Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[nocents] 18/7/2019 10:31

I hope so too

[oilinvestoral] 18/7/2019 10:27

I think some posters were questioning why MT was posting on a BB he no longer holds shares in. He was hounded too much and had to justify his presence too many times ... I for one miss his posts .... I hope he returns here.

[nocents] 18/7/2019 09:05

Thanks. Point and clarification made. I think your viewpoint is encapsulated well “ downside very limited/upside not insignificant”.
I think the soupcon of hope is where some of is are coming from after a deathly wearisome time. Hope that explains my posts.
MT had value here. Shame no longer contributing.

[gabrieloak] 18/7/2019 08:41

Nothing bleak...just a choice. Downside very limited / upside not insignificant.

MT writes well on this point of the drilling...after all, the same applies to all Trinidad Oiler’s so he has some familiarity, the company needs to get this component right.

[spellbrook] 18/7/2019 07:44

Trinity, the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago, today outlines its initial investor communications timetable for the second half of 2019 (“H2”). Management will be presenting at a range of retail and institutional focussed investor events in London and the regions throughout the remainder of the year enabling the Company to discuss operational and financial developments as well as an overview of the its strategy.

London Events
In addition to hosting an investor presentation and institutional meetings in London when interim results are announced in September, the Company will also present at the following events:

ShareSoc event on 11 September
Oil Capital Conference on 12 September
Shares Conference on 23 October
121 Oil & Gas conference on 28-29 October

Regional Presentations
The Company will also be presenting at the following regional events:

Shares Conference in Edinburgh on 14 November
ShareSoc event in Manchester on 19 November

Bruce Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:

“We are very excited about our prospects for the remainder of the year and look forward to using the presentation opportunities to discuss our future plans with investors, including our ongoing drilling programme, which is about to recommence.”

[bountyhunter] 18/7/2019 07:44

Sounding positive.

[spellbrook] 18/7/2019 07:43

Nocents


The 3rd RNS is out ..Roadshows

[spellbrook] 18/7/2019 07:22

@Trinity_PLC #TRIN morning meeting at FZ-2 onshore hub

Also 4 photos on Twitter

[wwick] 17/7/2019 23:07

GO, good to have your contributions here, thank you.
Who wants to wait and see if the company can deliver? I respond with, is there a reason to suggest they may not? "~91 bopd from each well" - initial average production assuming one of the eight wells is HAW is ~101 bopd using published figures (vertical ~92; HAW ~165; Horizontal ~229).

[nocents] 17/7/2019 21:32

My upcoming communication with Trin may shed light. I am off coast and have no phone signal right now so it has to wait to end of week.

[nocents] 17/7/2019 21:28

I don’t want to live in La La Land and that was a great mathematical analysis. Certainly educated me with the number crunching. But Trin got to 28p with debt and on sentiment. 15p in June .21p in Sep.11p in Dec. 16p Jan. Markets are depressive or exuberant at times and certainly not always rationally responsive. This drop was due to one or more consistent sellers who may hold your pessimistic side of the coin. New buyers do not so obviously hold the optimistic side with a 11-12p average.
Not my business who the seller(s) was/is.
But if you hold a diminished investment logic dictates that you either have other better places or your confidence in a good outcome is equally diminished(??).
Both SPT and election change cannot be counted on...but they never could from day one.
Your cryptic question “ who wants to wait and see?” may instil a feeling of doubt . We all have to wait and see or cop out. After 6 yrs of holding I am still under no illusions and have realistic doubts...even MT educated me. But I have to lean on true-life real and calculated hope in this investment. And that means not counting on SPT change or tweaking or govt. change.
Can’t do that. So it’s WTI/hedging/drill campaign/ and modest to start with before Tgal becomes a possibility.

[nocents] 17/7/2019 20:24

Sorry as usual for typos

[nocents] 17/7/2019 20:23

GO
A nice financial breakdown as usual from you.
SPT has never been my hope. I know politics ...I have a degree in it and have worked in it and I never trust promises . I have watched politicians wreak havoc all my life.
But hedging is in place.
And Tgal will need funding but is proven and probable even with SPT.
You are a wait and see holder on a diminished basis. This has always been wait and see unless one believed in SPT reform ( which I never did).
What has changed?
SPT was always the impediment to new drilling and especially Tgal.
But capex is just capex. A necessary evil with new wells.
No dividend of course.
But it was always going to be modest growth with SPT in place.
8-10p seems a little harsh. Markets usually also work on sentiment too.
I thought your initial response to results was fairly ppsitive but this in-depth analysis and commentary sounds ratger bleak.

[gabrieloak] 17/7/2019 20:00

For me it is a wait and see on a current diminished holding basis...

[gabrieloak] 17/7/2019 19:55

Summary as I see things...

Let's assume that the CENKOS tweet conforms to Company expectations (House broker and all that):

"Cenkos forecasts 2019 year-end cash to be US$11.3m with a 2019 capex expenditure of US$14.3m; estimated 2019 daily production to average 3,224bopd on a realised oil price of US$60.5/bbl, generating US$71.1m in revenue with CNAV at 40p."

All in $

Cash balance now at end of H1 = 17.8mln
Assume run rate of $1.3mln X 6 months (at $60 oil) = 7.8mln + 17.8mln = 25.6mln
less Capex of 14.3mln = 11.3mln
Capex = 8 wells at 1.4 mln per well = 11.2 on drilling and 3.1 on general capex
2019 Average BOPD is expected to be 3224
Q1 = 3020
Q2 = 2996
Q3 = 3150(? small assumed uplift from a well or two coming online)

What does Q4 have to shoulder in order to get an average BOPD of 3224?

Answer: Q4 3731 bopd

Therefore, ~730 BOPD from an 8 well drill program = ~91 bopd from each well...

So the question is: Can they achieve this from the HAW, can they exceed this? We know that management likes to be conservative...this question defines the investment case right now. If they can deliver and throw in the hope of TOTAL SPT overhaul post the election next year and the monthly run rate jumps to ~$2.5mln pcm from 1.5mln.

If you then allow a self funding series of further wells in 2020 then the momentum will start to be felt.

If they deliver on CENKOS and there is an overhaul of SPT then $30mln (£24mln) of annual revenue at 60 dollars is targeted before capex.

Should these two things occur, the share price will be higher.

That is a few ifs...

If the govt is re-elected or the HAW program is not as successful as hoped then TRIN is a company that has spent ~$20 mln over 2 years to achieve a modest uplift in BOPD produced...hardly punching the lights out and the shares should be at...wait a minute...~(maybe 8-10P!?)

The market is literally pricing in no SPT overhaul and a terrible drilling campaign already. Who wants to wait and see if the company can deliver?

[nocents] 17/7/2019 19:45

Good for you Sleveen.
Me too.
Trin made plans clear. Plenty of “tropin” potential.
Still always a waiting game.

[sleveen] 17/7/2019 18:05

I did yesterday

[spellbrook] 17/7/2019 16:56

MT

Last post appreciated

Good luck with your investing

[spellbrook] 17/7/2019 16:29

Any one new looking in, worth a read, cash in the bank, no debt, 8 wells planned second half of 2019 and introducing HAW and new large investors just over 3% ....good luck

Q2 2019 Operational Update

Steady production, strong cash growth and first 2019 new infill well imminent

Trinity Exploration & Production plc (AIM: TRIN), the independent E&P company focused on Trinidad and Tobago, today provides an update on its operations for the three-month period ended 30 June 2019 ("Q2 2019" or "the period").

Production volumes over the quarter were successfully maintained across our assets at an average of 2,996 bopd, in line with expectations. Production is expected to rise in the second half of the year with the resumption of onshore drilling. Drilling of the first new infill well of the 2019 campaign is expected to commence at the WD-2 asset on 18 July 2019. This first phase of the 2019 drilling campaign, which is currently expected to comprise up to eight new wells, will also include the first High Angle Well (“HAW”), FR 996.

During the period, the Company continued to control its operating costs and capital expenditures carefully. As a consequence, unaudited cash balances increased to US$ 17.8 million as at 30 June 2019 - up from US$ 12.3 million at the end of Q1.


Q2 Operational Highlights
Group average production volumes were 2,996 bopd for the period (Q1 2019: 3,020 bopd)
8.6% increase in year-on-year Group production for H1 2019 with average production of 3,008 bopd (H1 2018: 2,771 bopd)
2019 drilling programme has now commenced with the rig mobilised and the first well due to spud on 18 July 2019
Contingent upon the prevailing oil price environment, and subsequent investment, net average production for 2019 is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 bopd, consistent with the guidance issued at the time of the 2018 final results

Q2 Financial Highlights
Cash balance of US$17.8 million (unaudited) as at 30 June 2019 (31 March 2018: US$12.3 million)

Hedging Update
Trinity has taken advantage of recent oil price strength to put in place an initial layer of hedging to help mitigate the impact of Supplementary Petroleum Taxes (“SPT”). The hedging is designed to protect a portion of Group cash flows between US$ 50.0 – US$ 55.0/bbl thereby partially offsetting the impact of SPT whilst retaining upside exposure to rising oil prices over the majority of production. The hedges comprise a six month put spread with a WTI price floor of US$ 50.0/bbl and a cap of US$ 55.0/bbl covering 12,500 barrels per month and a twelve month put spread with a WTI price floor of US$ 50.0/bbl and a cap of US$ 55.0/bbl with a US$ 64.40 strike price call covering a further 12,500 barrels per month. Further such layers may be implemented in H2 2019, depending on market conditions.

Outlook
The second half of the year is expected to be extremely active for the Company with the recommencement of the onshore drilling programme. With the Group’s ongoing and continued focus on controlling costs and development of its assets, it remains well placed to provide significant upside to shareholders both in terms of production and returns. Within the H2 drilling campaign the Company will be drilling its first HAW, the FR 996 well. This well is the first of a series of HAW wells that the Group expects to drill and complete in the near term. Although not commonly deployed onshore in Trinidad, HAWs are now the industry standard in many basins around the world and have been modelled by the Company to yield initial production rates and reserves of more than 2x those achieved from conventional vertical wells.

The Group’s focus for the medium term continues to be delivering the first phase of the TGAL development, which has the potential to deliver standalone peak production rates in the range of 5,000 – 6,000 bopd. As the TGAL project matures, discussions on the project, and on the Galeota licence as a whole, are generating good traction and momentum with the supply chain, the regulators and with Heritage, the Group’s partner.

The Company continues to work hard on all facets of its business by maintaining close attention to base production, growing production through new infill drilling, progressing the TGAL development, and being well positioned to capitalise on the changing local market.

The Company will announce its interim results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2019 in early September. This announcement will provide further detail on production, margins, operating break-even, costs and profitability - highlighting the growing value of the Company's assets and continued strong financial performance.

Bruce Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented:

“Our strong balance sheet and robust base production mean that we are delivering our financial and production targets, and at the same time, ensuring that we can take advantage of any strategic opportunities that may arise. We remain focused on maximising output and returns for shareholders and continue to evaluate the best ways of protecting and enhancing those returns through prudent treasury management, industry leading operating practices and technical innovation. Given the strength of our business model, the ongoing work programme and visibility afforded by our balance sheet, we continue to face the future with confidence."

[mark10101] 17/7/2019 16:07

Nocents, once a holder is above 3% they have to notify each time they go though a percentage barrier. The surprising thing about this announcement is there has been no notification of someone selling. Is there really 11.5m shares from PI’s?

[mark10101] 17/7/2019 15:57

More chunky trades today, great to see a new large holder take a position.

[nocents] 17/7/2019 14:23

Why another RNS?

[princebuster2] 17/7/2019 14:14

Spell...they said this two months ago...and the share price dropped from 16 to 10p so clearly that is not enuf for the market to take any interest!?