Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[dealer1972] 22/6/2017 11:55

Indeed! :) rsi measure period is post rights issue so still in very oversold territory!If TLW release a positive trading statement this could be the catalyst for a reversal.The fact that the recent broker notes still point to 220p to 243p (yesterday) target prices building in the rights issue should also give some comfort, if you believe in them of course ;)

[runwaypaul] 22/6/2017 10:55

but of course they had the cash.

guess its all about wether oil can hold this level.

clearly TLW is going much lower if it cant.if it can, this is likely around the bottom.

its the shame they don't ring a bell.....

[runwaypaul] 22/6/2017 10:52

dealer

yes hard to compare the stocks been diluted @40% since then.....

[bigdazzler] 22/6/2017 10:49

Declan222 Jun '17 - 10:37 - 29320 of 29322 1 0
it's a shame companies rarely pull out good news and hit shorters hard




Well maybe they have no good news to pull out. Simples.

[dealer1972] 22/6/2017 10:46

12th Jan reference above was of course 2016 not this year :) Sp had dropped 20p as rsi has dropped from 30 to 20. 2p per rsi point. Last time share price was this low was beginning of March 2016 when oil was still below $40. I guess can't really compare though due to rights issue!I guess the real lookout for holders is that nasty gap at 110p! I don't think this will be filled though as likely a break out gap imo! But you never know lol ;)

[forcemode] 22/6/2017 10:37

Thanks for that explanation D1972!

[declan2] 22/6/2017 10:37

it's a shame companies rarely pull out good news and hit shorters hard

[dealer1972] 22/6/2017 10:25

The standard rsi cutler model measures over a 14 day period which is currently at 21.1, I think the chart above is measuring over a different time period. The lowest TLW has gone to in the past 18 months is 19.88 on the 21st March, before that 26.35 on the 12th Jan when we saw oil at is lowest point. Following both the above drops the TLW share price reversed very quickly upwards. Given the additional shorting activity, particularly by Odey et al over the past couple of weeks I'd expect the reversal to be quite quick as this is a perfect opportunity for them to close.

[forcemode] 22/6/2017 09:38

The RSI chart directly above is showing circa 12! Is it wrong?

[dealer1972] 22/6/2017 09:07

Rsi is a touch over 20 at the mo. Lowest over last few months was 19 before the bounce.

[jugears] 22/6/2017 09:01

IMO the management including The CEO need to leave as they are making an abortion of a job running this company,I am surprised that none of the larger investors have pushed for this. These used to be circa £15 a share.

[mariopeter] 22/6/2017 08:55

rsi nearly 10

[billionaire1] 22/6/2017 08:21

130 today ?

[mcsean2164] 21/6/2017 23:20

Wow! So why the doom and gloom, with that figure even at this oil price we should have a great 2017? Is it because research and exploration increases the budget significantly?

Just came across this :

Shale drilling decisions to be made in June. Could that be the reason for the low oil price or is it all just technical?

[mariopeter] 21/6/2017 23:12

yes here was an extract from the 2016 interim results:



Operating costs, depreciation and expenses

Underlying cash operating costs, which excludes depletion and amortisation and movements in underlift/overlift, amounted to $190 million; $17.7/boe (1H 2015: $220 million; $16.2/boe). The increase in operating costs per barrel is a result of the costs associated with the revised Jubilee operating procedure. Excluding the cost impact of the revised Jubilee operating procedures and associated lower production the underlying cash operating costs per barrel were $13.4/boe.


The link:

[runwaypaul] 21/6/2017 18:04

WTI 42.29

looks like it wants to take the 40's out.


a damn good slaughtering of the bulls in play.

42.14

if 42 goes 40 will arrive in days.

then who knows?

bearing in mind the dilution here by the rights issue,about 40% worth,if oil breaks under 40 and a panic sets in this could in theory go to around the 80/90p level.

130p double bottom will clearly bring in a lot of traders ,but no guarantee it will hold.

[wantmorethan24p] 21/6/2017 13:16

am 4.5k down

[mcsean2164] 21/6/2017 11:32

Hi mariopeter,

June presentation says $3.9bn, so let's hope that is correct.

$14 is amazingly good. I can't understand why we are at this price if that is the case. Does your $14 include current opex and capex? Is there a source for it?

Anyway, should be hearing about RBL soon, hopefully the current price is related to the rights issue and not fundamentals! Fingers crossed!

Anyone know why the chart above is showing so many unknown trades today?

[phowdo] 21/6/2017 11:32

Everyone is expecting 130.
So will probably not happen...

[runwaypaul] 21/6/2017 11:26

unlikely but certainly possible.

heavy traders will be looking for a way in...the market usually provides one.atb

[runwaypaul] 21/6/2017 11:24

as the saying goes

"no one rings a bell at the bottom".

im looking for the capitulation event too.

have sizeable firepower ready to be deployed if I see anywhere in 120s.

stopped out at 151 on my 157s as didn't like the action gl

[mariopeter] 21/6/2017 11:02

short term I suspect a big Boing soon. Bit like September last when the 50 ma ran under the 100 day in a similar fashion. RSI is suggesting a boing too. Who knows when the panic stops though. Usually preceded by capitulation of some sort.