Trikona Trinity Capital Share Discussion Threads

[badtime] 06/11/2009 09:43

Blimey...death by a thousand cuts here

[mark1000] 04/11/2009 17:01

A big transaction buy 2.4M went through today - see if any of our major shareholder have moved their holdings up or down.

[badtime] 27/10/2009 09:12

And back down we go..lol

[mark1000] 20/10/2009 13:13

DCOM - As always more buyers than sellers our largest shareholder may have stopped selling - this really is a no brainer intersting to see what comes out of the AGM

[dcomd99] 20/10/2009 09:16

Do we have action?

[mark1000] 19/10/2009 12:26

Most days quite a number of small buys few sells - recent dip has been caused by the largest shareholder selling down keeping now well under 30% might have been in anticipation of a wave of buy backs although you would have thought they would have sold into the buy backs for a higher price.

[rbcrbc] 19/10/2009 11:53

Nice buying this morning, small deals so I dont think any buy-back has restarted. Probably been tipped somewhere.

AGM next month.

[mark1000] 13/10/2009 18:09

I see from the RNS we have the Rockefeller Brothers investing in this share - it deserves to be higher than it is currently trading suppose we will see a move towards 60p around the time of the AGM.

[mark1000] 13/10/2009 11:58

DCOM - I agree it should work out at 30% compound growth on the current share price over the next three years. We have GDP growth of 6%+ per year in India compare that with the UK we may even see the exchange rate improve as the GBP falls further as we emerse ourselves in debt.

[dcomd99] 12/10/2009 18:49

I initially bought these for a quick low risk return. I coming to the view that this is good for the long term. Good discount to NAV in a country which will grow much faster than the UK.

[rbcrbc] 12/10/2009 18:23

I guess at least we will have a year to understand its true market value.....

[mark1000] 12/10/2009 16:58

I see we have a 12 month lock in on Pipavev from the RNS so there goes my theory that they could pay the 88M pre 31/03/10 - suppose 50% by 31/03/10 and the rest pre 31/03/11?

[mark1000] 12/10/2009 10:11

DCOM
The point is that QVT have sold only a smallish part of their holding - of course they are unlikely to bid to buy the Company now they are selling down although surely they must have given this some consideration. They probably find themselves in the same position as we do but under much greater pressure a share drifting down in a market rising strongly as fund managers their investors cannot be happy with this short term performance but like us they know good returns are available for those who are prepared to wait. So they are tinkering around releasing some cash (may be internal cashflow requirement) but essentially still very much long and strong as I see it.

[rbcrbc] 10/10/2009 10:13

You are probably right dcomd99

[badtime] 09/10/2009 22:33

agree with u both

[dcomd99] 09/10/2009 22:32

Mark100

I don't disagree with what you say. I was simply questioning RBCRBC's statement. Why would QVT sell at this point?

At one point I had about 10% TRC, but this has now fallen to about 5% (and I haven't sold any!) They are safer than some, but in this market people don't want to miss out.

[mark1000] 09/10/2009 11:38

dcomd99
Patience the AGM is in November see RNS - all will be revealed I am sure we will hear more about the distribution of the next tranche - they may even be able to distribute the full GBP 88M before 31st March 2010 I guess the best way would be by way of tender say 84p per share with say one share being bought for every two held. The remaining shares should then have a NAV of say 142p may be even higher when the results for 31/03/10 get published.

It is certainly not a 10 bagger but I think good for 30% a year for the next three years for many investors this return would just not be acceptable.

[dcomd99] 08/10/2009 19:14

RBCRBC

I don't understand your logic. If TRC announce a buy back, QVT could sell at the new higher price. My guess is that they are running out of patience. This share has done nothing for 5 months, and during this time other shares have rocketed. Perhaps QVT see better opportunities elsewhere for some of their 30%.

I hold some TRC, but see them as pseudo cash with potential upside. Hence, if the market crashed tomorrow, I thought TRC would provide protection. I can wait, but they are definitely under-performing at present.

[rbcrbc] 08/10/2009 09:36

Maybe they are selling to keep under the limit before the next step of the buy-back ?

[badtime] 07/10/2009 19:38

QVT..selling a few as price is softening a tad

[ilostthelot] 30/9/2009 17:32

High volume selling today os was that buying ? I am still on the sidelines bideing my time cash else where just now Ill be back. Good luck

[badtime] 29/9/2009 20:21

Just bidding my time personally...............wont b making a bid though..lol

[mark1000] 29/9/2009 13:21

The NAV was calculated as at 31/03/09 since then market conditions in India have improved against this the exchange rate has gone from 72.86 to 76.4 today
of course we have also bought back 9% of the shares for 12M so we may have a higher NAV than 113 but even at 113 we are trading at a 50% discount. I did hope for something more specific on the buyback as Graham says above we are probably looking at a tender document but my guess is we will have to wait for the AGM which I assume will be in December given they continue to make realisations as planned would not rule out a tender to buy back 50% of the shares at say between 80p to 90p timed to be completed by 31/03/10 so they can say the 100M has been distributed a year ealier than planned. This should then result in the accounts 31/03/10 to show a NAV back over 1.60 all things being equal.

Just a final thought could our near 30% shareholder decide now is the time for a full bid.

[grahamg8] 29/9/2009 08:40

Massive read in the results. No news on how the distribution is going to be made, just a hint that up to 70% of the shares can be bought through a tender offer. However still committed to distribute £100m within 24 months of March 2009, presumably the £12m spent on share purchases so far form part of this. Pipavav now in the books at 47 Rupees per share vs 58 Rupee IPO price so that's a profit waiting to be realised. There seems to be no tie in post IPO and seen as a realisation opportunity. IL&FS going down the same route with Red Herring prospectus out any day and IPO to follow.

Patient investors look like being rewarded by near 100% gain to come in the next 18 months - £88m divided by 210,682,298 shares =42pps. The impatient will presumably sell up and move on. Share dip followed by steady rise?

EDIT: The 'gain' is a bit illusory as it comes from the assets, but NAV is 113pps so if you take out 42pps and there is no share price reaction we would have a new share price of 13p (based on 55pps now) and assets of 71pps. With the same discount to NAV of 51% the share price should rise to 34pps so the gain on this basis would be 21pps over the next 18 months, with more to come from assets yet to be realised and the discount gap should ultimately disappear as all the projects get sold off.