Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 17/7/2019 09:27

Where are the buyers? £107 of trades in the first hour following yesterday's Trading Update is probably not what the management were expecting.

Despite the huge cash raise last year, they are clearly still finding it difficult to give the market something to get excited about - another 0%-10% forecast annual production increase which itself is reliant on the successful deployment of more expensive HAW drilling technology seems to be struggling to get the market's juices flowing.

[spellbrook] 16/7/2019 17:09

FSA u the Man U must know it all u rock , u must b an aim TT oiler guru

[nocents] 16/7/2019 15:43

Good posters....bad posters.......

[fsawatcher] 16/7/2019 13:41

wot the first haw goin to offer

200bopds?

hard ley worth the bother

they aint got fundin for 8 wells jus 2 or 3 by look of things

update says they drillin wells jus to keep production where it is

theres a well dyin on them for eveyr well they drill

that mean lotta capex jus to keep production in 3000 level

this goin no wheres and they gonna need more cash to fast move stuff here

no wonder they do nuffin in Q2

they need the cash pile to rise

[mount teide] 16/7/2019 13:36

Sleveen - average Production entering Q1/2018 was 2,777 bopd compared to 2,996 bopd for Q2/2019

This is a 219 bopd increase(8%) over 18 months from 8 wells at a cost of circa $12m.

The annual production increase during the 18 month period of drilling was 5.33%!

A 0% to 10% increase is forecast for the next 12 months from another 8 well $12m drilling programme.

This together with SPT and the massive cash raise are likely to be the primary reasons why the share price has performed so poorly over the last 12 months.

[sleveen] 16/7/2019 12:37

MT

"So, the 8 H2/2018 wells have delivered 175 bopd increase in production between end of Q2/2018 and Q2/2019."


For the sake of accuracy:

2 wells drilled in Q1 2018
6 wells drilled and completed over Q3 to Q4 2018. (Source May 2019 presentation).


Feel free to ignore the circa 55k barrels of Q3/Q4 "flush production" cash generation as well as the facts.

[dudishes] 16/7/2019 11:30

Hey Delboy (Seagreen), never mind bedsits, how's your used car business doing?

[mark10101] 16/7/2019 11:23

Malcy’s Latest

hTTs://www.malcysblog.com/

More on the link but closing statement below.

“The company says that it is ‘well placed to provide significant upside to shareholders both in terms of production and returns’ and I concur. Trinity is in a very strong position indeed with solid production and plenty of upside from drilling in the second half including the exciting HAW programme and the shares are way too cheap given all this most positive news.”

[nocents] 16/7/2019 10:39

I know.
Yes it is.
But at least we saw a tiny rise and not the other way.
And now Trin have made clear thir position both in cash and drilling.
Yes of course 10p is anysmal. It is abusmal to all concerned (including the company. )
One small step

[princebuster2] 16/7/2019 10:26

Yeah lets not get too excited..the share price is 10p...thats abysmal really.

[nocents] 16/7/2019 10:03

MM. Your sentiments appreciated. Good detailed RNS . Makes prospects and plans much clearer than usual RNS’s.
Still very cheap to buy as MM’s don’t want to let this go. Large bolume of buying is not reflected in price rise- typical of misery-market setters.
Great explanation of drilling campaign and hedging against Trumpism and recalcitrant T and T govt. SPT is being taken fully into accpunt and its perpetuation is factored in. Hugely sensible. Looking forward to HAW result...perhaps Sep.So the drilling campaign already underway? First spud on 18th and first well this year in T and T.
Tgal is being seriosly put together. Hedging very wise due to volatile oil price and more expensive offshore. Lots of cash for capex ..and if I am right this gives SPT credits. I will check.
Shareholders have justifiably expressed their unhappiness. After all we are still sub 11p.
But the detailed communication is much more helpful to us. More patience ...............
Still a cracking buy at this price. The seller did his job well.

[marvelman] 16/7/2019 09:34

Well I do think the RNS was very reassuring for investors and certainly does not explain the share price decline.. far from it. Hopefully the seller ( or manipulator) will have reached towards the end of his gameplay. Pleased for the faithful here to have had a restbite from the constant bashing of this share

[mount teide] 16/7/2019 08:43

stp - the reasonable assumption is that workovers etc are offsetting overall field declines.

Sleveen - mostly flush production as the new wells were brought on.

[chrisa1] 16/7/2019 08:34

cash balance circa $18million
t/o $41 million
m/cap £41 million????

[nocents] 16/7/2019 08:28

Great feedback and analyses.
Shame about visitors with nought better to do than find fault. Guess ( as MM says) that’s mischievous bosrds for you.
Appreciate the explanation about hedging from GO. Helps me and maybe others.

[slicethepie] 16/7/2019 08:23

Your analysis is meaningless, it ignores declines, work overs closures etc. Management will do a well by well analysis to see if payback (roi) is sufficiently high enough to drill.

[sleveen] 16/7/2019 08:21

MT

What about the ave 300 bopd increase during Q4 18 & Q1 19?

[seagreen] 16/7/2019 08:20

Good update mind so hopefully you are less morose today.

[kilkeelrambler] 16/7/2019 08:19

Excellent results keep up the good work trin, I will be taking more shares at this price

[seagreen] 16/7/2019 08:19

nocents the days of banks putting capital in size behind market making are over, with a few players left. I am sure you have worked for 3 major Investment Banks and one boutique AIM broker, but you are entitled to your own opinion from your bedsit in Romford.

[sleveen] 16/7/2019 08:10

Well done a good update.

[spellbrook] 16/7/2019 08:06

Jv, farmout to come in the future ??

As the TGAL project matures, discussions on the project, and on the Galeota licence as a whole, are generating good traction and momentum with the supply chain, the regulators and with Heritage, the Group's partner.

[mount teide] 16/7/2019 08:06

Production Development 2018 - 2019

Q2/2018 - 2,821 bopd
Q3/2018 - 2,734 bopd
Q4/2018 - 3,205 bopd
Q1/2019 - 3,020 bopd
Q2/2019 - 2,996 bopd

So, the 8 H2/2018 wells have delivered 175 bopd increase in production between end of Q2/2018 and Q2/2019.

This suggests a payback time for the 8 wells drilled in H2/2018 of circa 6 years cash flow at $65 Brent.

The 8 well H2/2019 drilling programme needs to be far more successful than the 2018 programme to justify the expenditure.

[gabrieloak] 16/7/2019 07:50

WHAT...4 barrels short of 3000 BOPD for Q2...quickly, someone sell TRIN!

No, seriously, these are an excellent set of numbers.

Great cash balance...at the top of my expectations!
BOPD Solid given initial decline rates post drilling last year.

So, lets cover off the hedge, here is what it means:

Buy 55 put, sell 50 put, sell 64.40 calls.

Depending when this was done: the premium received of the 64.40 calls and the 50 put hopefully offset the cost of the 55 put.

Let's assume the cost was zero...between 55 and 64.5 it neither costs anything or loses money, above 64 and they give away a bit, at 54 they make 1, at 53 they make 2, at 52 they make 3, at 51 they make 4, at 50 they make 5, at 49 they retain 5, at 48 they retain 5 etc...($5 * number of contracts * multiplier etc) this is clever as long as the price does not leap up above 64. However the bopd covered is minor, so what this does is smooth out SPT and inherently lets you know the company is not expecting any change imminently from the Terry's in T&T govt...clever though: Anytime you see an oil price spike, take advantage and hedge out the wrinkle of SPT...anyone would think Dave Segal might have something to do with Options trading.

And to finish off, a hint on being prepared for a "changing local market", a solid (imminent) drill campaign and a statement from Bruce Dingwall that would make TXP shareholders envious. ;-)