Triad Share Discussion Threads

[cjohn] 23/6/2020 10:09

Yes, if they get a couple of decent contract wins, the share price will certainly take off.

It's a cheap share, but with significant risk as well.

[joerog] 23/6/2020 10:03

Thanks for your view. I am invested in hope that they achieve a decent contract which hasn't been factored in and they can get revenues back to 6m plus and profitability again.

[cjohn] 23/6/2020 09:29

Hi, joerog,

No, I'm not invested in SIM. I'm put off by the lumpiness of their turnover and the fact that they have to maintain so much inventory. It means they don't generate much/any free cash and at some point they may well have a significant inventory write down.

[joerog] 22/6/2020 18:51

Thanks CJohn. Are you invested in it? What are your thoughts? Any other ideas?

[cjohn] 22/6/2020 17:38

$7.022m asset value.

- $1,068m intangibles = $5,936m tangible asset value


Current market cap at 6.5p = £3.3m = $4.125m.


So PTBV (price to tangible book) = 0.69

and PBV (price to book value) = 0.59.

[joerog] 22/6/2020 17:27

What do you have net assets as? I only went by the last results and converted to £

[cjohn] 22/6/2020 17:22

You mean current price around 2/3rds net assets!


Annual turnover in recent years: $4-5m. Inventory: $3.59m. So v poor inventory turnover. Hasn't generated cash over last few years. Making a heavy loss. And dependent on lumpy large contracts from USAF et al.

If they did pull off some mega-contract, of course, share price would soar.

[joerog] 22/6/2020 16:57

Arthur: I had a look there but it doesn't seem to have anything recent - fancy getting it going again? What about SIM for starters? 3m market cap and cash of more than that with net assets around 2/3 times current price.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 20/6/2020 13:07

netcurtains

May I suggest that if you are becoming interested in buying stocks trading at a significant discount to Net Tangible Asset Value that you try Rainmaker's Value thread (VAL).

It's been very quiet in recent times but we could resurrect it.

Another one I suggest you take a look at is Titon (TON).

[diku] 18/6/2020 12:18

The impact of the lockdown is still to be felt...first half results will be key...






The impact of Covid-19 did not have a significant impact on the results for last financial year but it did require us to adjust all aspects of the Group's activities to operate on a fully remote basis. It is testament to the agility of our workforce and systems, combined with the willingness of our clients to entrust the ongoing delivery of their objectives to Triad, that most of our engagements have continued without interruption.

[diku] 18/6/2020 12:07

Somebody earlier said they didn't furloughed staff...wonder why?...over confident...

[weatherman] 18/6/2020 10:30

"The Group continued to recruit new consultants, and the Board has encouraged the pace of recruitment to increase. The management team is clear about the Group's direction to drive more profit through the use of permanent consultants and this financial year has seen significant effort go in to building for the future and not simply focusing on current utilisation rate."

In my view, it is worth holding on to see if there is growth from this low base.

[netcurtains] 18/6/2020 09:18

buywell3: Well done but you were totally wrong - you said the cash burn was big - In fact cash pile has gone up since December results.

cash at the end of September 2019: £2.96m

cash at the end of March 2020 £3.8m

the cash pile has risen by almost a million.

[buywell3] 18/6/2020 09:09

buywell3 - 10 Jun 2019 - 14:48:27 - 1402 of 1691 UNBELIEVABLE (IT software) !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! - TRD

If TRD perform like they did last year

I think dividends will take a hit/stop

Because it could go break-even like what I said last post

Government contracts .... whilst a couple of years ago looked ok

In today's messy political quagmire ... buywell gives this a thumbs down

I shan't be investing ... but thankyou

[netcurtains] 18/6/2020 09:03

currently Triads Market Cap is more or less the same as its cash pile!

Hopefully it will recover a lot over the coming months...

[arthur_lame_stocks] 18/6/2020 08:58

Yes results tolerably bad but they need to return to profit quickly otherwise that cash pile is going to disappear.

[cjohn] 18/6/2020 08:57

Hi England80,

"My understanding is that value realisation in some of the Japanese net nets is problematic due to the incestuous nature of some of the stocks due to interlinking ownership of companies."


Many Japanese companies, the net-nets are classic examples, maintain levels of cash and securities on the balance sheet which would be considered highly inefficient in an Occidental firm. This is a cultural difference that some Western investment houses are trying to change. (Good luck with that!). Likewise, interlocking shareholdings and directors does not bode well for corporate governance.

Certain precautions are clear:

-only invest in Japanese net-nets that are showing very marked declines from recent highs and absolute highs. This is true of a very good number currently.

- Pick net-nets with viable businesses over several years.

- You could also find net-nets with Western value houses as shareholders.

[cjohn] 18/6/2020 08:46

The results were tolerably bad, much as expected: A loss for the full year of £0.8m. Loss for the 2nd half of £0.4m

Other points worth highlighting:

- small positive net cash inflow from operations.

- net decrease in cash overall was £764k. Dividend paid was £479k. Given that the dividend has been eliminated and they are focusing on rapid cash collection, the current level of net cash may not go down that much over the coming months. (If volumes of business continue to drop there may be a net release of cash too.)

[netcurtains] 18/6/2020 07:51

Well four pluses from the results:

1. The cash pile has recovered somewhat from last six months (I guess they got paid for that contract that was delayed)... A cash pile of £3.8M is a lot for a company valued at just £5M..

2. They seem to have lots of work in various places within government.
3. They are expanding permanent head count quite fast (permanent workers tend to have bigger margin)
4. Work is good enough that no workers need be furloughed (better than a lot of firms)

[weatherman] 18/6/2020 07:48

So no e-o-y dividend. Results as per expectations.

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 22:10

WGB - Walter Greenback went up today. That was my stab at a net net...
Cheers Net!

[england80] 17/6/2020 21:51

Thanks CJohn/netcurtains

Every so often in my background reading on net nets the Japanese market is highlighted as fertile hunting ground. The language barrier puts me off, especially as reading the subtleties in the accounts is so important to making sure you’re not misunderstanding or falling into a value trap.

My understanding is that value realisation in some of the Japanese net nets is problematic due to the incestuous nature of some of the stocks due to interlinking ownership of companies. As you say CJohn, demanding a larger discount than normal mitigates that risk to some extent.

It’s more of a curiosity. I need to make sure I’m nailing my choices at home first.

Sorry for hijacking the thread in a completely random direction.

Lets see what the next set of results bring for TRD.

[cjohn] 17/6/2020 16:15

Hi england80,

Many private client brokers deal in Japan. But you need to check with each broker.

Interactive brokers is another option.

As for screening, stockopedia is an expensive option, but pretty good on the Far East.

You can find a very similar amount of information less attractively packaged at investing.com. You have to do more brainwork. (Not a bad thing that.)


Use of English on Japanese company websites varies from zero to total coverage - usually companies with a strong international presence. With the least-English friendly, you have to use translation machines and the coverage of screeners.

Given the difference in culture and occasional lacunae in what you know it makes sense to be more demanding in valuation in Japan.

Japanese stock markets in aggregate market cap are the second largest in the world after US, so it makes sense to really home in on what you're interested in.

Japan is indeed net-net world capital. Good hunting!

[netcurtains] 17/6/2020 16:04

england80: you could start with stuff like this: