Triad Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 13:31

The only way to obtain staff for growth for the larger companies might be via a takeover.

Any other route takes an age perhaps 2 or 3 years

Training is fabulous but it slows down today’s output and costs money.

Yet again it shows TRD played a master stroke hiring heaps of staff over the last 18 months.

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 13:26

The valuation of all these companies has changed over the last 18 months due to COVID and the tax treatment of staff.

Previously staff were contractors who could up sticks after a few months, weeks, or even days.

Thus, a bidder was in effect buying worthless goodwill.

Today TRD has just short of 100 highly prized staff, and contracts to boot.

COVID has pushed the workload through the roof.

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 13:21

Corporate action by others is one obviously one way a company can grow.

I which case the price paid, would have to be at least based on next years profits.

I have these at £4.7M.

Kainos could use its shares as currency.

For it to be worthwhile the price would still need to be at a discount to their own PE ratio of over 50.

The Triad directors might accept half that, but since Kainos are one of many potential bidders the price achieved might be considerably higher.



Remove Traids cash pile, and the market cap is a tiny £12M.

It again shows how crazy today’s quote of £1.00 a share is.

[bones] 18/8/2021 13:14

Net, for reference, this is what Kainos said in their last published accounts:

”It is our preference to grow organically; we will undertake acquisitions only in exceptional circumstances, for instance, where we need to obtain unique skills.”

This is not ruling it out of course. It may be that Triad’s blockchain partnership - once up and running - will be a source of “unique skills” of interest to Kainos!

In general, they also commented about the available market to all IT companies:

”With 96% of the world’s IT expenditure still rooted to on-premise technology, there is significant work to transform organisations to being cloud-enabled.”;

[netcurtains] 18/8/2021 12:24

Kainos up again.
Clearly they are doing very well...

Triad are in the EXACT SAME industry.
Market Cap now £2.2B

Its not rocket science.



I can see an end game to this where Triad get bought by Kainos. I cant see
how Kainos's growth is sustainable without them taking over companies like Triad.

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 11:24

Since the average headcount is used in the annual report, we can also safely assume that 93 will be a minimum of average this year. ( 7.5 months of new year hires to go.).


That is an extremely impressive number.

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 11:21

33% increase year on year.

Since TRD are still hiring at pace, and we are not even half way through the year, the prospects for hitting the magic 100 staff by Xmas, seem odds on.

It must be remembered that the central overhead cost is just about stable, and each new headcount member that is hired chips into that cost.

This has the effect of increasing profits substantially going forward.

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 11:15

Total staff numbers today.

LinkedIn

Triad Group Plc

Information Technology and Services

Godalming, Surrey 2,629 followers

Defining, designing and delivering digital solutions that unlock ROI from technology spend.

View all 93 employees

[sunshine today] 18/8/2021 11:12

To 31/03/21


Total staff costs have increased to GBP5.7m (2020: GBP5.2m) (note 7). The total average headcount for the year has increased to 68 (2020:62) and due to the strategy of building permanent fee-earning consultants during the year, the number of consultants at the year-end has increased by a net 21 to 58 (2020: 37). Consultant numbers continue to grow into the new financial year and is a key component of the Group's strategy to grow both margin and profitability. Non-consultant staff numbers at the close of the year have remained static as the ratio of fee earners improves to 5:1 (2020: average 4:1).

[sunshine today] 17/8/2021 15:06

Yes and all that’s required is for TRD to clear 17% profit on turnover like Kainos do.

I believe TRD will do a minimum of 12% this year, producing £2M of pre tax profit, and due to previous losses, a similar amount post tax.

PE of just 12.

That can then be re rated towards a massive 56 that Kainos trades on today.

TRD should then double profits again in 22 -23.

Don’t forget the dividend yield on top.

[netcurtains] 17/8/2021 13:49

Come on Triad old son. Look how Kainos is booming ahead....



Lets get this past £2...

[sunshine today] 16/8/2021 12:44

Agreed:

Investors have trouble investing without official profit forecasts, even though if one reads the annual report, you can see the direction of travel.

On the upside, if most are not expecting a minimum of a 100% profit rise over last year, then the shares should react accordingly.

On another note Stratis our blockchain partner, are going great guns.

[bones] 16/8/2021 11:30

Could be that at the next declaration of results or update, there will be a big improvement on all parameters which would have a magnifier effect on the bottom line and EPS readings.

[sunshine today] 16/8/2021 10:38

I also read at the weekend it’s only been in the last 18 months since TRD have been winning large contracts. Previously much of their work was lower margin on behalf of others.

As a shareholder we have rising margins, and I also believe turnover has also turned positive this first half.

[bones] 16/8/2021 09:38

Good point, Net. What is also hidden there is the 30% of the shares bought back by the company in 2002 at 26.5p each, after the dot com blow up. Since then, I am not aware of any fund raise by the company except through the odd options for directors.

[sunshine today] 16/8/2021 09:33

It’s always dangerous to make share price predictions.

The chart shows a 7 quid high. ( heaps more shares were in issue back then ).

16M shares in issue today times 7 would = £112M market cap.

Reverse that into a PE ratio of 20 pre tax or 25 post tax and a profit of £5.3M is required.

Since I predict a profit next year of £4.7M pre tax and £4M post tax, we could well be looking at a fiver a lot sooner than most think.

The following year my projections zoom past the £7.00 marker.

Don’t forget , when a share gets re rated it often has a higher historic PE as investors always look to the next set of results.

[netcurtains] 16/8/2021 09:09

the long term view always makes me chuckle.

[bones] 16/8/2021 08:57

The 5/3/21 purchase (Fulton and wife together) was actually 100,000 at an average 116.25p. Total cost £116,250.

Big commitment and the guy is over 70.

[sunshine today] 16/8/2021 07:34

Since these Director buys, new contracts have been won ,the company has returned to profit, paying a dividend to boot. !

Yet any new potential investor, can purchase shares for less than the director paid in the spring.



Declared Type Director Pos. Volume / Price Value
16/03/21 BUY Alistair Fulton RES 8,150 @ £1.45 £11,818.00
16/03/21 BUY Alistair Fulton RES 8,150 @ £1.45 £11,818.00
16/03/21 BUY Alistair Fulton RES 13,690 @ £1.40 £19,166.00
16/03/21 BUY Alistair Fulton RES 13,690 @ £1.40 £19,166.00
05/03/21 BUY Alistair Fulton RES 25,000 @ £1.20 £30,000.00

[sunshine today] 15/8/2021 12:17

STTRX token now has market cap of $225M.

However I believe the real value is to be found in Stratis Group Ltd. (TRD”S partner)

BAAS ( Blockchain as a service)

[sunshine today] 15/8/2021 12:01

nomuppets
@nomuppets
·
14 Aug
Good documentation leads to better understanding and eventually to more adoption. This is by far the most promising project on $STRAX The approach of having development, documentation and education run in parallel is an awesome strategy

The future is looking epic
@OpdexProtocol

[netcurtains] 15/8/2021 09:47

The BIG tech drive to get staff to work back in the office might help SMALL tech pick up new staff who want to work from home (as long as Triad can continue to offer this perk).
Triad are still recruiting (9 adverts on Jobserve last week).

[sunshine today] 13/8/2021 09:24

TRD is not loaded with potential diluting options. ( that’s refreshing ).

Some are available for staff, which is fine, but not in any amounts that should worry shareholders.

In fact, their are less shares in issue, than 20 years ago.!

[netcurtains] 13/8/2021 09:10

Agreed it is also odd that Alistair Fulton did not appear to get any "cheap" shares, all his shares appear to have been at market rate.
I dont think he was at the AGM either.
Do we know why Mr Fulton was absent?