Transense Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[dncleaver] 13/11/2018 20:27

Yes, it's Mattjos!

[merckx2] 13/11/2018 19:40

Sorry to keep banging on about it, but it’s not Criseren or Harwood that are buying. They both need very few shares to cross a 1% hurdle which would trigger an RNS and there hasn’t been one, so there must be another buyer(s).

[sojourno] 13/11/2018 19:34

Fram a technical/psychological/fundamental POV all I can do is take a leaf out of Seth Klarman's book and consider that Value Investing is really about taking advantage of the madness of crowds and focusing on fundamental value.
We're bouncing off the lower reaches of Fibonacci-rebased-to-zero bands; which fit very well and in essence indicate that the crowds don't think we're out of the woods yet. We need to get well above the Split level before they do; but this is where Value Investing lives.

[mattjos] 13/11/2018 16:29

i am .. you can sit or watch or you can take up the stock.
I'm firmly of the opinion that we have finally now got a self-sustaining business.
This latest contract is a terrific one to win and that customer has a helluva lot of haul trucks.

Josue Vilchez, General Chief Mine Operation, said: "We have conducted extensive trials over the course of the last 18 months with all of the current market leading systems and we have concluded that iTrack is the best TPMS system in the mining environment available."

That is not a glib statement by such a large company. Management and the PR company of Southern Copper would have had to ok that statement.
This is very significant third-party validation of the iTrack system & we are in the position now to be able to completely dominate this sector going forward.
I am pretty confident that the flood gates will now open and new orders will come in much quicker and in growing volumes

[dncleaver] 13/11/2018 14:14

Mattjos: "Not possible to buy" .... Try offering more money! 😜

[drw1] 13/11/2018 12:10

''The Board continues to believe that the technology and products developed by the Group along with the services provided in the mining sector ensure that the Group is extremely well positioned in all key areas of the businesses and as a result the current level of optimism for future prospects is at a high level."

[major courtenay] 13/11/2018 11:52

I’m in two minds here. It’s either the same old same old, the excitement will subside over the next week or so and price will begin its slow drift back down over the coming months.... or.... those dozen or so trial periods which have been chugging away for the last year - 18 months will come home to roost with a side order of break even followed by dessert of expanding mainstream industrial uptake. I’m leaning towards the former today I’m afraid. Whatever happened to diesel Taylor? Did he sell up?

[mattjos] 13/11/2018 10:51

Not possible to buy

[dncleaver] 13/11/2018 10:51

I'm willing to bet that they didn't develop that system, either. It will simply be yet another bolt-on job from a third-party manufacturer.

But I do feel like we are missing a trick here, especially since Caterpillar have obviously realised that TPMS is a good sales feature.

[sojourno] 13/11/2018 10:31

Correction.
They already do.
(May 2017)
5 minute warm-up, no auto-detection, no telematics.
...Obviously not good enough!

[dncleaver] 13/11/2018 08:56

"Might Caterpillar develop and supply their own system?"

.... Why would they do that? Caterpillar build trucks!

[sojourno] 13/11/2018 08:39

Might take them a while. Ours could repackaged seasonally if required.

[glavey] 13/11/2018 01:17

"...surely, at some point in time they are going to have a conversation with Transense about the system being offered via CAT themselves..."

Might Caterpillar develop and supply their own system?

[mattjos] 12/11/2018 12:58

Southern Copper is very significant operation.
This contract is for Cuajone mine:
"....The system will initially be installed on our Cat 797F Haul Truck fleet however, we expect iTrack will subsequently be rolled out to our extended fleet in Peru which amounts to a further 100 trucks."

The neighbouring Toquepala copper mine looks even bigger:

[timbo003] 12/11/2018 12:15

It sounds like they may be now charging for the data analytics (otherwise why mention it?), as I recall they were not doing so at the time of launch. Furthermore, I seem to remember that the amount they would charge would not be dissimilar to the amount they charge for leasing the probes (circa $6k/probe/year), so there is a potential for doubling the revenue if all customers take up the data analytics.

The time of the last investor evening (March 2017) this was not taken into account in any of the analyst's projections for future revenue

See my notes from the March 2017 meeting

[major courtenay] 12/11/2018 12:02

By my reckoning in the last 12 months there have been three iTrack deals: Cerro Colorado for BHP, the Nordgold mine in Burkina Faso and now the latest in Peru. After all this time the takeup rate is just too slow.

[mattjos] 12/11/2018 10:24

certainly did not warrant going red on that RNS. Snagged a few more

[sojourno] 12/11/2018 09:57

Good stuff.
100 trucks will help a lot.
More to come before too long I hope.

[mattjos] 12/11/2018 09:32

the company can influence some element of control with regards rate of rollout and cash in-hand during these sort of contracts.
Slow process getting the system adopted.

CAT 797F costs about $3.5m and each tyre is over $50,000. The operator is going to want to make sure they fit the best possible system & we have been confirmed as the best during their trials.
At some point, these companies are going to have enough internal data & managment awareness to be able to make a decision without these extensive trials.
We must be getting close to that point now.

CAT must be aware of this system now & see it being fitted .... surely, at some point in time they are going to have a conversation with Transense about the system being offered via CAT themselves as an option at the time the truck is manufactured. Equally, Transense must have had some dialogue with CAT already in order to connect in to the CANBUS system on the truck & not invalidate the OEM Warranty.
Unclear how any tie-up would influence the Transense business model but, 'official' OEM validation of their system would be a very significant step forward

[wynterwilde] 12/11/2018 08:50

A subscription model has to be the best bet for this aspect of the company. The RNS states that on a bought system the payback is a few months.....so why sell the system when a subscription lasts for years!
Hard on cashflow, maybe, but the initial rentals are coming in now and revenue will increase, albeit slowly.

[drw1] 12/11/2018 08:13

Gaining acceptance of a new product in any industry takes time.
Given the increasing evidence of the superiority of the Itrack system 'lift-off'must surely come.
Will be interesting to see if the discussions with 'potential' partners come to fruition.