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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Trinity Mirror LSE:TNI London Ordinary Share GB0009039941 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 85.70p 85.00p 86.00p - - - 0 01:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Media 623.2 81.9 23.0 3.7 258.98

Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

Showing 7426 to 7448 of 7575 messages
Chat Pages: 303  302  301  300  299  298  297  296  295  294  293  292  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
26/2/2018
09:39
harry-david - I agree with you; my point was intended to illustrate some immediate low having fruit.
twixy
25/2/2018
23:46
Harry lets hope so it will be an amazing year, and could come sooner than a lot of people think.
cityconindex
25/2/2018
21:36
Twixy, it is digital revenue growth, not the cost savings in digital that I think must happen to really drive the share price. Rising interest rates and say £40 million in synergy savings could double the price, but a £40 million jump in digital revenue would more than treble it. I get the feeling the latter is on the cards, the crescendo of attacks on Facebook and YouTube now nearly every day could lead us down some very interesting paths this year.
harry_david
25/2/2018
18:47
With the N&S deal closing on Wednesday TNI will get the opportunity to properly look under the bonnet and start making some savings. N&S have double the size of digital team as TNI, with less revenue generating functionality so should show some quick benefits.
twixy
24/2/2018
13:04
I think they weren't buys but big sells from Aviva - there were several 600k+ transactions going through. Annual results are on Monday the 5th of March. Looking forward to it!
foot in mouth
24/2/2018
08:58
The week ahead may see the break above 83p that has haunted tni for months, been some big buys in the market.
cityconindex
16/2/2018
22:17
Kazoom,TNI has a successful and growing local set of services which is unique. The national sites are larger than the Express and Star sites but there could still be mutual exchanges between them. Digital display advertising is the growth area. The disgraceful behaviour of Google and Facebook will soon benefit all legitimate online news sites.
harry_david
16/2/2018
20:24
Good point Harry I had meant to mention that too. So since their last update in October, Aviva disposed of c. 3.5m shares leaving themselves with 6.8m (2.9%). Presumably they will continue to sell down the remainder, which could take them best part of the year, but the no longer have to notify so we won't know. I'm not convinced that their sales have been a particularly large drag on the share-price but it obviously has to have had some effect - that probably won't disappear as a factor until the autumn. I hadn't spotted that Odey had closed the short as in fact did Old Mutual. So at the same time as Aviva sold 1.3% of the total shares in issue, Odey & OM bought back c. 1.2% so that's quite symmetrical. Curiously though Aviva's statement still showed they had 0.7% out on loan , but this might just be timing differences. As I say I'm not sure this is much of a big deal in the overall scheme of things but it is at least one of the "complex moving parts" that we can now eliminate. In other news - there is no news. I've been a little surprised that people (reading around various places) generally seem to find the takeover of N&S so inscrutable. That could well mean that it could be a year, once the benefits start to show, before we really see any significant reaction to the deal. I hope not but who can tell. I know that you study the digital growth quite closely so I wonder, what do you make of the suggestions I have read that N&S's digital offering is more advanced than TNI's? If true then aside from the synergies, there could be a boost to the growth case for digital?
kazoom
16/2/2018
16:53
Aviva is getting near the end of its selling, now under 3% so we won't hear from them again. Odey who looks to have borrowed Aviva stock for his short, has also covered.
harry_david
15/2/2018
11:19
Edmon Jackson on iii trinity mirror. Is this £209 million small cap media group at a genuine turning point? Most charts show Trinity Mirror (TNI) in a volatile downtrend from 234p in 2014 to a recent 66p low, but long-term followers know it has been volatile since a 20p range in 2010. This partly reflects contradictions of strong cash flow enabling high dividends and buybacks, albeit a mature business seemingly stuck in revenue decline as new media proliferates. The Mirror also tends to be seen as having older loyal readers - dying out - with those young and left-inclined politically, on social media. Hardly surprising, therefore, the group's turnaround strategy has involved cost-cutting and forging digital platforms; though, according to a latest trading update, total revenues continue down, by a consistent 9% during 2017. Fearing a slow death, at about 76p the stock is priced on a forward price/earnings (PE) multiple of 2.2, yielding nearly 8% covered nearly six times by earnings forecasts. And it explains a current radical move: the £127 million acquisition of Northern & Shell, a holding company for the Express and Star newspapers and various celebrity magazine titles such as OK! Management is raising the risk/reward profile, hence Trinity Mirror shares will re-rate more vigorously if it works, or stay pressured. Can "media scavenging" prove long-term value accretive? The 9 February announcement wasn't "new news"; talks with Northern - the holding company for proprietor Richard Desmond - were announced on 10 January 2017 and affirmed last September as involving all its publishing assets than just a minority stake. Trinity's chief executive describes this as "a really exciting moment...iconic titles...a growing digital presence, stable revenue and an excellent fit with Trinity Mirror." Consideration is split across £47.7 million cash initially, £59 million over 2020 to 2023, with the balance of £20 million via new Trinity Mirror ordinary shares. The deal is said to be "materially earnings enhancing" in the first year of ownership, with "more robust revenue" due to less reliance on print advertising; and £20 million annualised cost synergies (staff cuts etc) generating "strong cash flows...financial flexibility for investment, support for pension liabilities and potential return of capital to shareholders." All this sounds most interesting financially, although it does beg the questions editorially about how political opposites of The Mirror and Express will work together post-redundancies. A 27 February circular will apparently reveal more detail than figures later in the 9 February RNS: Northern's 11.8% revenue decline in 2015 and 12.0% in 2016 "reflecting both cover price discounting and a fall in print advertising revenue". Circulation revenue then increased in 2017 as discounts reversed and digital revenue rose strongly (mind, likely from a low base). Northern's 2017 adjusted EBITDA is estimated at £34 million, and, if this can be substantiated beyond window-dressing for a sale, then, with an additional £20 million cost savings from a merger, there is reason to pay more attention to Trinity Mirror. What isn't yet disclosed, but anyone can view online via the Companies House free website, is Northern's 2016 operating loss on continuing operations of £17 million after a £10 million loss in 2015. Quite likely Richmond Desmond had had enough and was willing to sell for £127 million, a 65% discount to net assets of £360 million, even after a deducting a £64 million pension liability. In fairness to Trinity, it achieved £15 million synergies from its acquisition of Local World newspapers in November 2015, significantly de-leveraging within two years. On a financial basis, Northern is a logical next-step acquisition. Trinity Mirror - financial summary Consensus estimates year to 31 Dec/1 Jan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 2019 to 1 Jan Turnover (£ million) 706 664 636 593 713 IFRS3 pre-tax profit (£m) 9.7 -161 81.6 67.2 76.5 Normalised pre-tax profit (£m) 75.6 75 81.3 92.2 127 118 119 Operating margin (%) 13.5 11.3 12.3 14.9 18.3 IFRS3 earnings/share (p) 6.7 -39 27.4 29.6 24.8 Normalised earnings/share (p) 23.6 42.5 27.3 39.2 42.9 34.1 35.0 Earnings/share growth (%) -11.2 80.3 -35.8 19.6 9.4 -20.5 2.7 Price/earnings multiple (x) 1.8 2.2 2.2 Annual average historic P/E (x) 4.3 6.0 2.3 2.0 Cash flow/share (p) 33.9 27.4 34.3 26.7 26.5 Capex/share (p) 2.2 3.0 2.5 1.4 -2.3 Dividends per share (p) 3.0 5.2 5.8 5.7 6.0 Yield (%) 6.9 7.5 7.8 Covered by earnings (x) 6.3 8.1 6.0 5.8 Net tangible assets per share (p) -106 -43.2 -33.4 -77.9 -115 Source: Company REFS Is Simon Fox really up to the job as chief executive? I recall being horrified when Simon Fox was initially appointed in 2012. No prior media experience and coming from embattled retailer HMV, it was a potential disaster for shareholders. He has a persistent critic in Roy Greenslade, media commentator for The Guardian who is professor of journalism at City University - he lambasted Fox in a column 18 months ago for wasting millions on a failed new daily paper launch, and axing journalists' pay while earning £2.35 million a year. "He lacks a strategy to do anything more than wield an axe...the group's website, despite various revamps, is hopelessly inadequate because the company has failed to invest enough." Greenslade has yet to fire a shot on the terms of the Northern deal, but wrote in September 2017: "It may prolong Trinity Mirror's life, but its future is uncertain...a shotgun marriage by commercial necessity...there is no reason to think that new ownership will arrest the circulation falls..." His gripe is on principle: media assets need owners who make editorial content their top priority. The late Peter Preston similarly opined: "There needs to be a spark of creativity...a sense that journalism counts for something...think lifeboats tossed in tumultuous seas, two random ageing souls hugging each other for temporary safety. Think this deal, only as good as next year's bottom line." Certainly, be aware of editorial veterans' views; but it's a Guardian one. Rupert Murdoch practised a ruthless financial approach, with an interest in editorial, but is not among their heroes. They are right to point out a risk, however, Trinity Mirror can appear dependent on acquisitions to drive financial progress; although on the stock's current rating that may be (more than) fully priced in. Scope to upgrade medium-term forecasts Care is needed interpreting the 9 February update, lest it prove a snapshot. The stock is up, helped by a "marginally ahead of consensus" narrative versus said forecasts: adjusted operating profit of £121 million and earnings per share of 34.6p (although the table shows 34.1p). Within a 9% publishing revenue decline for 2017, print is down 11% - somewhat offset by digital's 7% growth, which doubled from 6% in H1 to 12% in Q4. Also, within the totals, publishing's slippage has eased from 10% in H1 to 8% in H2, although it's still a way off arresting decline. Otherwise, strong cash generation has reduced net debt to £10 million, and asset returns plus other factors have helped the pension deficit down 19% to £378 million. A total dividend of 5.8p per share is proposed, slightly over 5.7p published consensus, for a 7.6% historic yield with the share price currently 76p. From a financial perspective it's possible to regard such a dividend as underpinning medium-term risk, with earnings cover over five times and set to rise given the proposed acquisition is said earnings-enhancing. It will be interesting to see what forecasts evolve, maybe with Numis/Peel Hunt given conservative guidance as company brokers, so Trinity can continue to beat it. A financial critique would be Trinity as a classic "cigar butt" i.e. plain cheap albeit no real long-term future, which explains why management is scouring for more of them to prop the show up. If the music stops then what's the asset position to fall back on? At 2 July 2017, the balance sheet showed goodwill/intangibles over 1.4 times net assets, hence the table showing persistent negative net tangible assets. I can warm to Trinity's "scavenging", having seen smaller oil E&P companies become mid-size over years, picking off cash generative assets divested by majors, like in the "declining" North Sea, although sweating physical assets could be said another game from creating media content. Stock to Watch: Trinity Mirror So, the stance on the stock currently boils down to your risk appetite: a speculative buy stance can be justified; the situation feeling quite like my drawing attention in May 2011 at 50p, on grounds strong cash generation would overcome fears of financial distress. Enough traders may follow the upgrades/yield story than worry about sniping from The Guardian. Speculative buy. ii publishes information and ideas which are of interest to investors. Any recommendation made in this article is based on the views of the writer, which do not take into account your circumstances. This is not a personal recommendation. If you are in any doubt as to the action you should take, please consult an authorised investment adviser. ii do not, under any circumstances, accept liability for losses suffered by readers as a result of their investment decisions. The value of your investments, and the income derived from them, may go down as well as up. You may not get back all the money that you invest.
cityconindex
15/2/2018
11:15
This is an opinion from another site not mine and seems relevant DYOR Date posted Tuesday 12:50 Subject at 80p great acquisiton and chart strength Opinion Strong BUY Message I've spent a lot of time analysing this TNI acquisition of N&S and concluded that it creates a lot of value. it is very hard to know how to value TNI due to the moving parts - declining industry, pension deficit (PD), debt, good dividend, share buy backs. i have 5 basic reasons to feel there might be share price strength from here. 1 - analysis of acquisition 2 - discounted cash flow 3 - Banks, Pension Trustees, Pension regulator 4 - interpretation of mgt 5 - technical analysis of chart 1. the basics of the deal are simple enough. TNI is buying N&S on the same multiple of its own valuation. N&S is arguably a poor quality business but it has a broader spread of revenues, including digital, and a much lower PD. The big figure is £20m of savings. It is logical there will be saving by merging 2 businesses and the value of these savings i estimate to be 35p a share! 2. i have modelled TNI and N7S using discounted CASH flows. Fairly simplistically. I assumed that sales would decline faster than the recent rates, and i assumed that costs would only decline at half the rate of sales. For 6 years TNI has managed to reduce costs as quickly as sales so i see both of these assumptions as conservative. This model shows that TNI will hit zero profitability in 2022! No-one doubts that TNI is in decline but i don't here much talk that they will not be profitable in 4 years time. So again this seems conservative assumptions. The sum total of the CASH flows in this scenario is £600m which covers the current equity valuation, debt and PD with room to spare - i.e. it implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 10p a share. Interestingly when one adds in N&S and the £20m cost saving - this extends the 'life of TNI' by 2 years! And adding the sum of the declining CASH flows is £900m which with the debt from acquisition, the payments to N&S Pension, and N&S pension implies the current equity value is undervalued by about 40p a share (on the increased equity base post acquisition) so this model may or may not be accurate but it doe again imply that the acquisition adds 30p to the value of TNI compared to pre acquisition. 3. Having just been repaid in full the £400m from a few years back the banks have finaced the majority of this deal and lent TNI more money - surely this implies they are comfortable with the future CASH flows of the business. The Pension trustees for all 6 pension schemes involved have given approval of the deal. I compare this to the delays at Coats and the post Carillon world. They have approved the deal and they will also allow TNI to increase its dividend and make share buy backs and a return of capital (hidden further down the documents) Even the Pension regulator have given the deal its approval and also must feel that TNi has sufficient surpklus CASH flows to be allowed to pay dividends, buy back shares and plan a return of capital. 4. Mgt were very confident at the analysts briefing. They have quoted £20m cost savings but have said that there are (quote) "very, very, comfortable" with that assumption. the iii article is the first to mention the assets being bought £300m of assets... now i don't know what exactly those are but there must be some surplus machines, buildings, land ... TNI is valued at 200m so 10m or 20m from asset disposlas is very significant to the share price. 5. TNI share price has been volatile. not surprise - a fixed cost business in decline with high debt and high pension responsibilities. It has also been in decline for the last 3 years post the 2009 bounce from the 20p lows. The situation today though is critically changed. TNI revenues have held up better than forecast 5 years ago TNI mgt has demonstrated their ability to cut costs Debt (pre acquisition) was down to only £10m (from £400m 6 years back!) Pension liabilities have been partly insured, future rises have been capped and the global equity sell off last week, the UK comments today are all expecting future interest rate rises faster than expected - rises mean lower pension deficits!! And TNI has shown it can be a consolidator in the industry. This enables it to buy businesses cheaply and take out costs. As the newspaper market gets tougher more and more smaller players will have to capitulate and sell to the highest (and only!) bidder TNI The positivity is all reflected in the chart. The price has now risen from 66p to 80p on big volume and a rise above 80p is a break out from the downtrend and confirms that TNI would actually be in an UPTREND from the lows of 2012 at 20p. The upside - 120p short term and 200p over a couple of years is possible is the cost cutting and asset disposals go well and interest rates rise. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL TNI is in my top5
cityconindex
15/2/2018
10:29
It may be the Uk Index linked over 5 year bond yield that is the benchmark.
gfrae
15/2/2018
10:14
Hi Harry, every half percentage point up in the discount rate chosen to calculate the present value of future liabilites reduces the déficit £140m. As a matter of fact, this is not the long bond rate, though obviously the long bond rates are an important marker for choosing the appropriate discount rate. Reagrding the future level on interest rates, I'd be very wary of your confident line of thinking. No one has a handle on the future.. And no pension trustee is going to be so blase.
cjohn
15/2/2018
10:03
hi XXX, You're right. I should have said, they had to do A deal; but not necessarily this one and not necessarily now. In terms of earnings trends: you're assuming N + S earnings will decline this coming year. However, it seems N & S trashed their own earnings by reducing cover price too much a couple of years ago. So in spite of the dire revenue trends across the industry, revenue may hold up better at N & S this coming year. In any case, I agree with you that it was not a cheap takeover; and all depends on whether they can cut out duplicate costs. I'd guess they can. So though far from ideal, the takeover does make sense for me. PS I'm still on the sidelines. Don't hold any TNI shares.
cjohn
15/2/2018
09:05
For me the pension position is simple. The company stated two years ago that every half percentage point up in long bonds reduced the accounting deficit by £140 million. The rate today is 0.3% higher than on the 31st December. Therefore the accounting deficit today is down to about £300 million. By Christmas it could be eliminated. As I said once before this could be a better way to make money than shorting gilts.
harry_david
14/2/2018
23:56
CJohn, when you say 'they had to do this' The same applied to Northern. Being unquoted, they also had less room to manoeuvre. TNI could have applied themselves to other media assets eg the Johnston Press situation or waited for a further year to come back to Northern. Remember the earnings you quote are for last year and we know the trends. On a stand alone basis, they have paid more like x8 ebitda:ev for current year earnings. Thus I am voting against the deal on grounds of price.
xxx
14/2/2018
15:00
Re the pension funds,does anyone know if RPI rises in TNI pensions are limited to 5% ? Mine certainly was and the IFA I was forced to use told me that most pension funds had this limit. If that is the case then the TNI pension deficit should disappear in the event of inflation in excess of 5%. I am not suggesting that we are about to enter a period of high inflation,just something to bear in mind perhaps ?
gfrae
14/2/2018
11:53
Hi CJohn, .. I would so love to have a sunny temperament like yours. Hah ! My comment was made on the perhaps simplistic basis that changes to interest rates (upwards) would have a greater = lowering effect on 100% of the liabilities (pension obligations)than on the smaller %age of bond-related assets to pay for them, hence closing the actuarial and accounting deficits...... Of course, we might also start to experience in the UK the recent American phenomenon of static, not to say falling life expectancy.....which would also (?) be good for the TNI share price....(assuming pensioners died faster than readers). You can see why my partner loves what she calls my "British sense of humour " ;-> ATB
extrader
14/2/2018
11:25
Hi Kazoom, Yes, you're right. The element of deferred tax is what gives the varying figures. The pension trustess SHOULD adore the Company. Anything less would be staggering ingratitude.
cjohn
14/2/2018
11:22
Extrader, I would so love to have a sunny temperament like yours. Sadly, any significant rise in interest t rates will certainly be accompanied by a drop in bond values and, most likely, a drop in share prices - markets seem over-valued to me.
cjohn
13/2/2018
17:51
Excess capital yep that would be nice.
cityconindex
13/2/2018
16:32
Hi all, ...Imagine if the pension schemes were already well-funded ... Given a little rise in longterm interest rates, the actuaries' wish may come true ! ATB
extrader
13/2/2018
15:25
All good points as ever CJohn - I think I can fill in a couple of gaps now. Re - the quoted Enterprise Value of £184.2m. I don't believe TNI will be getting any cash with the deal, but the £71.9m payments to the pension N&S fund are the gross figure - TNI will get "tax relief" on this and that I believe squares the £14.4m gap you highlighted. I expressed my puzzlement a few posts back as to the scale of the pension contributions given that the scheme was only adverse by £23m (Dec-16) as you say that was the IAS19 figure, in fact the last actuarial deficit was £64m - the next review I believe is due soon. So yes the pensions schemes remain a massive call on cash in the near term. Imagine if the pension schemes were already well-funded and all the free cash flow could be used for acquisitions and returns of capital to shareholders: Indeed, but everything we have seen over the last few years (including this deal) speaks of an excellent relationship between the schemes and the company. So long as the company keeps delivering on promises I don't believe the pension trustees will stand in the way of rational use of any excess capital.
kazoom
Chat Pages: 303  302  301  300  299  298  297  296  295  294  293  292  Older
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