Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[spirito] 09/1/2018 08:40

Sells into the news not unusual

[alfiex] 09/1/2018 08:31

Looks like everything is priced in, will not be surprised if no material rise tomorrow

[argylerich] 09/1/2018 08:24

Odey reducing again

[mariopeter] 09/1/2018 07:24

Paulbiya

Just to refine... group opex is $12, knock off 8000 barrels a day for royalties and debt interest looks a tad light .. I use 10% net debt. Still very big debt repayments i agree.

[paulbiya] 09/1/2018 06:59

Good post from LSE thanks Akthar Rob, I am hoping we get closer to £3 now, I want more, but one step at a time mate.Angus, talks that with oil in 60's they should meet the 2.5 times this year easily, below are scenarios of cash flow & earnings (Ignoring write downs) for 201890,000 Bpd Oil variable - different scenariosOpex - $10Admin cost - $110mInterest Payments - $200m (Will reduce as we continue to pay debt)Tax - $150m ( I am being generous)Oil = $50Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.05bnOil = $60Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.38bnOil = $70Cash flow ignoring debt payment + Capex = $1.71bnSo in above scenarios we have a range of $1.1 - $1.7bn, lets take the middle $1.3bn, assume Capex (Including explration $0.5bn , we are left with $0.8bn. This does not include the monies expected this year for Uganda c$0.2bn, so this year we could have $1bn to pay off in debt, which will reduce the net debt position but if they choose to pay the debt down could result in lower interest payments.Now, there could be a few bits of the assumption that can flex and I am not sure if I have missed anything off, but as we continue to benefit with this oil price and reduce debt our position gets stronger.I called $60 oil end of 2017 and was glad it superceeded, but if we assume an average price of $60 oil this year we reduce net debt down significantly.

[mariopeter] 09/1/2018 06:10

The article below is headed "doubts loom over rally" HOWEVER it also identifies that there are a lot more rigs spinning in the US from the low of 316 in June 2016...actually last Friday's number was 924 in the US.

Mr Oil Market (and I) are now asking why, with another 606 rigs spinning, has US oil output increased from 8.4m (low of 2016) to only 9.8m barrels per day now. Just what are these extra 606 rigs doing? The US oil output chart is below in the second link. Unlike the article below suggests, it all seems very inefficient to me. Infrastructure constraints I feel. Think we are in a good place here invested in Tullow.

[mariopeter] 09/1/2018 00:29

My oh my, I just saw WTI had breached 62.50 not long ago in Asia so technically that is very bullish. Equities will now have to start catching up as risk is now on the upside for equity investors.

Imho I think US oil production is capped by infrastructural constraints below 10 mbopd and that is a problem. If true, we are looking at an oil shortage this year. Put it this way, US production has been just under 10 mbopd for the last 3/4 years. The falling US rig count seems to support this view. (US rigs fell by 5 last week).

More data from EIA Tuesday at 5pm GMT and then API numbers out at 9.30pm GMT.

[mcsean2164] 08/1/2018 20:39

Hopefully it's not sell the news. I'm hopeful good results will reinforce the recovery.

[billionaire1] 08/1/2018 16:26

i think the good news has already been built into the present price

[cheek212] 08/1/2018 16:17

Odey is down again by another 0.05% today so total reported shorts over 0.5% now down to just 5.21%. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow ahead of Wednesday's trading update.

[paulbiya] 08/1/2018 15:52

I can see excitement is building ahead of the TLW update. One post today?!

[mariopeter] 08/1/2018 10:03

3D seismic acquisition in Guyana concluded in September 2017. Processing of data acquired is in its early stages to mature and rank identified prospects for future potential drilling.

[frontdoor bull] 06/1/2018 20:19

HTTP//www.hl.co.uk/news/2018/1/5/investors-sense-opportunities-in-big-oil-but-mind-the-gap

[xxnjr1] 06/1/2018 01:58

Tullow have already drilled about 5 wells in Guyana/Suriname/French Guyane but haven't found anything commercial as yet. Zillions($) of write downs followed.

XOM doing a really good job finding the stuff and drilling wells very efficiently. XOM clearly know what they are doing here.

Tullow have a lot to prove in my book. Maybe they know what they are doing in the offshore, but sometimes you do wonder! So far, XOM's more outboard patch seems the place to be.

[mariopeter] 05/1/2018 23:36

Guyana looks really hot property:



and Tullow not far behind timewise and gegraphically very close:

[nicebut] 05/1/2018 20:31

Odey closing shorts driving this latest push.

What are the upgrades Leoneobull? I havn`t seen any. IMO its good that its quiet here. Quietly onwards and upwards.

[argylerich] 05/1/2018 19:50

Odey must've consumed a large proportion of shares traded since their last reduction on 19th December

[argylerich] 05/1/2018 19:42

Big reduction in Odey short position

[leoneobull] 05/1/2018 19:24

Nobody has commented on the ratings agency upgrades

[mcsean2164] 05/1/2018 16:04

oil down, tullow up, great!

[middlesboroughfc] 05/1/2018 15:20

redy or not 240p coming

[eipgam] 05/1/2018 14:57

so we can all be millionaires?

[teamwork1] 05/1/2018 12:03

Needs to break 2.20

[moneybags] 04/1/2018 18:51

Tis a goodly rise,In the starting of our year of the lord 2018.

Regards , MoneyBags