Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[mcsean2164] 16/1/2018 14:44

mp,

totally agree, the only spanner I can see is a massive take off in EV's and I gotta ask if all vehicles were EV (less efficient that petrol) where would the electricity come from? There's still no storage for wind/ solar.

[nicebut] 16/1/2018 14:17

Marshall and Linden lumping on the shorts. Typical.

[mariopeter] 16/1/2018 10:46

The rest of the world is expected to start drilling at $65/70 a barrel except they haven't being doing their homework for 3 years.

[mariopeter] 16/1/2018 10:01

This is the crux of the oil market. Shale v Opec.

All I can see is US shale struggling and I just have to point to US oil production levels to demonstrate that....why are they still below 10 mbopd?

Relentless world demand is supposed to increase by 1.5 mbopd over 2017 levels and even that's conservative. US shale output, to keep up, would need to produce 11 mbopd TODAY. The EIA have told us that this will not happen US oil output until the end of 2019. Meantime back at the ranch in 2018 we have a world oil shortage because (with the exception of Nigeria and maybe a tad from Libya) no one is producing more oil.

Any small supply hiccup has and will continue to push up prices. Don't be too surprised if we at $100 oil by the US driving season (or the Aramco float) when the maths has played out.

[mcsean2164] 16/1/2018 01:24

Mike says:
12/16/2017 AT 8:56 PM
I think we now have a better understanding of each other’s “opinions̶1; about the role that shale oil will play in America’s energy future. You are not adverse to debt, I am. I am able to see how severe the financial situation is for the American shale oil industry, your not.

hxxps://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/113557/great-oil-swindle. The American shale oil industry is two hundred billion dollars in debt and now forced to manage that debt with wells that produce less than 25 BOPD. And, as Chris implies in his article, not sufficient reserves to cover that debt. That is a disaster in the making. That will not improve with some wishful thinking about $100 oil. “Life may go on.” if the shale oil industry fails, but your predictions won’t. Debt is not “fine, and it is particularly not fine for an industry whose assets decline 45% the first 3 years, then 12-15% per year thereafter.

[xxnjr1] 15/1/2018 21:52

Worth bearing in mind perhaps the reason not much conventional oil was discovered was a major diversion of exploration capital away from conventional and into resource plays! Does it matter we only discovered 7 bn bbl conventional globally when there's 20bn, 30bn or 50bn bbls (or whatever the number is) sitting in the Permian, waiting to be tapped without much geological risk? Even Shell who've been somewhat agnostic are now waxing lyrical about shale. OK, there's probably gonna be some bottlenecks with fracking crews, or sand, or water etc at various points, but given the rate of technological progress over the years, solutions will likely be found to keep the momentum going. I kind of think "Shale" has OPEC over a barrel - at least for the next five years or so.

[celeritas] 15/1/2018 18:45

The U.S. shale resurgence has been one of the main themes in oil markets this year, while OPEC’s production cut deal to deplete the oil overhang and boost oil prices has been the other key development in 2017.

U.S. shale production is expected to grow over the next few years as the companies that survived the worst of the downturn showed resilience in the face of the lower-for-longer oil prices. But three years of low oil prices also led to the global oil industry slashing investments in conventional oil exploration, and deferring or revisiting development plans.

This has led to the lowest ever volumes of oil discoveries in 2017, Rystad Energy said last week. While the low level of discoveries is not an immediate threat to global oil supply, it could become such ten years down the road, according to Rystad Energy.

In ten years’ time, U.S. shale production may have peaked, at least according to OPEC that sees shale peaking after 2025, although the cartel has conceded that U.S. tight oil has defied previous forecasts and has increased production more than initially expected and will continue to do so in the short term.

This year has seen less than 7 billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered globally, a volume as low as last seen in the 1940s, Rystad Energy has estimated. What worries analysts the most is the fact that this year the reserve replacement ratio—the amount of discovered resources relative to the amount of production—was a mere 11 percent, compared to 50 percent in 2012, Sonia Mladá Passos, Senior Analyst at Rystad Energy, said.

[mcsean2164] 15/1/2018 18:07

Just goes to show that shale doesn't last forever. Over 50% more wells and less volumes, huge debts associated with shale companies etc.

[mariopeter] 15/1/2018 15:12

Have to try to understand this data as correlation of US production to number of rigs seems very poor. Is there a cap on production in the US and not sure I know what that is. Pipes? ships? People? Oil licences? Anyone know?


Date US oil production/no. of US rigs:


Jan 2014 8m/1400
Jan 2015 9.2m/600
June 2015 9.6m (peak)/600
Jan 2016 9.25m/400
Jan 2017 8.75m/600
Jan 2018 9.5m/939

[mariopeter] 15/1/2018 09:00

"It’s not all rosy!
Many investors are considering Tullow’s rapidly-improved balance sheet and booming production levels, allied with the improved outlook for oil prices in recent months, as reasons to plough into the business today. But the likelihood of prolonged oversupply still makes it a risk too far in my opinion. The Energy Information Administration said last week that US production would hit 11m barrels per day by the end of 2019". Royston Wild From fool.co.uk.

Oil market doesn't seem to agree on "oversupply" but hey nice to see a bear.

[nicebut] 15/1/2018 08:21

Some shorts been opened taking a couple of ii above .50%

[mcsean2164] 15/1/2018 01:02

I reckon we'll be ok until the Aramco IPO. After that...

[lbo] 14/1/2018 11:49

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2018/01/14/tullow-oil-plc-isnt-the-only-commodities-stock-id-sell-today/

[celeritas] 12/1/2018 23:18

The oil price crash was pure manipulation by the powers that be. The big boys can move anything on a whim. Come up with a reason to decimate it and then come up with a new reason for it to rocket.

[leoneobull] 12/1/2018 22:28

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Rig-Count-Shoots-Up-As-Oil-Nears-70.htmlUp 15 but oil price shrugged it off

[phillis] 12/1/2018 14:26

Take an A/C unit with you
Bon voyage ( I'm off to the Caribbean!)

[nicebut] 12/1/2018 13:43

Hi Phillis,

How you doing? Yup- agree with that- It was the header that just made me wonder aloud!

Off to Oz and NZ on Wednesday- Going to the tennis- Going to miss all the cricket unfortunately- though Ashes were a bit of a disaster, to say the least!

[pr4w2b0y] 12/1/2018 12:47

nicebut - it was a old market rumour and still relevant. I would change and rename the header but you can't after starting a thread.

[phillis] 12/1/2018 12:27

NB
I think the big oilies will keep their powder dry for now

You never know with the Chinese
Personally I would like to see the share price a lot higher on its own momentum before buyers put the company into play

[nicebut] 12/1/2018 12:13

At what point do folk think that this might actually be `poised for a take-over`? If ever..?

[spirito] 12/1/2018 11:29

inwards and upwards. few profit takers in town