxnjr1
31/8/2018
07:14
Thanks for posting xxnjr going in the right direction,
regards
ss

subsurface
31/8/2018
06:56
This is the most interesting well result so far. To understand it, first of all expand the map on the Hess release



Then download this Hess presentation, go to slide 11



Black dots wells drilled. Dark green discovered resource. Light green new prospects + yet to be appraised parts of existing discoveries.

Comparing the two graphics, Hammerhead is the light green fan between "2" & "4". The throat of the fan does indeed appear to extend into the Orinduik block. Black lines on the press release graphic are water depth contours, giving an idea of the gradient of the slope. Hammerhead is a step in the right direction and agree does appear to de-risk [by how many %!!!] the play a bit further up the slope.

xxnjr1
31/8/2018
06:14
7km away from tlw
billy_buffin
30/8/2018
18:21
Anybody know why there are so many trades after close?
alfiex
30/8/2018
17:33
May have been helped today by another XOM discovery in Guyana - albeit there's is at bottom of slope. Plus oil price effects.
xxnjr1
30/8/2018
12:50
Oh how could I forget the chart looks great!
mariopeter
30/8/2018
12:49
Even better Frazboy. Good point. Net assets in dollars too.
mariopeter
30/8/2018
12:42
Hard Brexit should be good, since the income is in dollars. Basically it's a hedge against it.
frazboy
30/8/2018
12:25
Goods

Jubilee probs nearly over

Great Insurance precedent

Production Ghana being stepped up

Spud Namibia exciting. Titan targets.

Uganda funded although overfunded.

Possible dividends at year end

Debt now within target

Share unloved Is much better than overly loved

I sense great management

Cash generation is massive.

Iran and Venezuela

Hurricane season




Bads

Uganda too slow and seemingly greedy/desperate government.

Kenya to be funded or farmed out

Management projections on free cash flow seem off for second half 2018. Maybe caution.



Don’t knows

Hard Brexit effects

Any more legal skeletons

mariopeter
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