Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

[twixy] 24/1/2018 21:50

Interesting article in the Telegraph, suggesting some shareholders could oppose the S&N takeover if the EBITDA multiple is greater than TNI’s X 3, which the currently muted £130MM price tag appears to be, though they do support the concept of the purchase.

Subscription needed so can’t post the link.

[kazoom] 23/1/2018 15:24

Agreed Twixy - this deal will be sanctioned by the trustees it's not that I doubt it's just the source of the £100m.

cci - you may well be right that it is just a rehash, but I seem to recall that the DT article speculated that some of the cash would be raised by a placing.

Anyways - hopefully we will know soon.

[cityconindex] 23/1/2018 13:51

The ST article was a clone of the DT story about 6 weeks ago. 10% of the tni shares after the takeover will be in Mr Desmonds hands.

[twixy] 23/1/2018 13:39

Kazoom - I think the pension trustees must be onboard if it is genuinely being sanctioned by the BoD this week. The annual savings will be significant; maybe further pension top ups are part of the deal....

[kazoom] 23/1/2018 13:28

Ah okay thanks - Actually just reading the short précis of the time article via google (search Trinity Mirror Desmond) they are saying more £100m cash plus c. 10% shareholding. (so possibly 140-150m in total)

Of course that might just be wild speculation.

10% dilution, even at these prices , wouldn't be to bad I suppose, but I'm still sceptical that the Pension trustees would let them raise anywhere near £100m new debt.

[smicker] 23/1/2018 11:04

Sorry Kazoom, dont have access to the full article either.

[gfrae] 23/1/2018 10:55

Also an article in yesterday's Times.

[kazoom] 23/1/2018 10:09

Can't read the ST article for some reason they won't accept any of my email addresses as valid.

Not sure I can understand the figures - £100m in cash AND Desmond to become biggest shareholder - that's way more than £130m isn't it?

Also do they indicate how the £100m would be funded? I doubt the pension trustees would allow it to all be debt.

[twixy] 22/1/2018 12:31

Thanks smicker - hopefully by the time it completes the reported GBP100MM cash will be partly funded through funds on hand, as I believe we should be debt free or close to it at YE Dec '17. The current GBP110MM revolving credit facility is good until Dec 2021.

[smicker] 21/1/2018 14:36

Article in the ST says price will be over 130m and 100m cash and Desmond will become (one of?) the largest shareholder. Imminent in next few weeks. Board meeting this week

[twixy] 19/1/2018 10:32

kazoom - Thanks for taking the time to post! I have added over the last few days, as I agree with your assessment - I also think the S&N deal will happen - just taking longer to get the multiple issues aligned (competition, pensions, key shareholders) and convincing Desmond we don't need his flagship building for the next 10 years!

[kazoom] 17/1/2018 19:47

Hi FIM,

Personally I don't have a clue on a pre-results (late Feb?) target price, but I do expect/hope to see a price in excess of £1.00 at some point this year.

I do though struggle to see what drives some of the share-price movements here. If you look at the 2 year chart in the header you'll see :

> A fall from 170 2 years (in fact on the way down from above 200) to about 70 in summer 2016
> A bounce back to c. 110 in Aug / Sept -16
> A fall back to the high 70s around the end of 2016
> A rise again to 120+ in Feb?mar-17 and again in May/June.
> A fairly long run down (with one rally) to the 60s late 2017.
> A recovery into the 80s and a pullback in the last few weeks.

During this time - virtually nothing game changing has happened with the business - they have boringly met or slightly exceeded market expectations. They did increase the phone hacking provision, but from memory that was a tiny number of pence per share and they announced the S&N acquisition negotiations - but that did not obviously impact the share price.

I personally cannot rationalise the substantial fluctuations in the share price over the last two years, so I would be foolish to make a prediction a month and a half out.

However - as I've started to examine whether TA might be of any assistance here, I would observe that Thursday and Friday might be quite interesting :

> If the price is up (above 77p) in early trading on Thursday it would break (upwards) a short term down trend - c. 7 trading days from 85ish pence (intra-day)
> It would also confirm a bounce off the bottom of a two month up-trend - the top end of which will rise above 90p in mid-Feb.

In all good faith I cannot recommend those indicators to anyone. But personally, my take is that on the ultra-short term (measured in days and weeks), short term (measured in weeks out to two months) and short-medium term (maybe 6 months out) it all looks rosy - if the price does not crash tomorrow.

I also personally like the longer term view (2 years plus) , but that very much depends on getting the right deal with S&N or being prepared to walk away (it is still possible that assets from Johnston Press may become available at bargain prices)


So personally I remain pretty bullish here - but everyone really needs to form their own opinion.

[freddie ferret] 17/1/2018 17:12

I'm wondering about the Northern and Shell Desmond thing. Maybe they will announce a conclusion to their negotiations??

[cityconindex] 17/1/2018 10:40

FIM there are so many positives The Phone issue is put to bed, The takeover, Dividend hike, Share buy back, poss interest rate hike, bigger than expected digital revenue growth , print sales slow down not as bad as expected. Outside chance of a takeover of tni itself, @160p. Imho up to build up like last year with less shares out there maybe 125-135.hxxp://www.4-traders.com/

Those who want a live feed, .30 pence either way is the live price
hxxps://www.ig.com/uk/shares/markets-shares/trinity-mirror-plc-TNI-UK

[foot in mouth] 16/1/2018 20:58

Quiet on here! What do you people have as a target price in the lead up to the results? The last update said things were as expected...........if that is correct and the dividend is indeed increased as per TNI's stated dividend polciy this yields an impressive yield!

[cityconindex] 08/1/2018 12:47

An admirer out there for you KAZOOM...struggling at 83p but seems a million miles from 67. Well done to those who purchased...
Do mm try and flush out sellers if brokers make contact to sell eg 50000 shares, and then depress the price all day if required to pressure the holder to sell?

[kazoom] 06/1/2018 00:23

Wow - someone gave my post 0.1 of a "PlusOneCoin" thanks for that a new accolade.

If you could also forward me 0.1 of a bitcoin that would be ideal and due recompense for all of the time and effort I took ;-)

Anyway citycon, please don't take me for a charting expert - I'm really not. I'm more of a semi-sceptic - I do think that there is clearly something in some chart signals, but I'm not convinced whether there is enough predictive power to be profitable.

But anyway as you asked, I don't actually see why there would be resistance at 83p , but I wouldn't be surprised if the 85-87 ish region of about months ago provides some degree of resistance.

Honestly though I think news will most likely trump charts over the near term. A positive take on the S&N deal I would expect to see a share price over £1 again, but if the market views it poorly we could retest the recent lows imho.

I don't though think the management will come forward with a deal that could be viewed to negatively - they no only too well that if it does include an equity component and is viewed negatively, it will not happen and they probably be replaced.

Personally in this case I would agree that "no deal is better than a bad deal!" ;-)

[cityconindex] 04/1/2018 10:14

Kazoom, Where is the next resistance after 83p?

There have been 3 days of higher closing normally bodes well and reasonable turnover plenty of blues on the screen , seems like loads of retail investors.

I believe this stock is going to roam new highs if the phone tapping scandal is dealt with and the takeover is closed at a good price for TNI.

A small point some news saying pensioners are likely to live shorter lives lol

Good or bad depends which side of 20 you are, hopefully good for the shares

Cheers

[xxx] 31/12/2017 23:46

I would prefer it if there was a newspaper which was fairly impartial and trustworthy, rather than a set of newspapers which pander to a set of pre-conceived notions.

I thought the digital experiment that TNI did, was interesting along those lines and hoped that the info would be merged into the various products, rather than just dying a death, as happened. It was another thought bubble from our ex-HMV leader, which lacked coherence in the form of an end point. something done because it could be, rather than understanding what people are willing to spend time on or pay for directly[ The NewDay ugh!]

Eventually news gathering and dissemination will be something you can charge for and make a living out of, but I dont think that many newspapers have a similar core view.
The Washington Post gives us some hope. Bezos bought it whilst it was loss making. It was profitable, when I last looked and they had hiked the cover price.

I have fairly average views and therefore suspect that there are a good number of others out there looking for impartial daily news, with comment, rather like the old FT, which we would pay for but do not wish to subsidise an echo chamber.

[twixy] 31/12/2017 16:14

Good luck all for 2018 - let’s hope the U.K. population have vowed to read a TNI newspaper every day as a worthy NY resolution ;-)

[twixy] 29/12/2017 09:11

CCI - if the N&S acquisition happens I think both of your requests are likely to come true. I believe there is some matching language for dividends, which means the pension funds get the same.

[cityconindex] 29/12/2017 08:59

Hi Now the pension has a set limit of payments can the dividend be hiked for us long suffering holders? Would 5 p or more final be poss?

TNI need a couple of out the box ideas to make it rally big time, and increase business reach.

[kazoom] 28/12/2017 18:19

And on the basis of my amateur squiggling it looks as though both of those patterns have been broken.



Presumably that would be taken as some kind of bullish signal, but of what magnitude I know not


Any chartists out there with a view?

[kazoom] 28/12/2017 12:56

Always difficult to know citycon, but I have seen one mention on Stockopedia of someone listing this as one of their wacky ideas for 2018, so there may be some people taking speculative positions for the year ahead.

Also from the point of view of the squiggle watchers; it looks as though it is threatening to breakout above the resistance of a 6+ month downtrend and on a shorter timescale (6 weeks or so) we are at or near the apex of a triangle formation which might indicate a breakout up or down.

Whilst I am far from a convinced chartist, there might be something in those patterns (even if self fulfilling prophesies).