Triad Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 17/6/2019 16:30

If they double the interim div that would make 4 p ten percent return !That's worth thinking about !Sicknote

[pride23s] 17/6/2019 16:22

Future dividend that is !! My correction

[pride23s] 17/6/2019 14:14

That would be my thoughts too plus giving up a nice dividend by selling now.

[s34icknote] 17/6/2019 13:45

Bodes well. Stock being absorbed for next leg up !Sicknote

[pride23s] 17/6/2019 12:01

Lots of volume on selling but the price had not yet moved !!The market may be pricing the stock closer to what it should be ..

[brendainvesta] 14/6/2019 22:32

Will someone please lock this lunatic up, this is my pension she is destroying. Anyone with an ounce of intellect can see she is living in a very sad place and needs help. She is a bully, she attacks normal people doing their jobs, she has hounded and been vile to so many innocent employees of so many companies. Seriously it is time she is put behind bars and removed from polite society.

[brendainvesta] 14/6/2019 18:07

Well done Owenski, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice.

[owenski] 14/6/2019 10:11

Thanks Mira, not that it's my business, but dont you think sometimes that this TRD litigation is consuming a lot of your life? Regards

I have a Tallis CD, I enjoy polyphonic sounds, also like Vaughan Williams Fantasy on Tallis, cheers

[netcurtains] 13/6/2019 16:03

LeoInvestorUK: psst, I'm pretty sure they have increased head count some what already (without updating web) ....... Stuff like this type of article is a bit of a give away (if read between the lines)

[owenski] 13/6/2019 15:48

Mira, what should we do, buy, sell or hold? lol

[leoinvestoruk] 13/6/2019 15:02

On the morning of the results I wrote the following:

Please refer to my results preview [on my LeoInvestorUK blog].

Quick points:

* Lower turnover and profits, but higher margins, all as expected and as guided in H1.
* Dividend doubled as hoped to 2p, a total of 3p and a yield of 7% at Friday’s closing price.
* Cash up another £0.8m to £4.6m despite lower profits and higher interim dividend.
* No obvious (to me) accounting nasties – e.g. receivables have fallen broadly in line with turnover.
* No exceptional costs from legal action that previously left them under a cloud, although some distraction is acknowledged.

They say that the improvement to gross margin “reflects the Group’s commitment to reduce low-margin contractor business” but the reality is that the short-term cause was a reduction in the availability of that kind of business. Although they may be chasing less of this kind of work, changes in the taxation of contractors is likely to reduce their numbers in their competitors also, and likely in the industry as a whole. Nonetheless, this is a welcome development which should support Triad in creating their own culture and competitive advantage.

They plan to double fee-earning staff numbers and indeed they are advertising on their website for a large number of permanent positions (as well as contract positions), but with limited progress to date as average headcount has fallen slightly since FY 2018.

They are the fourth biggest government supplier in their market. They warn on increased competition in public sector contracts. On the positive side they have a base of reliable income derived from their GIS specialism.

In terms of Brexit, I note that a company like Triad may benefit as increased reliance is based on staff from outside the EU who must be sponsored by a permanent employer for a visa. Such staff are somewhat tied to their employer and are in any case likely to be more loyal.

Cash now makes up £4.6m of their £6.9m market captialisation and does not appear to be especially seasonal. How much is free cash is always a matter of opinion, and with an increased reliance on permanent staff perhaps they need to retain more to cover salaries of staff “on the bench” during a downturn.

Diluted EPS is 5.44p which puts them on a PE of 8 which doesn’t seem especially cheap given the falling earnings trend, the low quality and lumpy nature of some of their business.

However if you consider the 29p / share cash to be mostly free, and consider the falling earnings have at least slowed then with a share price of 43p the adjusted PE of under 4 they look like a bargain. If you believe they can return to growth then it is easy to see very significant upside in the share.

I currently hold a medium-sized position and hope to add a little at the bell before the market reacts to the lifting of uncertainty over costs of legal action and wakes up to (what I believe is) underlying value.

[netcurtains] 11/6/2019 09:58

perhaps that post was a bit mean... Sorry.

[netcurtains] 11/6/2019 09:00

Triad also strongly pushing Microsoft power platform solutions in August (sponsoring show)

[buywell3] 11/6/2019 08:38

Can't see them doing that though it does not make for rational business decision making.
macd in header looks dodgy to me

well done bones with WEY
Make them assets sweat ... I like that
Take a look at my last post on VENN today

[amt] 11/6/2019 07:31

Buywell3. Even if profits collapse to zero there is enough cash to pay Dividends for the next 12 years.

[bones] 10/6/2019 16:03

Maybe so Net, but I’m trying to make my assets sweat, rather than curl up at the edges waiting for something to happen :)

Eg, my decision to abandon ship and stick it in WEY last month was a pearler (it doubled). If the market looks anaemic then I might ship some into TRD purely for defensive reasons but not just now.

I admire your loyalty to TRD though.

[netcurtains] 10/6/2019 15:27

buywell3:
(a) definitely LESS EU IT staff coming here
(b) politics might not allow others come either....
(c) work has to continue...
This means window of opportunity for SMALL UK based IT companies to fill in the void.

[buywell3] 10/6/2019 14:48

If TRD perform like they did last year

I think dividends will take a hit/stop

Because it could go break-even like what I said last post

Government contracts .... whilst a couple of years ago looked ok

In today's messy political quagmire ... buywell gives this a thumbs down

I shan't be investing ... but thankyou

[netcurtains] 10/6/2019 14:35

bones: come on, within a couple of years Triad will have more money in the bank then its market cap!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Each year that is another 500K whacked into the high interest account.
It cant go down much but it can go up loads.
the cash is like a BOTTOM LINE to any fall.
The rise can be due to anything.
Risk Reward says... BUY.

[bones] 10/6/2019 10:37

Agree with you Jane Deer on those points.

Net, its good that the company sees a longer term benefit in bolstering headcount, although this is to supplant contractors due to legislation in part, I guess. Growth is some way off I fear.

My overriding thought is that the management at board level is desperately in need of an injection of fresh blood, or the company needs to go private if the majority Rigg/Makar block is staying in place. This is preventing any hope of a takeover at a premium.

[jane deer] 10/6/2019 09:44

Agree valuation is bonkers, but route to resolve it is still unclear. 1) Intentions of large s/h still unclear; 2) aging management team, with no clear succession plan; 3) unclear whether history with large shareholder would act as a poison pill if management decided to try to find a buyer for the company; 4) unclear impact of introduction of off-rolling reforms in April 2020.