Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 28/8/2017 15:23

WIT as ever thanks for your post re the differential, makes sense. As you say not critical to TRIN and if the sector as a whole hasbottomed TRIN should follow.

[whiskeyinthejar] 28/8/2017 15:06

Oil price is certainly a factor in TRIN share price I think, but not necessarily the spot price itself as rossannan says. It's fear and greed, rather than arithmetic. The wti bottom for this year was mid June at about $42. But TRIN is roughly at the same price now as it was in mid June.

Rising wti does help us though. But its the direction of wti though thats often more important, rather than the spot price. eg wti at $45 on a rising trend will encourage investors to buy shares in oil companies, but if wti is at $50 and falling day by day they'll tend to wait to buy oil shares, hoping to buy cheaper later.

In fact I think the company has made some modest progress since it peaked at 18.5p in March and IMO there's no fundamental reason for it falling back almost 50%. But the story IMHO has been this down trend and waiting for confirmation that the bottom is in. However, it looks like we may have finally bottomed so we might get a run up now ahead of trading update. Especially as production has bottomed now and should continue trending up now I think.

[whiskeyinthejar] 28/8/2017 14:43

mark, the big refineries on Texas coast have been shut down because of the storm. Obviously wti is price settled at Cushing in Oklahoma, so there'll be less demand for crude at Cushing from the pipelines that go to the refineries. Brent on other hand is international so is being boosted by supply disruptions- pipeline blockades in Libya slashing production by nearly 400,000 barrels per day.

So spread widening should largely be short term, but supply/ demand may vary differently in US/internationallly. It's still costly to pipe oil around the US or from US to international markets. Shale companies dont get the full wti price as they have to transport their oil to Cushing.

Map makes the point:

[mark10101] 28/8/2017 13:04

Does anyone know why there is currently a $5 differential between Brent and WTI? It used to be that way but recently with the US exporting the gap closed but now getting wide again.

[croasdalelfc] 27/8/2017 18:52

The share price is riding on the back of weak WtI price.The first half saw average price of $46.4 a barrel so probably an average wti price of $50.5. And $13.5 netbackThe second half so far has seen average wti of approx $46.5 so we are looking at a netback of $9.5 or so.First half profit approx $5.8mSecond half profit run rate about $4.0mEven with higher production to 2800 then it's only $4.5m in the second half.We need to see Wti rise to $50 plus and stay there for a few months to see a significant rise in the SP

[spellbrook] 27/8/2017 17:59

IMO the bod and the new director know we are onto a winner, wit will decide how much $$$ we make and they want some of it ...

[the big fella] 27/8/2017 09:31

An interesting read.

[mark10101] 26/8/2017 21:46

One for those who believe that shale oil will forever dominate the oil price. Higher prices will help them but seems it is a financial bubble waiting to pop.

[bones] 26/8/2017 15:20

Bid offer spread has been a nonsense for a while. Even yesterday with the 10.75-12.0 spread you could buy all day at 11.3p and I added another 75k at that price. Well loaded up now.

[squiresquire] 26/8/2017 11:53

If you look at the trading the important part to me is the way the MMs had the Bid and Offer all day. It was a huge spread from 10.75 to 12.25 with an increase of % 7 on the days trading. The point ime making is they are not for moving the Offer, very heavy selling wold change their minds, otherwise i think Friday marked the start of the up trend.

[the big fella] 25/8/2017 15:43

I bit of a luke warm reception to two lots of positive news. Hopefully the next set of results will be the trigger to break the chart downtrend northwards.

[esmerelda] 25/8/2017 12:53

That's very good news! As someone else said they should be able to get a bank loan next year to cover the $7m IF they have any need to, e.g. having spent some of the cash they have on drilling.

[mark10101] 25/8/2017 11:24

Jem Jem that is how I read that bit also. :-)

[jemjem] 25/8/2017 10:57

Also....

"- In respect of 10 per cent of the award, redemption of all the Convertible Loan Notes issued in January 2017 before the second anniversary of their issue."

That's also good news. It means control of the repayment of the CLN's is still in the hands of the BoD (after the sale of the West Coast assets) and they are now incentivised to repay the CLN's - rather than allow further dilution.

Imo

[wwick] 25/8/2017 10:18

"If the 3 month volume-weighted price ("VWAP") at the testing date is 35 pence or more per share, this part of the award will vest in full. " . . . So the directors are incentivised to get us to 35p ;-)

[wwick] 25/8/2017 08:05

Well done James Menzies, keep up the buying. Crazy not to at this level!

[trulyscrumptious] 25/8/2017 07:41

Long term this is a no-brainer as value always outs in the end.

[shrewdmole] 25/8/2017 07:20

Yes that's over 50 grands worth he's bought so far.

I did say the last Rns said initial purchase...

Must be comfortable with companies outlook and cashflow.

I'm happy to sit right here as at some point the valuation gap will close.

[deeppockets] 25/8/2017 07:13

Non Exec has bought more, encouraging sign!

[mark10101] 23/8/2017 18:28

Yes Ross, let others chase the "easy money". TRIN has the potential for many multiples from this ridiculous level. Since our high we have had several updates that push fair value ever higher. The only challenge TRIN investors face in the coming months is to effectively sit on their hands.

[bones] 23/8/2017 12:19

Seems pretty clear that there is a determined seller or some other overhang. Another 300k lump went out this morning. MM's simply lying in wait for the shares at a cheap price. When the word is out that the supply is finished, it should be lift off time.

[che7win] 23/8/2017 12:15

Toon, The fun nearly killed the business, it's a safe pair of hands alright, but there are some low cost drills to look forward to.I'm happy just to watch the cash accumulate here with measured expansion myself.