Tribal Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 19/1/2014 14:03

This was an interesting sentence from the Tech Market View analysis on the y/e Trading Update:

"We will be taking a closer look at the higher and further education markets later in the year; several of the big SIs, as well as some software providers, have singled out the sector as a target growth market."

TRB are forecast to do PBT c.£16m in y/e 2015, that is without any upgrades, say with a fair wind they do PBT c.£18m, in a red hot tech scene with, maybe, big hungry buyers after the de facto leader in Uni software in the UK & Oz, who's just setting off to conquer North America, what kind of multiple would a buyer have to pay? 10x, 15x, 20x?

10x = £180m = 192p

15x = £270m = 288p

20x = £360m = 384p

[deltrotter] 16/1/2014 12:19

I work at a Uni that literally runs on SITS. Once you do that then there is no turning back so I would have thought recurring revenue was good. You also have to buy in consultancy to make changes to the system for localisation.

[simon gordon] 16/1/2014 10:25

Tech Market View - 16/1/14:

Tribal dances its way to the end of FY13

The positive updates keep coming from Tribal Group, the systems and solutions provider to the education, learning and training markets (see Tribal still on track). This time its trading update ahead of its full year results (due in March) highlights a stronger than expected final quarter (to end December); PBT and EPS will therefore be better than previous expectations. Net debt has also reduced significantly over the twelve months period: from £9.9m to £4.6m. The share price in early trading is up over 7%. In May things had not been looking quite so positive when the company reported a drop in the order book (see Tribal orders drop), so it looks like Tribal cut its cost base in anticipation of a far worse year.

It appears that the 'Systems' business has made particularly good progress, with major education management system projects "on track" and a healthy level of opportunities cited in the UK and internationally. Notably, the higher education market is singled out as having a particularly high level of opportunities. We will be taking a closer look at the higher and further education markets later in the year; several of the big SIs, as well as some software providers, have singled out the sector as a target growth market.

The Solutions business, meanwhile, performed "as anticipated". In the UK, quality assurance work remains on track and performance improvement activities had a strong end to the year. In May 2013, a drop in the order book was largely blamed on a quiet UK market for 'Solutions'.

Overall, the order book is described as "resilient"; though it is down from £168m (at the same time last year) to £129m, mainly due to the maturity of the company's Ofsted inspection contracts. Tribal says that "technology is becoming increasingly pervasive throughout (its) work" – thus validating the Group's decision at the start of 2013 to refocus the Solutions business around offering services founded upon software-based tools.

[irchris] 16/1/2014 08:48

Really positive Trading Update from Tribal Group plc this morning, profits expected to be up, debt down, full order book, strong demand in international markets for many new sales :

" ... the Board now anticipates that adjusted profit before tax and earnings per share for the year ended 31 December 2013 will be better than previous expectations ...

... Tribal has continued to generate good operating cash flow and, combined with the benefit of focussed working capital management, net debt at the end of December 2013 was £4.6m (1 January 2013: £9.9m) ...

... Tribal's order book at 31 December 2013 remains resilient at £129m ... "

[iandippie] 16/1/2014 08:07

Wow! New high today?....Thank you (again) SCSW. :-)

[illtud] 16/1/2014 07:19

Interesting update today. 'adjusted profit before tax and earnings... better than previous expectations'

Net debt down to £4.6m at the end of December 2013 from £9.9m at the end of December 2012.

At that rate, Tribal should be debt free this year.

illtud

[napoleon 14th] 14/1/2014 21:23

Good one simon.
Great reference!

[moneymaker80] 14/1/2014 16:56

Also bought today. Seems to be on the move again,

[gucci] 14/1/2014 11:09

back in today

[simon gordon] 09/1/2014 09:33

YouTube:

Published on 9 Jan 2014

The first film in the 'Powered by Tribal' series. Exeter University describe how Tribal's Enterprise Service Desk software has enhanced the delivery of their student services.

[illtud] 08/1/2014 16:10

Thanks napoleon. I agree with all you've said including it's on the way back up, with the caveat that it still may not go up in a straight line.

I think 2014 could be a good year for Tribal shareholders

[napoleon 14th] 08/1/2014 12:52

On the way back up imo.

[illtud] 19/12/2013 22:37

I'm trying to understand charts and am beginning to see a glimmer of light so I am now able to follow some of the reasoning in fingers' charts above.

However, I am doubtful that charts are more than a rough guide to what might happen as they seem to work independently of actual events. For example, if Tribal produces a stormer of a report or TA then shouldn't that over ride any existing trend.

I believe that Tribal is likely to be making a good profits with a strong cashflow and that will be reported in the next report.

Until that happens, fingers' chart may well be right but things will change afterwards.

Just my opinion

illtud

[fingers xxd] 19/12/2013 18:32

Simon Gordon - TRB

[illtud] 12/12/2013 21:43

Interesting but it doesn't explain a lot about how exactly Tribal would deliver what is needed.

The idea of a system that brings in all agencies involved with a child and follows the child throughout childhood is great, of course, because children known to be vulnerable or even 'at risk' can very easily get lost in the present system and end up 'whereabouts unknown'.

There used to be a fairly rigorous system for tracking every child's move from school to school. When a child left one school to go to another, the head of the first school had to pass a copy of the pupil's records to the new school who had then to confirm to the previous school that the child had been admitted. In that way, it became known immediately if a child 'dropped out' and enquiries would be made, involving the Local Education Authorities and Social Services. Simple really.

Unfortunately, the rules were changed by various governments so that those records were no longer required to be kept.

Now, so I am told by a recently retired primary school headteacher, there are estimated to be somewhere in excess of 10,000 children in the UK whose whereabouts are unknown. Estimated because the systems no longer exist within the education system to record them or locate them. I don't know about the health or social services systems.

The point is that there is a desperate need for a workable system that encompasses all child agencies.

The Tribal system may be it.

illtud

[simon gordon] 12/12/2013 13:23

YouTube - Published on 12 Dec 2013:

Synergy Early Intervention and Safeguarding (EIS) has been designed in collaboration with Social Care experts and practitioners to provide local authorities with a flexible and innovative approach to managing critical information within child protection services.

The solution is designed to rapidly adapt to changes in policy or legislation, while ensuring your practitioners can focus on keeping children and young people safe.

[illtud] 30/11/2013 22:14

I can only agree.

It's one of my biggest holdings. I like the whole story of the present set up and have great hopes.

I see the share price make good advances in 2014 after the March report and do even better in 2015. In the meantime, I think we will have to wait, although the share price has the capacity to surprise us with sudden little surges for no apparent reason.

illtud

[simon gordon] 30/11/2013 21:45

Illtud,

Thanks.

I see TRB as a multi year growth story, a potential FTSE 250 company in the making. They've got all the ingredients; best in class software, global market to aim at, smart bolt-ons, decent balance sheet, management team who are building a reputation for innovation and delivery.

[illtud] 30/11/2013 20:46

simon gordon.

I hope you continue to post on here. You seem very good at digging things out. You encourage me to try harder.

illtud

[illtud] 30/11/2013 20:41

A well thought out, all embracing but highly focused system. Typical of Tribal imho.

Given Tribal's experience of developing similar systems for Universities and Colleges and their experience of school inspections, I would expect Synergy to be a very good system. Possibly a world beater like SITS VISION.

illtud

[illtud] 30/11/2013 20:34

Apart from Capita, other companise that offer similar systems include; WCBS, Feduna, RM Education and OpenEMIS.

There may be others.

WCBS seems to specialise in the private school market

Feduna is International, multi cultural and multi lingual.

RM Education appears to be more about educational resources

OpenEMIS is a royalty free generic system, sponsored by UNESCO and largely designed for third world countries.

Tribal is focused more on the English speaking countries but there are signs of that changing.

illtud

[illtud] 30/11/2013 18:51

No I don't. It's something I've never done.

However, in a previous life, I used to be an education administrator and dealt with most of the back office functions over the years so I fool myself that I can understand what Tribal and Compass are doing. I even planned and introduced a pupil/student based database for the Local Authority I worked for, but nothing like Synergy.

illtud

[simon gordon] 30/11/2013 18:29

Illutd,

I agree the SIMS product is more back office orientated but does look like it offers some of the Synergy functionality but, like you say, it's not such a focused product for pupil support and administration.

Be excellent if there wasn't a similar product in the market.

Do you converse with TRB?