Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spawny100] 01/5/2018 19:14

I did with my last trade here sux (1.80-2.39) but that was beginners luck on TLW I think! I'm also waiting for a reentry point.

[sux_2bu] 01/5/2018 18:24

I'm looking to get another holding but all the T/A is too high for my personal liking, it's been a painful wait as could have had more out of it. But hey ho, timing things totally accurately in the market is something no one gets spot on. ;-)

[dealer1972] 01/5/2018 18:17

Oil tumbling won't help either ;)

[sux_2bu] 01/5/2018 17:46

That rise to almost 230p would have caught many out thinking it was about to take off again.
The MacD and RSI show us it was a false attempt to carry on upwards.

Fun and lots of bent market games.

[mariopeter] 01/5/2018 16:10

very very low volume today.

[xxnjr1] 01/5/2018 00:08

or triple damn even ;-)

[sux_2bu] 30/4/2018 17:03

Great Scott.....damn, damn and double damn.... ;-)

[nicebut] 29/4/2018 12:44

Some good finds there...

TLW could be timing the drilling (and 2nd drill rig- should it happen) to perfection, with rising oil prices and the timing of fixes to Jubilee turret etc. Also with further drilling at TEN blocked until very recently too the expansion there is prescient.

[xxnjr1] 28/4/2018 11:23

2 rigs would be the most efficient way to do it. You have one rig batch drilling to TD (or even a lower casing point maybe) and other rig batch completing (or lower casing point to TD) etc. However it comes at almost double the cost. So may not happen as there's a competing story to get about $500m free cashflow out of the business this year. It takes about 60 to 70 days to drill and complete. With only one rig then thats about 4 completions this year at best. Some of the earliest J wells were 15K producers (from memory) and look at TEN where only 5 producers seem to be delivering consistently >12K per well average. The reservoir in Jubilee and TEN has never really been in doubt. Having said that there has been a bit of a drilling hiatus so may be a bit of work to do to turn things around initially. We'll just have to see if the processing facilities on Jubilee can reliably produce at 110K to 120K (assuming wells deliver that) without the odd water injection pump or gas compressor wearing out, as has been the case in the past.

[frazboy] 28/4/2018 09:54

Thanks xxnjr - they might make it up to 120, it’s definitely a reasonable objective. Difficult to say without further info, but with a one rig policy you would expect 4 wells on Jubilee over the next 2 years (2 on Jubilee and 2 on TEN per year). Will that be enough to fight the decline? Would have to be 10k per well ish... And no injectors. I reckon it would require a fair wind but with 2 rigs drilling, it definitely looks doable.

Some background info to sense check numbers:

[paulbiya] 28/4/2018 08:01

Sux2b ...so you've been wanting to buy back in for a couple of weeks' now....?

[xxnjr1] 28/4/2018 01:11

frazboy - this was on the Q4 Kosmos Webcast not so long ago

Q (Ryan Todd)
Maybe a quick one on Jubilee and TEN. So you’re drilling four wells I think between the two assets this year. Can you talk about maybe the trajectory of the production of both those fields not just over the course of 2018 but I guess maybe as we look into 2019 as well? What does the timeline look like on a production ramp and as you look at full field development across both of those, I guess how should we expect that to proceed over the next couple of years? And I’ll leave it there.

A (Andy Inglis)
Okay, great, Ryan. So what are we doing? We’re actually back to drilling. This is great news. The objective in Jubilee is actually to fill the facility. And so we’re talking about a facility we know that can run around 120,000 barrels of oil per day. And with the drilling resuming full field, that would be the objective. And that ramp up is going to occur through '18 into '19. Same story really on TEN. We were clearly – for a couple of years we couldn’t drill because [indiscernible] back to drilling, ramp up through '18 into '19. The only thing that I’d add on TEN is I think there is the ability to actually take the production level beyond the facility limit which is 80,000 barrels a day. How much we’ve tested at the short period of time above 80, but I think there is a potential to add well capacity that we’d ultimately do there. So actually that’s the trajectory that you’re going to see through '18 into '19.

I'd forgotten about that - the aim is very much to get Jubilee back to 120K with infill drilling and eventually the full field development.

[sux_2bu] 27/4/2018 16:04

Fast line is closing in to cross down over the slow line on the macd. Still positive yet, but if it crosses and widens, it may be more than making a handle for the cup.

[sux_2bu] 27/4/2018 15:48

Buy around 193p

[romeike] 27/4/2018 15:46

No. Profit taking.

[sux_2bu] 27/4/2018 15:45

Debt and now unloved after their management update.

[teamwork1] 27/4/2018 15:41

Why is tlw down?

[alfiex] 27/4/2018 15:36

Oils up again so being manipulated down again

[sux_2bu] 27/4/2018 15:11

193p please Bob

[nicebut] 27/4/2018 14:11

I quite like that the first infill wells are on TEN, which isn`t interrupted so much. The new Jubilee wells will come on line at the end of the year just as the turret troubles are (hopefully) sorted.

[mcsean2164] 27/4/2018 12:07

Thanks Deans, tbh I wish we weren't in Kenya!

[deans] 27/4/2018 07:43

Hi mcsean on Kenya I can't recall anything more to that morning's RNS.