Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 11/1/2019 17:46

Great week for TRIN. I sense much better times coming.

[spellbrook] 11/1/2019 17:10

nice 200k buy, be nice to move into 15`s next week

[mdw1] 11/1/2019 08:23

Oil set for biggest weekly gain in two years; Trin. about to play catch up.....

[spellbrook] 11/1/2019 07:11

There Is Still Room To Run For Oil Prices




By Nick Cunningham - Jan 10, 2019, 6:00 PM



“The oil market looks to be broadly balanced in 2019, an improvement on 2018 which turned out oversupplied,” Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant wrote in a note. “This supports a partial oil price recovery.”

The investment bank says that the plunge in oil prices has “overshot,R21; with the selloff having been magnified in December due to the global financial turmoil.

To be sure, the fundamentals did turn negative, with weaker expectations for demand, weaker time spreads in the futures market, and higher inventories. In the short run, the ramp up of OPEC+ supply before the December decision to slash output will take time to filter through the market.

Morgan Stanley argues that a similar thing happened the first time around when OPEC+ agreed to cut production at the start of 2017. Producers ramped up output in the weeks and months ahead of the deal, and that new oil set sail just ahead of the implementation of cuts.

As a result, in the first half of 2017, inventories barely budged, even as production fell. It took several months before all of those additional barrels arrived at their destination and became integrated into storage facilities, and ultimately worked off by the market. It wasn’t until the second half of 2017 that visible inventory data began to demonstrate significant declines. Morgan Stanley says a similar thing might happen this year, which could cap oil prices at $65 per barrel.

[nocents] 10/1/2019 20:42

SB. Good article. This was never going to be a repeat of 2014-6 as that real bear market never yet became a full bull market. Oil has just been played like a harp by the US ( and media )and Saudi wishes to restabilise.
2019 looks interesting for oil stock holders....especially deeply undervalued ones as here.

[spellbrook] 10/1/2019 18:30

Oil Enters Bull Market As Shorts Are Wiped Out







By ZeroHedge - Jan 10, 2019, 11:00 AM CST

After crude suffered a near record, 44% plunge in the fourth quarter, one which left commodity funds reeling and both OPEC and oil exporting nations in a panic, oil stormed back into bull market territory, as investors who’d abandoned crude just a month ago were lured back by an OPEC-led campaign to bring runaway supplies in check coupled with algos who turned from net short back to long.

WTI crude closed above $52 a barrel, staging a powerful, 23% recovery after hitting an 18-month low on Christmas Eve. Brent, likewise, finished the day up 22% since bottoming out.

After ending 2018 in a deep bear market, oil sharply reversed course on signs that oil exporters will follow through on last month’s pledge to slash production, with Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih repeating that the plan was on track Wednesday even if DOE energy stocks showed a smaller drop in inventory than expected. The bigger catalyst in recent weeks, however, was hope that the U.S.-China trade war may be ending, boosting demand from the world's largest oil importer adding to oil’s momentum, even if hopes that the just concluded trade talks would lead to any immediate resolution turned out to be false.

“‘Sentiment went from completely negative a couple of weeks ago to very positive right now,” said Matt Sallee, a portfolio manager who helps oversee $16 billion in energy assets for Kansas-based Tortoise. “Everyone̵7;s just focused on the Saudis and they seem quite determined."

There's hope... and then there is reality which saw a whopping 10.6 million barrel surge in distillates and over 8 million barrels of gasoline added this week, numbers which were generally ignored by the market, which instead has been focusing on the recent plunge in the dollar, the result of a far more dovish Fed, which has helped support oil prices as the dollar decline made commodities priced in the U.S. currency more affordable.

“There is further upside to come in prices, as we see more evidence coming through that members of OPEC+ are complying with their new production cut,” said Warren Patterson, senior commodities strategist at ING Bank NV. “We see the market largely balanced over the first half of 2019.”

[gabrieloak] 10/1/2019 15:16

Mark10101...

Definitely catching up on Trinity day today.

What you have just posted is potentially great news (40 mins old, so fresh)!

There was a sense of uncertainty last year with how the Petrotrin / Refinery overhaul would affect the POO received by Trinidadian oil companies...and the market dislikes uncertainty.

From this article it would appear that there may be efficiency and transparency on pricing.

One caveat: what is the handling fee...time will tell?

Good luck all long term holders...

G

[mark10101] 10/1/2019 15:02

"but the good news is that the first few shipments of crude oil were reported to have received prices in excess of the West Texas Intermediate benchmark.

This improved pricing should also help smaller oil companies who traditionally sold oil to the refinery prices lower than WTI. Other local operators have announced plans to increase investment in new production and there is some exploration activity happening."

[nocents] 10/1/2019 12:24

Mark. Agree. We are still sub-Placing price . I think the Placing may have been done with things in mind. At the time oil was high and it was not necessary. It has turned out well as no CLN dilution at aclow oil and share price price. But to have cash in the bank at a bulnerable market time would be a very strong position..and it was.
I don’t think Trin is just coasting here. Times in T and T they be a’changing. I feel convinced that advantage has been taken of the liwcoil price. To be sub-Placing(15p) and have risked NAV of 38p with similar broker targets is counter-intuitive. Simon Thompson hails Trin as a “Buy”. I hail it as a “ giveaway”. In the fourteens...yes totally.

[mark10101] 10/1/2019 10:51

SB, we have had the chance to sell at 18p, 20p and even 27p. I have not sold as I feel Bruce has the ambition to deliver somthing much greater in the coming years. I really hope Bruce has done some deals late last year. There are many small T&T oilers that were struggling at $70, some may have been very receptive to coming onboard with TRIN given our current financial strength. Interesting times!

[spellbrook] 10/1/2019 07:28

Is 2019 going to be TRIN time

Trinity Exploration & Production (TRIN:14p), an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focused solely on Trinidad and Tobago that I highlighted in the autumn (‘Resurrection points to a strong recovery’, 3 Sep 2018). The 2018 fourth-quarter oil price reversal dampened sentiment and Trinity’s share price is 17 per cent under water, but the investment thesis still holds.

Indeed, with Trinity achieving output of 3,000 barrels of oil per day in October, and bringing on stream six new wells in 2018, it is set up to further expand production this year. The debt-free company retains a cash balance of US$17.6m (£13.8m), equating to 25 per cent of its market capitalisation of £54m, part of which is being recycled into its profitable onshore drilling programme. It is lowly rated, too, with the shares priced two-thirds below risked net asset value (NAV) of 38p a share based on 2P proven reserves of 23.18m barrels and cash in the bank, one of the deepest discounts in its peer group. Buy

[mark10101] 09/1/2019 19:48

Yes, all very healthy to get a pull back after the first leg, TRIN often moves in waves/legs, pretty confident with oil rallying and hopefully the company delivering a solid update this time will be no different.

[nocents] 09/1/2019 18:52

Aah. Good for you MM. I saw it briefly dip to 14.11. I was about to buy but your purchase raised it . I agree with Mark that a shake-out of sellees is good. Very good. Sooner better. It’ll happen along the way.
I have no doubt update will be reassuring.But know better than to have false aspirations. RCP’s on Trintes should increase offshore. 2 new wells were due to be drilled December. It’s the rainy season...who knows? But wells produce even in rain don’t they Cerp? Floods are not abnormal in T and T. I don’t expect 10% onshore bopd drop !! I do think that low oil prices may have opened a door or two to a cash-rich company on good terms with the govt. having just paid back all debt.
This is still cheap at sub-Placing level but it is an excellent thing to shed many sellers asap.

[marvelman] 09/1/2019 15:56

...another 30,000 for me @14.11

[mark10101] 09/1/2019 15:51

Absolutely, when we take on 15p we want to do it with conviction. Some sells here is perfect. Appears buyers have not deserted with that big buy!

[spellbrook] 09/1/2019 15:46

we need a tick down ready for the next leg up

[mark10101] 09/1/2019 10:08

$50.80 WTI amazing the difference a few weeks make....

[sleveen] 09/1/2019 09:33

Probably an update due, so we should know soon enough.

[mark10101] 09/1/2019 09:22

MM, yes it does look like some are reading across from the CERP results, healthy to let some take profit now. It is not as if the bad weather was not talked about here before and likely already played a factor in the fall to 11.5p. It was an exceptionally wet time. The good news is TRIN has a good offshore presence where it is always wet and they increased production up to 1200bopd from 900bopd in the summer. That is up to October data provided by the government, so hopefully they will have added more to that with the further work they were doing.

In a time when oil was falling and the weather was tough I don’t think expectations can be built too highly for the coming update. I certainly won’t be cashing out at this level though.

[marvelman] 09/1/2019 09:14

CERP's missed targets citing the weather as ONE of the reasons for their poor performance affecting sentiment here it would seem. As if the weather does not have an impact of some kind EVERY year in T & T

[spellbrook] 09/1/2019 07:48

Do they ever get these predictions right ?

[sleveen] 09/1/2019 07:32

...and yet they hit an all time production record.

WTI this morning $50.30, this time yesterday $48.50.

[astorcourt] 09/1/2019 07:26

Read the weather conditions for last quarter 2018 in Columbus RNS.

Trinidad been badly hit, Columbus blame it on the weather.

[ffp] 08/1/2019 23:21

Oh chuckle....Well said Sir.