We could not find any results for:
Make sure your spelling is correct or try broadening your search.
Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Type | Share ISIN | Share Description |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tullow Oil Plc | LSE:TLW | London | Ordinary Share | GB0001500809 | ORD 10P |
Price Change | % Change | Share Price | Bid Price | Offer Price | High Price | Low Price | Open Price | Shares Traded | Last Trade | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.34 | -1.08% | 31.16 | 31.04 | 31.20 | 31.72 | 30.92 | 31.40 | 4,178,068 | 16:35:01 |
Industry Sector | Turnover | Profit | EPS - Basic | PE Ratio | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs | 1.78B | 49.1M | 0.0338 | 9.18 | 451.36M |
Date | Subject | Author | Discuss |
---|---|---|---|
03/9/2018 18:20 | without a doubt an interesting end of year approaches- Brexit vote- Mid term elections in USA- will Trump survive- will May still be on the job | n73 | |
03/9/2018 10:29 | Rig On Site to Drill Cormorant-1 in PEL 37 Offshore Namibia Spud later today | jimarilo | |
03/9/2018 10:05 | Mate - I'm long Tullow. Never shorted it in my life. Also long Kosmos. I'm hoping TLW will recover, but given previous, and numerous missteps by current management, I can't exactly say my confidence levels are particularly high at the moment. The way I see it, Tullow made some good commercial deals in its early days. Bought some gas assets from BP, and Esso (as it then was) in the UKNS in about 2000. In 2004 did a brilliant deal Energy Africa, which has paid for itself many times over. EA assets became the cash engine of the group and enabled pursuit of Uganda (actually an EA asset) and then Ghana. But there have been a whole array of bad decisions. Doubling up on Uganda hasn't paid off. Acquiring Dutch gas assets then selling them off a few years later with large write down. Same with Norway. Spent a lot on an acquisition. Made a decent discovery, then forced to sell the lot, with a massive write down. Then there was over confidence in exploration [AH ... "we must be the best explorer on the planet" c2008]. That resulted in routinely spending $500m a year just on exploration (from memory) without making a single basin opening discovery (apart from Norway, operated by a.n.other, sold at a loss). Historically TLW have been big risk takers. Sometimes appetite for risk has clouded judgement imo (e.g. Uganda, or having 50% of DWT Ghana, or drilling Jubilee "look-a-likes" all over the equatorial margins and not finding oil). That appetite for risk, and a failure to balance risk with achievable exit strategies, has overloaded the company with debt. The debt means Tullow have been out manouvered by Kosmos, who picked up Hess's assets in Equatorial Guinea, as well as a lot of blocks in Cote d'Ivoire that Tullow were after. Kosmos got everything they wanted in CdI, Tullow didn't. Kosmos may never make another commercial discovery, but at least they have a coherent and focussed strategy, with decent big name farm in partners. Tullow's exploration portfolio hopper needs replenishing, but this doesn't seem to be happening, in a visible way. Where do we go if Namibia/Guyana disappoint? W/Afr "non-op" is getting a bit long in the tooth, where are the new deals to replace these maturing assets? Current management (CM) have got us into this mess, by over extending the company, and not appreciating the downside. Hopefully CM can navigate a way out, but maybe it's time for a changing of the guard in some quarters. All imo, bootycall! | xxnjr1 | |
03/9/2018 08:45 | Great write up bootycall, it's extremely frustrating being an oil bull invested in Tullow but good to get a positive take on the situation. S | mcsean2164 | |
03/9/2018 08:22 | The chart is forming a V shape at the moment maybe its telling us something! | subsurface | |
03/9/2018 06:40 | xxnjr1. Please go ahead and short away. I was deeply disappointed by the Kosmos result...I also wanted blood. Why indeed was no person fired for what appears to be such a whopping administrative error ?Now let’s consider the mitigating circumstances. The rig contract was an eye watering $600k per day and TLW was in a toxic position legally and politically. With acreage commitments on both sides of the disputed Ghana/Ivory Coast border and such an aggressive land grab from the Ivorians on their principal asset, they needed to proceed with great caution. The argument that they could have drilled elsewhere and avoided force majeure ( used by Seadrill in the court case) whilst technically correct, is forgetting the fact that other locations did not offer the same cost benefit / or cost recovery terms. They lost on a point of law not a reflection of the pragmatic business reasons for contract termination . How do you redeploy a rig into other acreage when you do not have the same licence partners in other locations to contribute to the day rate? The reason it cost Tullow so much money is that the ITLOS debacle occurred in the most vicious downturn where the RIG OPERATOR could not deploy on similar rates anywhere else. Sounds like a bit of a “black swan “ event to me.The main board only approved the fast drill out of Ten and Jubilee on such a long term contract because of the anticipated cash flows,attractive cost recovery and prevailing oil prices. I remember at the time how African E&P companies were complaining at lack of rig availability and the service companies could dictate terms. The most interesting point I think I can probably make in Tullow’s defence is that they believed that were executing an agreed position amongst the partners regardless of Kosmos ability to wriggle out of their liability. Interesting that all of the other partners to the agreement have now paid their cash calls and not entered into further legal disputes with Tullow. Suggests that Tullows argument that the operating committee followed normal industry procedures must be at least partially true . Which brings me back to some other homes truths. Perhaps you will contrast the conservatism of Tullows market guidance with the forward looking statements in Kosmos quarterly reports. Then look at the outperformance of Kosmos stock even though they have very similar asset portfolios. Isn’t it great to be owned by private equity. Interesting how Tullow has just cleaned up in the latest licensing round in the Ivory Coast and then farmed straight out to Cairn. I wonder whether Kosmos would have been interested in those assets ? :) I really enjoy your posts which are well researched and show great industry knowledge but in my humble ( ok sometimes big headed ) opinion, I am just turning major bull on a Tullow. All of the analysts are by necessity applying normal decline rates on Jubilee production because they have not yet seen a reserve report that allows them to do much to the contrary. I believe that this will change decisively during the current drilling programme. I am willing to speculate that Tullow will show it can produce to the full nameplate capacity of the two FPSOs for several years as a result of infill drilling. Furthermore if one applies a $70 oil price to this level of production,the share price is headed substantially higher based on Ghana alone. Jubilee, has a history of substantial reserve upgrades. This, I believe,is a function of the difficulty of initially estimating recoverability ratios on immature fields. This was exacerbated by technical uncertainty of whether a gas offtake from Jubilee would be able to get financing. More recently we had the potential issue of whether there would be reservoir damage from high production rates without remedial work opportunities during the ITLOS dispute. We even had to retrofit filters to existing wells to stop sand clogging. I am not a petroleum engineer but I have researched this in some depth. To achieve share price outperformance, I do accept there needs to be a catalyst. I also agree that the Namibian acreage represents a cluster of 100m barrel prospects and is pretty high risk. I doubt if a Kenyan farm in is around the corner. The other non operated acreage in West Africa is exceptionally high return but does not materially change things. So why am I bullish ? Quite simply ... Guyana ! If the stock market does not wake up ...I speculate that a major will take a pop at Tullow and then Exxon will in my opinion most likely join in. Do you honestly think the board of Tullow is so stupid that they will not now prioritise Guyana ? Eco Atlantic has to the best of my knowledge specifically referred to their “partner” | bootycall | |
02/9/2018 20:29 | They'll probably do a couple of hours of DP trials once the arrive before settling onto the exact spud location. | oilretire | |
02/9/2018 13:42 | Poseidon under way supposedly to 'Trial Area' again. Pretty sure off to site though with escort vessels now. Holding present course would take them to well site. | billy_buffin | |
31/8/2018 23:05 | Wellcome back n73. Trust you enjoyed some quality time during the Season. Nothing much happened wrt Tullow. A deathoning (sic) silence on their part. Maybe it's terminal. Perhaps not. Who knows? Not sure if you were around for the verdicts? T vs Seadrill and T vs Kosmos. T 0 - others 2. Minus about $275m and no longer in the Premiership. (Nobody lost their job over this). We are about to drill a 'high impact' well in Namibia. It's not actually 'high impact', but opens the door to several look-a-like follow on prospects, although there may not be any cash to drill the follow ons. Given TLW's recent drilling results, could be a good time to short ;-) Our new Chairwoman Dorothy has recently started in her new role but so far there's been a deafening silence from her too. Maybe she's on holiday? Uganda deal completion - another deafening silence. N73 you haven't missed much really. I can confirm I remain solvent and the buses ran as scheduled! Have a lovely week-end. | xxnjr1 | |
31/8/2018 16:55 | Hello there. I'm back.Have I missed anything? | n73 | |
31/8/2018 16:43 | Happens every trading day - it's the closing auction. | xxnjr1 | |
31/8/2018 16:06 | Again more than a million buys after close? | alfiex | |
31/8/2018 07:42 | May be a bit of implied hyberbole in ECO's PR wrt to Orinduik block. Derisks 1 of the many yes. But some of the other fans, perhaps a majority are fed by a different canyon system (essequibe) afaics. It would be good if TLW actually gave us a meaningful slide about this! Do find TLW's graphics in their presentations rather mediocre these days. Ditto for website graphics. Apologies for minor rant! | xxnjr1 | |
31/8/2018 07:27 | No probs SS. This partially derisks Iatuk Slide 30. Iatuk is the top side of the shelf break, although same channel system. | xxnjr1 | |
31/8/2018 07:14 | Thanks for posting xxnjr going in the right direction, regards ss | subsurface | |
31/8/2018 06:56 | This is the most interesting well result so far. To understand it, first of all expand the map on the Hess release Then download this Hess presentation, go to slide 11 Black dots wells drilled. Dark green discovered resource. Light green new prospects + yet to be appraised parts of existing discoveries. Comparing the two graphics, Hammerhead is the light green fan between "2" & "4". The throat of the fan does indeed appear to extend into the Orinduik block. Black lines on the press release graphic are water depth contours, giving an idea of the gradient of the slope. Hammerhead is a step in the right direction and agree does appear to de-risk [by how many %!!!] the play a bit further up the slope. | xxnjr1 | |
31/8/2018 06:14 | 7km away from tlw | billy_buffin | |
30/8/2018 18:21 | Anybody know why there are so many trades after close? | alfiex | |
30/8/2018 17:33 | May have been helped today by another XOM discovery in Guyana - albeit there's is at bottom of slope. Plus oil price effects. | xxnjr1 | |
30/8/2018 12:50 | Oh how could I forget the chart looks great! | mariopeter | |
30/8/2018 12:49 | Even better Frazboy. Good point. Net assets in dollars too. | mariopeter | |
30/8/2018 12:42 | Hard Brexit should be good, since the income is in dollars. Basically it's a hedge against it. | frazboy | |
30/8/2018 12:25 | Goods Jubilee probs nearly over Great Insurance precedent Production Ghana being stepped up Spud Namibia exciting. Titan targets. Uganda funded although overfunded. Possible dividends at year end Debt now within target Share unloved Is much better than overly loved I sense great management Cash generation is massive. Iran and Venezuela Hurricane season Bads Uganda too slow and seemingly greedy/desperate government. Kenya to be funded or farmed out Management projections on free cash flow seem off for second half 2018. Maybe caution. Don’t knows Hard Brexit effects Any more legal skeletons | mariopeter |
It looks like you are not logged in. Click the button below to log in and keep track of your recent history.
Support: +44 (0) 203 8794 460 | support@advfn.com
By accessing the services available at ADVFN you are agreeing to be bound by ADVFN's Terms & Conditions