Trans-siberian Gold Share Discussion Threads

[fuiseog] 29/1/2008 10:23

SP up yesterday, and a further 10% this morning but no RNS. Is there a leak on news of assay results?

[nobull] 29/1/2008 09:23

50p on a successful financing announcement, I wonder? Fingers crossed. If CMR can raise finance surely TSG can.

[nobull] 22/1/2008 14:06

Well I guess our financing costs have increased now. With plenty of interest rate cuts to come, I just can't think what our board is doing dithering over getting the finance sorted: the pound will go down against the currencies of our suppliers, and now with stock markets falling the dilution is ghastly. Come on TSG, get a move on. And what about our bleeding drill results?

[nobull] 21/1/2008 10:15

Xiaonike, thanks for that. Seymour Pierce may as well not bother for all the good it does. Down again today to another new low? No re-rating until we get news I fear.

[nobull] 16/1/2008 16:58

Down 0.75p to 23p middle on two "sales", although the later transaction might be a buy at mid price. These shares should be £1.50. All that is required is
1. Announcement of the Rodnikova drill results (now 6 weeks late)
2. Announcement that finance has been raised on reasonbable terms to complete the mine.
3. Start production of gold in a timely manner (produce 1,000 Kgs before 31.12.08).

Roll on a bid for the company.

Trades for 16-Jan-2008
Time Volume / Share Price
12:35 10,000 @ 23.00p
11:39 7,500 @ 22.75p

[nobull] 27/12/2007 10:44

Another worry with this stock is that all those shareholders who bought in at much higher prices will be jockeying to get in on any deeply discounted placing to shaft the shareholders who got in more cheaply recently. I expect that is what all the talk of usurping power is about: the right to decide who gets in on any deeply discounted placing, that is, if we don't go bust first.

[xiaonike] 18/12/2007 12:11

That was presumably Katerina Parker then - the office manager in Cambridge. I had just wondered whether you had spoken to someone higher up such as Bagirov or Olsen.

I agree the credit crunch hasn't done us any favours but hopefully it's negative impact will have been somewhat ameliorated by the increase in the price of gold.

By the way, I see that Burnell has just resigned and Doumnov has taken his place. I'll be shedding no tears at the departure but I wonder whether Doumnov is a UFG stooge.

From the July AGM notice:
Mr Doumnov's appointment is recommended by a majority of the Board as it is
considered that his 9.9% shareholding in, and directorship of, OAO Sibirskiy
Gorno-Metallurgichesky Alyans (SiGMA), a gold focussed exploration company
controlled by UFG, with assets held in the Kamchatka peninsula in Far East
Russia, should not affect the exercise of his independent judgement. Three of
TSG's directors, including its CEO, are also directors of SiGMA.

As far as I know he received the backing of both UFG and AGA when voting for the non-execs took place but did not have the support of Burnell and Bowring.

Is this the 'plotting to usurp power' that was spoken about in the summer and even if it is will it do shareholders any harm?

[nobull] 18/12/2007 06:02

Hi xiaonike,
Sorry, my password for posting on TMF is in an email on a hard disk I dropped. (I'll retrieve the data one day, hopefully). I spoke to a lady who guessed my beef straight away. She said she HOPED the drill results would be good to get the share price up. (I hadn't mentioned anything about the share price - well, not on this occasion!). January was the suggested date for the drill results because they are closed over Xmas, and that was based on conversations she had overheard. On funding she descended into polite "I don't want to discuss this" mode. So I guess we will have heard by April whether we are a going concern or not. I didn't ask about anything else. (There isn't anything else of significance to ask about?). Of course other companies give more frequent operational updates, but this company probably needs to save money on shareholder communication. Continuing to hold my 55k despite the presumed worsening conditions for funding since the start of the credit crunch.

[xiaonike] 18/12/2007 03:54

hello nobull,

Well done for ringing up. Who did you speak to at TSG?

In the recent interims they had funding "until the beginning of the second quarter of 2008" and so if that hasn't changed the well will run dry in early April.

A slight delay in the assay for Rodnikova shouldn't be a problem.

[nobull] 17/12/2007 14:59

Rodnikova drill results are not coming out, as suggested in the interim report, by December apparently. Hopefully January. News on financing... they are not saying anything of course. I recall they will run out of money in March 2008. They are closed for Xmas. Info was ascertained as a result of phoning them today. I presume if the funding risk goes bad, the permitting risk will go bad (intolerable delays in funding will result in the mining licence being revoked) and the mine would then end up being transfered to a Russian oligarch at a fire sale price, resulting in us not being a going concern anymore. And the directors? They don't need to buy TSG shares, do they? They have their options with the new lower exercise price, should the share price go up! I should have bought Aurum mining instead (production just 6 months away and fully funded.

[nobull] 06/12/2007 00:47

Ali G, Yes, I hope so. Just want the Rodnikova drill results now (due any day now?) and an announcement on funding. The money runs out in March I believe, so funding announcement can't be too far away. Continuing to hold (55k).

Off topic. Penny9, thanks for the PET info. I am new to oilers, but have recently bought FRR (68p I think I paid) and PTR (33.75p? I paid, but is now 28p). FRR could go to zero or to £25. I'll be happy with £7. It is part an exploration play (£50m company trying to prove up 1 bn barrels in the Kura basin in Georgia in the less promising Cretaceous carbonate interval) and part development play (100 m barrels that refuse to come out: sediment problems and low permeability reservoirs). Not had time to read about PET, Iraq and John Tealing, and I am keen on Iran (no not Tealing's PNG but the largest undeveloped zinc mine in the world, Mehdiabad, "part owned" (i.e. before a dispute) by URL. Good luck with PET.

[ali g2] 05/12/2007 11:17

Something happening at long last!

[penny9] 17/10/2007 20:15

nobull/xiaonike
Thanks for that, I do not ramp shares but have owned PET for four years You could have a look for nothing the HCL is about to be passed I believe.
P9

[nobull] 15/10/2007 14:44

Xiaonike, to cut along story short I can't access my TMF password temporarily. Agree your comparison with HGM stands. Sorry, yes, I am guilty of nitpicking a good post you made. Agreed one possible outcome is share price of zero for TSG, more so than for many other companies (single project company is bad enough, and in Russia makes it worse!). Continuing to hold. Will post on TMF as soon as Hewlett Packard return my computer with my TMF password. Sorry for the delay acknowledging your post. Regards.

P9. There are big risks with this stock. Good luck if you choose to invest in it.
Would recommend reading the TMF posts on this stock too, if you are seriously interested in it. TSG like all mining exploration/ mine development stocks is not suitable at all for a lot of investors, and it is easy to be mesmerised by attractive maths calculations that appear to show you are going to be rich. I would seek independent advice from someone who is not long of this stock before even considering it. Regards.

[penny9] 14/10/2007 21:12

nobull/xiaonike
Have read through your posts with great interest,thankyou for been so informative. After ten years still finding my way around
Kind regards
P9

[xiaonike] 08/10/2007 12:16

Look forward to seeing you on TMF nobull!

For what it's worth when I enquired about attending the AGM the person I spoke to at TSG made it clear that because my shares are in a nominee account I wouldn't be getting in without a Letter of Representation. Owing to the fact that I have a lethargic broker that effectively barred me from attending.

I know of one other poster on TMF didn't attend for this reason and doubtless there were others who would have increased the shareholder count given the opportunity.

Under the circumstances I can understand the board's caution though.

regards

[nobull] 07/10/2007 16:46

Many thanks for your very well documented post, Xiaonike. All interesting and highly relevant. Will post on the TMF board then in future when I get around to registering. Suspect I sat next to Alliedasset at the AGM. Think I've now worked out who everybody else was there now (except for one shareholder), including even the identity of the man who drafted the "on track for production for no date" RNS. Excluding auditors, company solicitor, nomad, registrars, the RNS drafter (from Bankside Consultants) and the directors themselves, it appears only 4 shareholders turned up! Roll on the drill results from Rodnikova and the final funding announcement!
Regards.

[xiaonike] 06/10/2007 05:20

Maybe Mitvol isn't so bad after all?

I've just posted this on TMF:

Things are also looking a little more promising on the license front in light of Oleg Mitvol's recent greet and meet in the U.S.

See the following from September 10 -

Meanwhile, Oleg Mitvol says that he did not mean to scare out investors. Quite on the contrary, he encouraged them to invest in Russia. He said he had "told them about political stability and development for the next 25 years in Russia." He also explained "how licenses are issued, how to apply for renewal, what the State Commission for Reserves is and why there is a difference in estimations of reserves." "We handed out contact information and addresses of the State Commission for Reserves and the ministry to help companies verify any information," the deputy administrator of the environmental agency told Kommersant.

Following that notably non-confrontational statement we've had Highland Gold release interim results on September 24 -

in which they said: The Mayskoye license extension process is ongoing and we are hopeful that the process will be concluded positively within the next two months. All required documentation and support letters from the Chukotka Deputy Governor were submitted.

So they are displaying similar optimism to TSG and it will be interesting to keep an eye on whether they do get the license sorted out in November.

Furthermore, Peter Hambro seem to have sorted out all their problems with Mitvol and are very optimistic for the future in Russia.

From the FT on September 24 -

Mr Mitvol has been an outspoken critic of mining and oil companies operating in Russia, but following inspections of Peter Hambro Mining's mines, he concluded that there was no need to revoke any of the company's licences.

and The Moscow Times from October 4 -

Peter Hambro, CEO of London-listed Peter Hambro Mining, said Wednesday that the company's difficulties with the Natural Resources Ministry's environmental agency were now behind it and that the current investment climate in Russia was the most favorable that it had ever been.
"When you remove uncertainty, the investment climate prospects [improve]," Hambro said on the sidelines of a mining seminar, alluding to President Vladimir Putin's comments that he may become prime minister next year.

Rose tinted regards,

xiaonike

[nobull] 28/9/2007 12:40

Xiaonike, many thanks for that. Yes, I have vaguely followed the HGM saga. And yes we have already had one (or possibly two?) licence extensions already. And it is possible greed has got the better of me. 28p to say £1.52 between now and July 2009 = a (compound ?) rate return of about 8% a month? 28p x 1.08 to the power of 22 = £1.52? so I guess that has dulled my brain to careful consideration of what Mr M might do the licence! We'll see. Regards.

[xiaonike] 28/9/2007 01:09

Nobull,

To have mined 40,000 tonnes of ore is not 'production' in anyone's book - not yours, not mine, by their own admission not TSG's and certainly not Rosprirodnadzor's.

I'm sure the board have not intentionally flouted the license conditions and my previous post was admittedly badly worded. It would have been better to say that 'they have no expectation of satisfying the license requirements'. The board are doubtless as well intentioned as they are sincere but I would prefer them to be bad guys who get things done than good guys who don't.

The AGM statement was worded as follows:

Mr Oleg Bagirov, chief executive, reported to shareholders that the Company 'was now on track' to produce gold at its Asacha project in Kamchatka, far east Russia.

As you say there was no mention of dates and in fact it is a wishy woshy statement that could have been at any point since they first acquired the license.

Finally, the board member who said that any company that was in production had ever lost its licence was evidently being somewhat disingenuous given that, as we have established, TSG are not going to be in production when the Asacha license expires.

As well as TSG the following mining companies have at some point or another received attention from Mr Mitvol.

Ovoca Gold (OVG) at Goltsovoye
Highland Gold (HGM) at Mayskoye
Peter Hambro Mining (PHM) at Toupugol-Khanmeishorkaya
Bema Gold (Kinross Gold Corporation) (NYSE: KGC) at Kupol
Celtic Resources (CER) at Tominskoye

I haven't looked into any of these any further but I recall that HGM were having problems with Mitvol simply because they applied for an extension to their license.

[nobull] 27/9/2007 15:31

Xioanike, thanks for that. Sorry I've perhaps done down one of the directors when I reported the difficulties of actually getting to Asacha in winter. I think that he was really trying to convince me that things were never that black and white in Russia, and I think that he was trying to make me see how ridiculous my thinking was if there was some minor shortfall in production by the target/deadline date. Still, it was said that as long as we were in production by the deadline, that that was the thing that mattered. To have mined 40,000 tonnes of ore by that date is not my idea of being in "production", so maybe I should contact them again. I don't think there was any intention on the part of the directors to deliberately flout the licence conditions. The timetable just seems to be slipping badly (not even the market believed the previous RNS that said we were "on track": it failed to mention any production date?) and after that the shares continued their descent, rightly IMO. Another Board member said he didn't think any company that was in production had ever lost its licence (in Russia), and after he said that he did try hard to think of one, but couldn't. I presume it is true many Russian companies don't meet all the licence requirements. Agreed Mr. M. does sound a drastic fellow. Fingers crossed. If asked again, I shall not vote to extend the share option scheme for another year in the light of the latest delay (but happy to make an exception in the case of O.B.)