Transense Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[fleet58] 21/12/2018 18:13

Many thanks Timbo, that sounds better already.

[timbo003] 21/12/2018 17:55

>>>>Peterblok

Yes, there were five PIs there, including three that frequent this thread



>>>>>Fleet

That question was not directly asked, but I think I can give an answer as the question came up in different guises

They suggested we read some of the recent announcements carefully, as the concluding words were very carefully chosen, so for example, compare the 2017 AGM statement with today's statement (cautious/cautiously is now absent)

2017: The board remain cautiously optimistic
2018: the Board look forward to 2019 with optimism



>>>>albert einstein

The question was not asked (the meeting commenced at 12 noon), but it is probably worth noting that about 3.2m shares voted in favour of the remuneration report and only around 4K shares voted against, so it looks like it is either not an issue for most shareholders, or there is a lot of shareholder apathy on the subject. It's worth noting that they are cutting costs elsewhere: they have now dispensed with the services of the PR agency (IFC), which would have been costing a significant five figure sum each year, also the investor evenings after the interims will be no more, due to lack of interest from investors.

I will try to write up a few notes over the weekend, but it may well take a bit longer (there were a lot of questions)

[peterblok] 21/12/2018 16:51

Ok - so did anyone actually go to the Meeting today?

[albert_einstein] 21/12/2018 12:57

Ask them how they justify their huge salaries based on the snail-like rate of progress and having to sell off part of the family silver just to survive.

[fleet58] 21/12/2018 11:45

Hi Timbo,

Can you please ask why is the announcement so flat given the improved position we believe we
are in.

Maybe it will be answered beforehand.

Thanks,

Fleet

[timbo003] 21/12/2018 11:09

I'll be at the AGM later. Any requests for questions?

[piggyinthemiddle] 21/12/2018 09:27

Judging by the reaction of the share price, the directors have shot themselves in the foot again!

[arthur_lame_stocks] 21/12/2018 08:37

My prediction is that Chris Mills and Criseren will push for this to be broken up and sold off while there is still some value left to realise. It can't be long before they are out of cash again.

[amt] 21/12/2018 08:20

Yes no wonder they are having AGM when few people likely to attend. Hope those who do will demand cost cutting on Directors salaries.

[piggyinthemiddle] 21/12/2018 08:04

Curiously downbeat statement,must admit I was expecting more.

[kenone] 21/12/2018 07:55

What a poor statement. Very little information. Must have taken all of 10 minutes to draft that . At least they remain 'optimistic'
Wish I was.

[amt] 21/12/2018 07:07

A woffly AGM statement saying they are optimistic. What else can they be. Still loosing money and burning cash. The board need to cut their fees or the worry is more funding will be needed to pay them. Its nearly 20 years since I first invested and still loosing money.

[piggyinthemiddle] 18/12/2018 20:27

yes,all to do with perspective :)

[sojourno] 18/12/2018 17:49

Mine is both large and small.

[dncleaver] 18/12/2018 12:16

My holding also used to be quite large! 😩

[piggyinthemiddle] 18/12/2018 09:17

Nothing to do with being stale,just realistic.There`s no monopoly about being a fan of TRT as can be seen by the absense of any significant selling by long term holders, most of whom have large holdings.

[mattjos] 17/12/2018 19:45

Good thing here is the consensus of stale investors is still overwhelmingly negative despite glimmers of evidence to the contrary.Other than a small amount of 'loose' shares swishing about, Criseren & Harwood have pretty much cleaned up anything else about ... any new buyers or a third II becoming interested is going to have to pay up from here.

[major courtenay] 17/12/2018 10:11

The rate of adoption is clearly too slow. However, one thing in our favour is that of the 8-10 remaining trials, a fair few of them are due to be reaching end stage in the next few months. (Assuming 18 month trial period) So a decision has to be made one way or the other in the near term. And if the management views of our latest customer are anything to go by, there is cause for a degree of optimism.

[piggyinthemiddle] 17/12/2018 09:24

If and when we supply the 100 extra units in Peru we will still be short by circa 180 units to break even.
Can`t see this happening quickly so projections for 2019 may be a tad optimistic.

[mattjos] 16/12/2018 21:32

Over 13.5% of this company is now in the hands of these two II's

Harwood Capital (400,000 shares 3.32%)

"Active Value" fund management involves identifying quoted companies that are trading at a discount to their underlying value. The investment strategy is based on a pro-active, event-driven investment style where shareholder value is maximised through specific re-structuring or financial re-engineering within an investee company.

Although the Harwood Capital team is usually the single driving force behind the restructuring of the business, they are sometimes joined by other shareholders who share a similar investment approach towards the prospects for the company in question."

Criseren Investments (1,241,258 shares 10.30%)

"We seek investments with:

- Excellent management team with the skills to manage both their existing business and future growth.
- An established product or service with a proven trading history and a clear competitive advantage.
- A service or product which has growth potential and that we can understand.
- Minimum debt.

Am sure they are both aware of the value / share of the carry forward tax losses on the books here & hence both see the margin of safety.

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 11:56

What seems to be afforded no value whatsoever here is all the data they are accumulating across their installed base.
This is growing all the time and will offer stats on comparative performance on various tyre OEM's both to TRT and to mine operators.

If management assertions that we have the best technical solution in the marketplace are correct, it seems only a matter of time before a larger entity expresses real interest in the company & its technology.

This still looks much too cheaply valued at just £6.7m

[mattjos] 15/12/2018 11:39

From the Interim Results back in Feb 18:

"iTrack now live on 340 trucks + 70 pending installation"

Those 340 truck installs were split "OPEX 54% & CAPEX 46% … that equates to 183 trucks on Subscription basis and 157 outright purchase.

They also advised:

- Model moving towards Opex only - customer lead
- Variable terms but typically 3 years+
- Break even EBITDA target at current level circa 580 rentals
- Further recurring revenue from analytics upsell with customers who opt in

From the Final results statement for the Full Year ending 30th June 18:

"Commercialisation of iTrack II has seen steady progress throughout the year, with the system live on a substantial number of trucks at the year end and covering eight mines in three continents. This generated a threefold increase in monthly subscription service income since the start of the financial year.

At the end of the year there were active prospects with realistic expectations of success at a further ten sites"

1st August 2018 Trading Update:

"Growth in the financial year, in the rental income, from large mining haul trucks using Translogik's iTrack tyre monitoring system has resulted in the Group commencing the new financial year with monthly recurring operating lease rental revenue at 1 July 2018 being over 200 per cent. higher than at 1 July 2017.

The Group closed the year with cash of GBP1.6m and no debt."


The Contract win RNS on 12th November advised:

"....has won a contract to supply 24 iTrack II mining tyre monitoring systems including the full suite of Data Analytics for large haul trucks at Southern Copper's Cuajone mine in Peru.
These systems are to be supplied on a subscription model basis..."

& the customer advised at the time:

"The system will initially be installed on our Cat 797F Haul Truck fleet however, we expect iTrack will subsequently be rolled out to our extended fleet in Peru which amounts to a further 100 trucks."

I would suggest they now have at least 277 trucks on the Subscription (OPEX) model and 157 trucks where customer has purchased the system outright.

If Southern Copper go on to install across their wider fleet in Peru, that would take the number of units on Subscription model to 377 trucks.

I assume low-volume incremental orders from existing customers are not RNS'd.

Looks quite realistic that 2019 will see them reach break-even EBITDA.

There are currently 12,048,948 shares in issue and "The Company has UK tax losses available to carry forward at 30 June 2018 of approximately GBP19.8m"

£19,800,000 / 12,048,948 = £1.64 / share of carry forward tax losses.

Once break-even is achieved and then the company moves into profit, this £1.64 figure has a far more tangible value than it does now.
I believe it will, at some point in 2019, become the minimum value for the equity valuation & on that basis I do see there being an attractive margin of safety when buying today at circa 30% of that figure.

[drw1] 13/12/2018 10:19

Hopefully the AGM next week will confirm continued progress.

.The strength of our product offering and the iTrack brand reputation has resulted in Translogik moving from "opportunities to work more closely with selected partners" as stated in the interim report to the current state of play whereby we are holding discussions on collaborative arrangements with major global companies in this sector.

[mattjos] 13/12/2018 10:07

Tight again

[sojourno] 10/12/2018 14:48

Oh, and there's most likely a large economic slump coming.