Tullow Oil Share Discussion Threads

[bookbroker] 20/3/2017 18:16

Sux - be a good boy, and go and play on the M1!

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 18:14

So the BoD are using suggestive language.

As Fat Malc said - "it's a Scam."

[oilretire] 20/3/2017 18:09

Plus in the RNS it states the BoD are going to use raised finances try and buy other assets

No it does not. It's only a 'could' type statement, not a 'they will'.

And if you read my posts yesterday you'll see they ruled it out.

But then again your not here to read or engage in sensible discussion are you.

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 17:55

It's going down.

[bookbroker] 20/3/2017 17:32

I doubt it, they are not that stupid, and you are just being melodramatic, problem with these BB's is that small time penny share punters put out alarmist statements and small investors read these, panic and sell, Aidan Heaney has too much to lose, we were here last year and it recovered, ok oil price not so good, but if that is the case then the Saudi Aramco deal is firmly off the table, and that will be disastrous for Saudi Arabia!

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 17:29

Tullow Oil
Tullow has come to the well again, this time the equity market, where it has announced a 25 for 49 rights issue at 130p to raise £607m. At a 45% discount the shares were fully underwritten which is no great surprise, a good deal of hands being rubbed together at the long list of associated investment banks. The money will shore up the finances which are now looking a lot better than they were and with the debt restructuring and asset sales the balance sheet is almost unrecognisable, it even has cash coming inwards… On the subject of asset sales the company announce that CNOOC has exercised its pre-emption rights in the farm-down to Total in Uganda and will take 50% of the deal which of course doesnt affect Tullow.

Tullow came out of the bucket list in January at 315p having been one of last years best performers, up 203% on the year. I didnt see this coming but did feel that such a performance in a £3bn market cap stock would be difficult to repeat. It won’t go back in yet but shareholders who sold at that price would find it easy to buy back at this mornings 202p, those who didnt sell can take solace by being offered fully underwritten stock at 130p, knowing that part of their money is going to underwriters, what a scam…

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 17:27

The rights is not enough to pay off the debts. Plus in the RNS it states the BoD are going to use raised finances try and buy other assets....so it's a dangerous game really. Could all easily collapse.

As Fat Malcy blog states - its a SCAM

[bookbroker] 20/3/2017 17:25

Be taken over soon, has world class assets, and even with debt it will be likely taken out by an international major, suspect Chinese might like to get a foothold into Africa!

[mcsean2164] 20/3/2017 17:13

Interesting market reaction to DB v TLW



Obviously very disappointed in the share price this year and should have sold at 300p but we are where we are. Am tempted to top up more at this level. Does anyone really think share price will drift to 130p and why? Tullow has excellent low oil cost assets. Is about to reduce its debt and interest repayments. Do people really think it is worth so little with a strengthened balance sheet?

I admit, I took my eye off the ball here but are things really that bad?

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 16:07

good luck, when your investment is near worthless, just remember, it's only money

[bigsi2] 20/3/2017 16:03

As we seem to be making baseless share price predictions ... why not make it 7p

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 15:50

It won't be far off 70p by year end, or certainly next year.

[olieslim] 20/3/2017 15:39

Nonsense.

And the share price won't go that low.

Just let the sellers out and pick the opportunity that suits you.

P.S. @16.35
Tullow Oil plc TLW 197.50 -4.80 (-2.37%) 1.80B 19.19M 202 202 192.045
P.P.S.

[sux_2bu] 20/3/2017 14:12

Afren mk2.

[casino444] 20/3/2017 13:12

Don't buy now way to high , don't know why there was all that buying Friday , they should have waited

[mreasygoing] 20/3/2017 13:06

Wait to buy at 130p or just below. Patience.

[mike456] 20/3/2017 12:41

I took a punt on TLW when the share price went down to about £1.80 last summer and sold half of them for just over £3.00 a couple of months or so ago.
Even though I had already recouped most of my initial investment I am always wary of keeping hold of shares when the company comes knocking for additional investment by way of a rights issue to help sure up a balance sheet position.
Like a few previous posters I believe that the share price trends towards the rights issue price after a few months regardless of what the theoretical ex-rights price would have you believe
For this reason I sold the rest of my holding and will watch the share price over the coming months for another possible buying opportunity, but in the meantime I wish all holders the best of luck with their own decisions as to whether to take up the rights or not.

[typo56] 20/3/2017 12:35

Sorry for another post re the maths, but, as a non-shareholder, if I bought 49 shares at Friday's close price of say 203p, I could subscribe for rights over 25 shares at 130p, so I end up with 74 shares that cost me 179p. Suppose that I now sold all those shares short at 203p - I've made an instant profit of 24p per share.

Yes, but....

You only qualify for the rights if you hold the shares at close on 5th April.

At open 6th April the share price will fall to reflect the shares no longer come with rights. So, if the price at 5th April is 203p, you could expect it to fall the next day to 178.3p (all things being equal in an efficient market).

If you are short TLW at 203p at close on 5th April you will indeed be in profit on those shares. The problem is, you will also be short the 25 for 49 nil paid shares (TLWN) at 0p. It will then cost you to close that position (on above figures about 48.3p per TLWN), leaving you no better off:-

178.3 + 25/49 * 48.3 = 203

There's no such thing as a fee lunch with rights issues. Only trading opportunites from confusion!

[puzzler2] 20/3/2017 11:06

Steve - typically the share price drifts down to the rights issue price, so perhaps close to 130p?

[romeike] 20/3/2017 10:25

I think there is more support at $50 than people are giving credit for. People are too ready to suck up the bear story profligate in the press.

[steve73] 20/3/2017 09:57

So what would you expect them to fall to puzzler..?

>>>quote>;>
Puzzler2 18 Mar '17 - 12:08 - 28694 of 28711 1 0

Sorry for another post re the maths, but, as a non-shareholder, if I bought 49 shares at Friday's close price of say 203p, I could subscribe for rights over 25 shares at 130p, so I end up with 74 shares that cost me 179p. Suppose that I now sold all those shares short at 203p - I've made an instant profit of 24p per share. That says to me that logically, this arbitrage opportunity should cause the share price to now slide until a day or so before 5 April (subject to the market effect of hedge funds closing out their short positions).
>>>unquote

Even buying at (say) 140 there's still an arbitrage opportunity, surely?

[manics] 20/3/2017 07:46

james: if a changing situation has clouded your investment such that you don't fully understand it anymore (and I'm not being judgemental here) then there's your answer.

[olieslim] 20/3/2017 07:31

Interesting point re: lack of investment:



And about the Saudi having cut 'so much', somewhere somebody made a point that the cut would be bigger in the beginning and -to compensate- smaller in months after, which I think the market could interprete (wrongly?) to use it to create bearish momentum.

And a last point re the Saudi's, I read somewhere they are refining more crude themselves now. That crude used obviously won't show up in the numbers, but the end product nevertheless will have a (slight?) dampening effect on the demand back up the chain?

[james190] 20/3/2017 06:15

i am holding long position is it best to dump it guys with the rights issue etc happening ??