Trinity Exploration & Pr... Share Discussion Threads

[mark10101] 07/7/2017 12:42

What do they want to buy?

[lw425] 07/7/2017 12:38

Cheers.

Might wait for a few nice AT trades to appear at 12p and hope I can get in quickly enough.

[mark10101] 07/7/2017 12:30

They will take around that amount at 11.29

[lw425] 07/7/2017 12:19

Thinking about taking a small dabble but only for about 100k shares

[lw425] 07/7/2017 12:13

What are the sell limits please?

Ta

[trotterstrading] 07/7/2017 09:16

Generally it's when you throw in the towel, the breaks come off.. holding firm here

[mark10101] 07/7/2017 08:32

Looks like an order at around 11.5p being filled, they don't want any other buyers by the looks of it.

[yasx] 06/7/2017 23:59

Despite the recent shift in oil price form 42 to 47, this had negligible impact on TRIN. Disappointing.

I like gold here, but, wondering whether or not a switch from less oil to more gold is worthwhile.

[whiskeyinthejar] 06/7/2017 15:57

Petrotrin looks to be in precarious position with the refinery shut down and debts it cant pay.

Anyway, IMO interestingly, but not surprisingly, quote from Energy Minister is that their operating cost is $44/barrel. That's just lifting cost.



I don't see Petrotrin getting their costs down to TRIN level - too much union power.

So IMO tax regime for oil companies needs to be more generous at low poo; so that Petrotrin can make money.

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 10:32

Yes and moving the 2c to 2p should be straightforward, this is why we are a tasty take over target at under £100m.

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 10:26

One thing we haven't touched on is ev.
Getting the 2c to 2p gives us about 40m barrels and what do you value that at in situ with such low extraction costs?

I've read 3,4 or 5 dollars per barrel?

S

[marvelman] 06/7/2017 10:19

Agree with all of that Shrewdy. Been a bumpy ride recently but it is difficult to argue against the solid base fundamentals this company exhibits.

[aimmafia] 06/7/2017 10:08

Snooze fest

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 10:00

Mole yes I was on the cautious size. I could have sold at 18p, I was at my desk when it hit but I do not regret having a longer term view, as you say risk reward at these levels nicely weighted and that is without any surprise upside news, that is just iff we plod along with current plan.

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:59

Marvel

I see your point but that debt is or was $9.2m I believe so 18 months worth of payments.

The restructuring Rns also stated a net cash position after taking into account the debt and the Rns also stated some of the fund raising was to be used to pay down the debt.

Let's also not forget the board own 24% of this now and are very respected in the sector.

S

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:56

Yes I suspect weakness here is understandable if there is a view oil falls into the $30 range like some believe. If we get a pop in oil to $60 surprising people to the upside we should then be $2m/month post operational and G&A costs and things will get a lot more interesting here.

I think long term the reality is our cash cushion and current operating profits should see us through whatever the oil maerket can throw at us. There will be carnage elsewhere before the wheels fall off here again.

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:51

Lw/Mark

That assumes oil at $40 and if you looked at h1 weighted average it's been more like mid to high $40's.

Admittedly there is a lot going on and that's what the funds were raised for to carry out the overhaul and upgrade infrastructure.

The company investor presentation also states they are profitable and generating free cash each month. Add in the comparables on asset values above from zengas and big fella which are very compelling and I don't think this is anywhere near fair value. As for volumes etc they have been all over the place.

The upside in production and oil price potentially makes this a bargain in my eyes. Hence why I'm a buyer when funds allow at these levels.

Risk reward ratio is very sweet imho.

Downsides are limited as even if oil dropped their costs at circa $29-30 pb are low, and h1 was the hard work so we should see a steady production increase through the next 12 months.

Then add in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the amount of upsides re production, poo, new wells, galeanta etc are not priced in at all.

Only downside I can see is the odd technical issue but as the wells are low cost low production of 1 or 2 had issues its not like we're producing 500bopd from 5 wells.

S

[marvelman] 06/7/2017 09:45

I suppose the repayments of $500k per month does not give a big enough cushion for many in these volatile oil markets hence the caution on the buy side. On the plus side there is still a healthy cash balance currently.

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:39

-- The consolidated operating break even oil price for the Group for the nine months to 30 September 2016, including G&A, was US$29.4/bbl which compares to consolidated break even oil prices of US$62.9/bbl in 2013, US$64.6/bbl in 2014, US$47.4/bbl in 2015 and US$30.0/bbl in H1 2016.

I think it will be base on the $29.9 and saying we approx making $10/b ATM and multiplying by 2600 x30 which is $780,000/month ATM. Things get a lot more interesting if oil was to approach $60. I think with oil where it is we are at a sensible price around 15p and my comments are based on an optimism on an improving oil outlook. We all know optimism and oil are not going hand in hand ATM....

[lw425] 06/7/2017 09:16

Mole

If you compare the RNS's from 25th April and AGM statement. The cash actually fell a little between end Feb and end May. Also creditor payments not due to start until June.

How on earth do you conclude they are making $1m a month.

They clearly are not at the moment unless you have explanation for the facts above.

This is why no one is buying. We appear fairly valued perhaps?

"cash balances at the end of February 2017 had increased to US$13.0 million" (due to refinancing... my emphasis)

"cash balances as at 31 May 2017 of US$12.4 million"

"This includes amounts due to State Creditors (US$13.5m), which are due to be repaid in 10 quarterly instalments commencing in June 2017"

[lw425] 06/7/2017 09:13

So can buy 150k at 12.12p and 250k at 12.22p ect....

Can anyone post limits to sell.

Thanks

[shrewdmole] 06/7/2017 09:10

Trotters

What's your take on free cash generation per month I have about $1m per month?

S

[trotterstrading] 06/7/2017 09:06

I'm accumulating, the buyer is obviously patient but I can't see many sellers below current levels, that would be madness

[mark10101] 06/7/2017 09:03

Yes, sensing they need to move up to drive some volume, it did seem some where happy to sell on the last run. Like you say given the severe undervaluation here it is amazing they find any sellers under 20p.