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TLW Tullow Oil Plc

31.16
-0.34 (-1.08%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tullow Oil Plc LSE:TLW London Ordinary Share GB0001500809 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.34 -1.08% 31.16 31.04 31.20 31.72 30.92 31.40 4,178,068 16:35:01
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs 1.78B 49.1M 0.0338 9.18 451.36M
Tullow Oil Plc is listed in the Crude Petroleum & Natural Gs sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TLW. The last closing price for Tullow Oil was 31.50p. Over the last year, Tullow Oil shares have traded in a share price range of 21.84p to 39.94p.

Tullow Oil currently has 1,454,137,162 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil is £451.36 million. Tullow Oil has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 9.18.

Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

Showing 33151 to 33174 of 68725 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
21/3/2017
22:12
Olieslim, I am not quite sure what your question is but I will not be looking to get back into TLW short term as I see oil capped at $60 (as Fraserdeam said) As soon as prices rise above that then shale oil becomes economical and supply is increased. I initially thought that increased demand from India and China would create more demand but that doesn't seem to be happening. With the rate of technological advancements engines are becoming more efficient and this will probably continue at a faster pace. The one reason that I could see for oil going up would be the reduced investment in exploration and existing supply reducing at some point. Since TLW is directly effected by the PoO this needs to be a huge consideration. I am sure someone will have the break even price that TLW needs not only to extract but also to service their debt. It seems by going to the market they are aware that even after TEN has come online they are not capable of doing so without going cap in hand to their shareholders. I was in Barc, RBS and TW. who also had rights issues and from that I learnt that you are going to be in for a long time if you ever want to be back to the price when it was announced. As far as I know barc and RBS still haven't got there. In my mind there is something really bad in a company if it has to do a rights issue. Up until Friday I still had faith in TLW recovering but that all vanished with the announcement
alexgc
21/3/2017
18:08
Alex, Fraser, if Brent goes (it's trying right now) goes through $50 tonight will you wake up at $46?

I really don't like what they do to the goats but at the least now it looks they'll have to come of them to throw some dough against the screen.

olieslim
21/3/2017
12:29
My apologies net debt will be $3.9 (not $2.9) after rights issue proceeds. Still a huge de-gear. May have to release some mullah from the farm out of Kenya which is enormous. Edited the post above. Thanks Frazboy.
mariopeter
21/3/2017
11:37
POO likely to stay 50-60, shale output will rise with anything higher but costs of drilling shale wells now up with demand so they are not as profitable, external costs of developing offshore oil down 30% to 40% sine the highs and internal operator costs are also much lower, they can now make a profit at $50 but it takes time to feel reassured of this, drilling tie-back wells such as ghan to existing facilities, and onshore in kenya much lower break-even.
fraserdean
21/3/2017
10:50
I believe they are hedged to $60 now.
robo175
21/3/2017
10:44
I personally don't see oil prices going anywhere soon. Fracking costs have come down significantly over the last few years and this will put a cap on the PoO. For this reason I don't see oil stocks going anywhere for quite some time. Last year TLW had a hedge for quite a chunk of oil in the $70s, I assume that this has expired now and TLW will be selling their oil at a much lower price, even though the PoO is higher. (I may be wrong on this) I have sold out of TLW for a massive loss as I see the share price drifting lower in the next few months, probably close to 130. There are other shares out there will less risk and uncertainty.
alexgc
21/3/2017
10:34
The debt isn't $2.9bn
frazboy
21/3/2017
10:21
It seems they want to try and keep hold of more of the Kenyan assets and will probably farm down (like Uganda) so they get a free carry on development costs.

Debt now moves to probably $3.9b (corrected) and will be approx 150% of equity which is more manageable now (particularly as you have a West African subsidiaries throwing out $1b of cash each year at $50 oil). Expect share price increases (maybe after we go ex-rights) because of this massive de-gearing and de-risking.

One would have expected the Saudis to have had a chat with the Russians to see if they could all firm up on their oil supply restrictions. Also don't forget the medium term for oil as these three years of under-investment will have caused supply problems. Don't think the electric car market will have done too much damage by the time these supply shortages turn up.

mariopeter
21/3/2017
10:19
I,m only trying to be helpful , What about flipping a coin ,
casino444
21/3/2017
08:58
Typo is correct
Underwriting is insurance
The underwriters get their fee and hope they dont have to work too hard to dispose of any not taken up

EDIT: the underwriters are ultimately on the hook but it is rare for them to be left with stock

phillis
21/3/2017
08:33
thanks for that clarification typo...
steve73
21/3/2017
08:21
For those unfamiliar with lasped rights rump placings, here's what happened in the case of RPC, dated 27 Feb. In other words, lapsed rights were worth about 240p per right (a fair price at the time). The proceeds went to the shareholders, not the underwriters.

Following the announcement earlier today regarding valid acceptances under the Rights Issue announced by RPC on 9 February 2017, RPC confirms that Deutsche Bank and Jefferies have procured subscribers for all the remaining 3,455,880 New Ordinary Shares for which valid acceptances were not received, representing approximately 4 per cent. of the total number of New Ordinary Shares, at a price of 905.0 pence per New Ordinary Share.

The net proceeds from the placing of such New Ordinary Shares (after the deduction of the Issue Price of 665 pence per New Ordinary Share and the expenses of procuring subscribers including any brokerage and commissions and value added tax thereon) will be paid (without interest) to Shareholders who have not taken up their entitlements pro rata to their lapsed provisional allotments, save that individual amounts of less than GBP5 will not be paid to such persons but will be aggregated and retained for the benefit of RPC. Cheques in respect of any such amounts are expected to be despatched to the relevant Shareholders by no later than 10 March 2017.

typo56
21/3/2017
08:07
TLW marked up a bit this morning, on DB upgrade.
typo56
21/3/2017
08:06
What you shouldn't do (IMO) is to buy before and NOT take up your rights, as this will simply be handing on any benefits to the underwriters (perhaps, unless the share price drops below 130).

Actually I've tried to point out the underwriters don't benefit. They don't receive fully paid shares at 130p for any rights that are not taken up by holders. They get placed, and the proceeds go to the lapsed rights holders. The holders receive pretty much the same as if they'd sold their nil paid rights in the market (i.e. TLW ex rights minus 130p). So if you let your rights lapse you're not exactly losing out, it's equivalent to selling part of your holding.

typo56
21/3/2017
08:01
francis.. IMO (but please bear in mind that I'm not totally confident in my understanding)

IF you consider the company to be accurately priced at the current c. 200p/# then buying now but keeping enough dry powder to exercise your rights would make perfect sense.

In an ideal world, buying after the 6th at a lower price (c.176p) would make equally good sense.

If you think that the share price could be manipulated by shorters or rights traders, there are valid arguments that you would be better off buying either before (and taking the rights) or after.

What you shouldn't do (IMO) is to buy before and NOT take up your rights, as this will simply be handing on any benefits to the underwriters (perhaps, unless the share price drops below 130).

...and in the meantime if the oil price goes up or down, then this will also influence whether you'd have been better buying now or later.

FWIW, I sold my holding on the day of the announcement, and am looking to either get back in with 2/3rds before the 6th or fully after, depending on where the share price is at the time.... or possibly not at all.

steve73
21/3/2017
07:31
Saudis diversify more away from PoO:
olieslim
21/3/2017
07:26
No-one can answer that with certainty. Buying after is simpler (no need to deal with rights).
typo56
21/3/2017
07:16
So as a potential new investor do I buy today or after 6th April?
francis55
21/3/2017
07:09
mike456, I'm not trying to argue that the rights issue will be a success for existing shareholders, I just don't agree in your example that underwriters will sit on a paper profit of 67p per share. That's because if shares trade ex-rights at a premium to the rights price then the rights rump not taken up by holders will get placed, and underwriters won't have to pick them up. The procceds of the placing doesn't profit the underwriters, it pays holders for their lapsed rights. How else would lapsed rights have a value?

It follows that if the rump gets placed there won't be the force of the underwriters driving down the price to 'realise their gain'.

casino444: it appears the blind leading the blind on here !!

Then please enlighten us. Where am I going wrong?

typo56
21/3/2017
06:03
I think Casino444 has it spot on with post 748... and as typo56 said earlier yesterday "Only trading opportunities from confusion!"

That's precisely why we smaller holders should be discussing the process here... Unfortunately there are many who seek to profit from this collective ignorance.

steve73
21/3/2017
05:30
And remember this issue was in discussion weeks ago, the price has been slipping for some time as a result, it's likely current big shareholders were sounded out!
bookbroker
20/3/2017
23:28
You may think I'm blind but at least I've made a profit on TLW
mike456
20/3/2017
23:20
it appears the blind leading the blind on here !!
casino444
20/3/2017
23:06
I must be looking at it from a different angle to you

In my example two of the original shareholders shares would have fallen by 33p each if the £1.67 ex rights price held up, so getting the 67p would only compensate for their loss in value in the event of a "successful" placing

If the placing wasn't quite so successful then surely there would only be downside for the existing shareholders as the ex rights price would fall below £1.67

Maybe my example wasn't the best but I still believe that there is a higher likelihood of losses for existing shareholders when a rights issue comes along. After all somebody has to bear the costs of the issue and in my experience this is usually the existing shareholders.

mike456
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