Trafalgar Property Share Discussion Threads

[xcap] 04/5/2017 16:26

griz 1032: Best move fast though as the Johnson family will likely delist from AIM in order to save money.


I/they must be fools griz because surely



commercial logic would suggest that the Johnson's would have made a bid last year when everything with the company's property development's was going wrong and the mcap was was about £1.5m (early 2016).

the mcap is now nearly £2.4m and with the developments currently in the pipeline could easily race away to well over £15m (see my analysis in previous post)

What's your motive/thinking for saying what you have - just interested.

[grlz] 03/5/2017 20:00

gl with ur pump 'n dump - I wondered after those few million shares where purchased a few weeks ago when the ramping would begin....

Best move fast though as the Johnson family will likely delist from AIM in order to save money..

..I suppose pulling the plug during a pump + dump could be tempting. Forced seller dumping quick would give a controlling shareholder an opportunity to take a company private on the cheap.

[xcap] 03/5/2017 17:11

I am sticking to my analysis post 1021

my analysis of the 2017/18 GDV is around £10m

thats from the following developments complete or will be by Q3, , so takes no account of anything in the pipeline for Q4. But given slippages lets say the below is what is built and sold in YE 31 March 2018.

- Burnside GDV £2.4m
- Edenbridge £1.065m
- Hildenborough £1.8m
- Speldhurst (say) £1m (luxury Ex Home)
- Sherness (say) £3.9m (6 x luxury Apartments)

Have I missed ANY developments??

Total say £10m

I know Developers are working on at least 25%-30% net margins including all finance costs but before Plc overheads (but lets take 25%)

that should equate to £2.5m

the YE 31.12.2016 accounts show Admin (GA) costs of £279,000 so lets say 2017/18 is £300000

that should give a net profit of £2.2m for YE 2018

2.2m/238m shares = .92p eps x a conservative 8 years forward earnings = 7.5p
(normal 10 x earnings for the sector gives of course 10p).

Property developers work on pipeline and TRAF are working to get 24 units through planning presently (per last RNS). If this comes through and we assume they will be 24 apartments (a mix of 1, 2 and 3 beds) with a av price of £400,000 = £9.6m. This will come through in the YE 2019 (possibly by H1 of YE 2019 which would be brilliant. And of course in between now and then TRAF will be working on more schemes, and land banking, which means a strengthening balance sheet from which TRAF can leverage borrowings to start more developments.

Erring on the side of caution I can see TRAF building a pipeline of GDV sales of

YE 2018 £10m-£12m
YE 2019 £15m
YE 2020 £20m

at £20m the GP could be £5m (to £6m) and net profits coming through at £4.5m. This takes the eps to 15p (using the same basis as above).

2015 and 2016 have thrown TRAF off track with planning issues etc, but this is a turnaround story with big potential. And CEO owns 75% which means he is very well aligned and incentivised to succeed. At 15p his holding is £28m. Says it all.

[barnetpeter] 03/5/2017 16:45

Yes xcap that's the one. Worth many millions if they do get agreement. Amazing to think I got nearly 8 p on this stock shortly after the launch. Went up every day for weeks....or it seemed like it. Sold the lot ...bought them all back now.

[billbyrne] 03/5/2017 16:35

I think the increased volume could be due to the fact the penthouse
at Burnside Court has been reserved. It had a guide price of £600,000

[xcap] 03/5/2017 12:08

barnet - is 'the big site' the one they are trying to get planning for 24 units?
do you/anyone know the Local Authority? we can check the website for updates and the scheme submitted.

you have been in from the beginning it seems, just started reading the history - your post 18 is interesting.

[barnetpeter] 03/5/2017 12:03

Some decent 500K buys over the last two days....only has a small free float. Now if they finally get permission for this big site they have then a big rally.

[cheshire man] 03/5/2017 10:46

Some movement here on small volume, took a few to tuck away on the Feb. update,,,,,confident it will come good over the next year or two :-) DYOR

[xcap] 31/3/2017 22:50

Barnet The year after is already looking promising with a planning application for 24 units pending That alone could have a GDV in excess of £12m based on 24 x 2 bed flats at £500,000. Throw in a couple more developments of 2 x 2 luxury detached houses and 6 x 2 bed houses , which seems to be the mix of developments TRAF prefer, you are suddenly looking at a potential gross revenue of circa £20m

[barnetpeter] 31/3/2017 18:39

Millions in revenue due in the next financial year and prob tax free because of previous losses.

[xcap] 31/3/2017 07:31

Good trading updateSignificant year for TRAF, with massive revenues and profits coming through and the build up of important construction of new build pipeline Great turnaround story unfolding

[xcap] 17/3/2017 10:28

barnet

my analysis of the 2017/18 GDV is around £10m

thats from the following developments complete or will be by Q3, , so takes no account of anything in the pipeline for Q4. But given slippages lets say the below is what is built and sold in YE 31 March 2018.

- Burnside GDV £2.4m
- Edenbridge £1.065m
- Hildenborough £1.8m
- Speldhurst (say) £1m (luxury Ex Home)
- Sherness (say) £3.9m (6 x luxury Apartments)

Have I missed ANY developments??

Total say £10m

I know Developers are working on at least 25%-30% net margins including all finance costs but before Plc overheads (but lets take 25%)

that should equate to £2.5m

the YE 31.12.2016 accounts show Admin (GA) costs of £279,000 so lets say 2017/18 is £300000

that should give a net profit of £2.2m for YE 2018

2.2m/238m shares = .92p eps x a conservative 8 years forward earnings = 7.5p
(normal 10 x earnings for the sector gives of course 10p).

Property developers work on pipeline and TRAF are working to get 24 units through planning presently (per last RNS). If this comes through and we assume they will be 24 apartments (a mix of 1, 2 and 3 beds) with a av price of £400,000 = £9.6m. This will come through in the YE 2019 (possibly by H1 of YE 2019 which would be brilliant. And of course in between now and then TRAF will be working on more schemes, and land banking, which means a strengthening balance sheet from which TRAF can leverage borrowings to start more developments.

Erring on the side of caution I can see TRAF building a pipeline of GDV sales of

YE 2018 £10m-£12m
YE 2019 £15m
YE 2020 £20m

at £20m the GP could be £5m (to £6m) and net profits coming through at £4.5m. This takes the eps to 15p (using the same basis as above).

2015 and 2016 have thrown TRAF off track with planning issues etc, but this is a turnaround story with big potential. And CEO owns 75% which means he is very well aligned and incentivised to succeed. At 15p his holding is £28m. Says it all.

[barnetpeter] 28/2/2017 14:08

500K buy today and a few buys.

[xcap] 28/2/2017 14:02

any further thoughts Barnet

[barnetpeter] 22/2/2017 12:20

Interesting update today. Delay in completion and selling some props but not too long. Just look at the amounts involved though...millions of income and new application for planning soon for the 24 house site. Buyers coming in at this low mkt cap

[big bear billy] 17/8/2016 09:29

0.4p today?

[grlz] 09/8/2016 13:48

My two cents. c.£200K profit this year. £900K next ;)

1.3/1.6 bid/offer tomorrow and the usual MM games

By the interim results in 6 months it will be 3-4p which is undervalued imho

Why ambitous? TRAF has 4 developments on the go with pipeline and landbank, though the share price currently trades lower than when the company was only building a single site at Oakhurst Park.

Obviously TRAFs funders and suppliers consider the problems suffered on Oakhurst history as TRAF pushes profitably forward.

4p still a bargain for a pure south east based housebuilder

[hope67] 09/8/2016 12:43

So results tomorrow what is everyone expecting?

[kmann] 05/8/2016 15:03

Sends out a secure message for potentioal buyers imo

Interest rates could be cut AGAIN and get even closer to zero before the end of the year as taxpayer-backed banks wait to pass on the drop to 0.25%

[kmann] 04/8/2016 13:04

Markets liking the Carney move, lower rates for longer, just the job for builders and the housing sector. Good for another year+ imo. That gives a SOLID ground for recovery AND growth. SUPERB!

BUY 3p

[kmann] 27/7/2016 15:11

Business as usual for Builders. All up today on strong demand.

3-5p target here.

[kmann] 18/7/2016 08:06

Looks like good news imo.

Top info knows nothing here .. trust me!

[runwaypaul] 17/7/2016 17:16

topinfo pump Friday afternoon caused the buying.

[kmann] 17/7/2016 15:38

.
chart looks good, all lined up for a sustained rise imo



free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

Last time i contacted Chris at TRAF they sounded very confident.