Trinity Mirror Share Discussion Threads

[gfrae] 10/11/2017 09:17

xxx,one thing in our favour is that Johnson Press looks close to implosion and there may well be other interesting assets available at good prices soon.

[xxx] 10/11/2017 02:46

CJohn yes,IMV TNI shouldnt pay more than 2.5x earnings for the whole enterprise, for the reasons gfrae gives + other transactions in this space.
But I worry Desmond is a far tougher negotiator, has the advantage of being a private co.+ Simon Fox has regularly expressed interest in N+S, meaning we are the pursuer.

[twixy] 09/11/2017 12:09

gfrae - spot on!

[gfrae] 09/11/2017 10:49

xxx, I assume that you mean that TNI should not buy N+S at more than 2.5 times earnings because TNI shares are only valued at 2 times odd, I broadly agree.
If Desmond is offered and accepts TNI paper plus cash raised by new debt it could be acceptable to all parties. He will understand that TNI paper is undervalued and have his own idea of the intrinsic value. So unless he knows something that everyone else does not, he is very unlikely to sell at anywhere near these levels.I do not see any necessity for a lock in. He would presumably be prepared to take the 6 or 7% yield while he waited for a more realistic price.
He will still have an interest in the success of the business and will also profit from cost synergies,whilst simplifying his empire.
Existing TNI shareholders and pensioners would also benefit from cost synergies from the combined group providing TNI does not overpay, uses as much debt as possible,and issues new shares only to Desmond who will have his own idea of their real value.

[cjohn] 09/11/2017 10:20

BTW did you mean TNI should pay 2.5 x earnings and take on any N+S debt?

[cjohn] 09/11/2017 10:15

Hi XXX,

OK, the difference may be that I don't need to be bang up-to-date..... So I seek individual papers published usually sometime ago.

Barriers do remain, but to my mind, it's easier to access this sort of information than twenty years ago.

[xxx] 09/11/2017 07:51

I think it is in TM's interest to push negotiations out further.
Personally, unless they get N+S for less than x2.5 earnings, I will think that Desmond will have got the better of the deal. In terms of financing, they should offer Desmond equity, with a 3 yr lock up.

CJohn, do you access medical journals online, without cost ? For most journals that I seek, I am limited to the abstract or limited highlights.

[patience a virtue] 08/11/2017 20:35

If this drops below 70p, the yield will be at 9%. With not much debt and still making a lot of profit, the valuation is rather cheap. Connect was hammered before the results but has recovered well since. I will add more in the 70s hoping it does not drop into the 60s.

[kazoom] 08/11/2017 19:33

And personally I won't be buying shedloads more if the price dips lower still.

I filled up the last time we plumbed these depths hoping to make a quick range trade by riding the oscillation back above £1.

So far that hasn't worked out quite so well this time, although there is still time for that to become a very good (sadly no longer excellent trade).

It would take a share price starting with a 6 for me to get my wallet back out!

[kazoom] 08/11/2017 19:27

Unfortunately though Freddie - I'm not sure that they will be buying too many more, for now.

They have now bought : 9,845,620. And I don't think think that their average price is too far south of £1 per share, so they are quite near the end of the £10m buyback.

I can't immediately find it, but does anyone know what buy-back authority they were granted at the last AGM?

Companies often just have a default item granting them authority to buy back a set amount. If this was more than the £10m buyback scheme, then they could just announce a new figure and carry on buying. If not they'd have to wait for the next AGM (or call an EGM - unlikely).

I hope it is the former, because if the potential acquisition does indeed include a shares element I would much prefer that as many as possible come out of treasury having been bought at rock bottom prices.

To be clear though Numis will be operating to a strict set of criteria (probably focussed around daily volume) so their action won't actually be around "buying the dips".

[freddie ferret] 08/11/2017 17:33

That is what I like to see, the company is picking up a decent number when the price is low.
If the price drops lower hopefully they will pick up shedloads.

Lower still and I will pick up shedloads.

[cjohn] 07/11/2017 08:32

Hi Freddie,

Did they stock the full range of journals? Only the major ones. I remember having serious problems working out of a provincial university library and being unable to source significant papers at all. (It was better at the British and the Bodleian library.) But, in any case, you had to physically go there.

And the fact remains I've been able to get all the medical research papers I need sitting here in my garret in northern Spain. You will know better than me whether I'd be able to do that in other fields. (I take your point re anonymity.)

In any case, I don't think we fundamentally disagree on this one. The advent of digitalisation has also clearly had some pernicious and perverse cultural effects.

[twixy] 06/11/2017 16:49

Thanks Cityconindex - Looks like Handley owns Q Developments and the balance sheet has around £150K of cash so will be TNI funding most of it: I hope TNI have managed a nice slug of equity in return!

[freddie ferret] 06/11/2017 16:43

C John.

Sadly no.

Thirty years ago if you wanted to know something from journals you just walked in to your local university library and went to the journal you needed to read, also abstracts and reference volumes.

Today you can walk in to a university library, the majority of journals are accessable by personal computer, but only to people on a course, furthermore what you access will be recorded and monitored. Not much use if you are researching something with the intention of patenting it.

Basically things today are a fxxxed up mess.
The Chinese and the Russians will gain great advantage in the long term by keeping hard copy.


CJohn
6 Nov '17 - 11:01 - 1944 of 1946 1 0
Hi Freddie,

I note your scepticism re the quality of information on the internet. I'd certainly agree with you that reducing the cost and difficulty of publishing - ie via the internet - means far more is published and this reduces the average quality, compared to hard copy.

Of course, there's tons of guff of all kinds on the internet. But there's also increased access to previously inaccesible information. As one example, I read a lot of medical research papers on line. It would have beeen far more difficult/expensive to get hold of these papers 15 years ago.


As to ADVFN, there are still many well-informed and cogent posters. Let's take heart from that fact. We're also both still alive: it could be worse.

[patience a virtue] 06/11/2017 15:59

Sub 80P again, yield at 7%, last trading update OK.
Hope they conclude the discussion with Northern and Shell soon.
Looking to add more.

[cjohn] 06/11/2017 11:01

Hi Freddie,

I note your scepticism re the quality of information on the internet. I'd certainly agree with you that reducing the cost and difficulty of publishing - ie via the internet - means far more is published and this reduces the average quality, compared to hard copy.

Of course, there's tons of guff of all kinds on the internet. But there's also increased access to previously inaccesible information. As one example, I read a lot of medical research papers on line. It would have beeen far more difficult/expensive to get hold of these papers 15 years ago.


As to ADVFN, there are still many well-informed and cogent posters. Let's take heart from that fact. We're also both still alive: it could be worse.


all the best

[cityconindex] 02/11/2017 12:06

hxxp://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

[cityconindex] 01/11/2017 10:12

Foot...does not seem to have any effect yet on the share price But 50k a day and there was a 100k. Seems we are not far from the budget end. .25% hike in rates if it happens, may have a impact on the share price

[cityconindex] 30/10/2017 10:14

Tipped in Motley fool.

[foot in mouth] 29/10/2017 15:51

The latest company RNS states that 9.5 million shares have been purchased and are held in treasury.......we must be getting close to the completion of the 10 million GBP buyback scheme now! I wonder what that will do to the share price??

[cityconindex] 29/10/2017 15:07

Article in the Investors chronicle Friday. Positive rather than negative.

[gfrae] 28/10/2017 16:43

Nobody takes anything smartly pants Carney says seriously ! With full employment and inflation well over target. It is a no brainer that rates ought to rise. But, who knows what smarty pants will do !

[kazoom] 27/10/2017 22:30

Not drivel at all Fangorn; there can surely be no dispute that were it not for Brexit the rate would not have been dropped to 0.25%. In fact before the Brexit vote I was minded to think that a rate rise would be appropriate to ensure that further rises could be suitably gradual.

I'm actually now of a view that it would be sensible not to raise UK rates for c. 3 months (even though as you say the international picture is clearly upwards). The so called strong GDP figures are imho nothing more than a seasonal wiggle and in fact there are no domestic drivers for higher interest rates ATM - there are still a few months yet before the global picture will demand action in the UK.

Certainly the upcoming rates rise is good for pension schemes, but there is imho a bigger imperative in the sickly UK economy. I'm not sure about the rest of the committee, but I think Carney gets this; he said that rates will rise in the relatively near term - if he had meant at the next meeting he would NOT have used the word I bolded. I was totally astonished that ever single journo seemed to miss the import of this carefully placed word.

[fangorn2] 27/10/2017 21:02

"UK rates would be higher already if it were not for Brexit"


Drivel

"Rates are almost certain to continue their recent rise entirely because internationally they are rising. "

They're almost certain to rise because they are artificially far too low, have been far too low or far too long, and are resulting in a misallocation of resources.

"The fundamental position is that the World economy is improving faster than economists and forecasters ( who are all in denial)are willing to accept and with it inflation is now showing the first signs of Spring."

Yup.

inflation is out there - inflation is coming. Just a question of time.