Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[grahamg8] 20/5/2014 07:40

NAV is approximately 30pps before distribution against an share price of 14p. Post distribution we have NAV 22pps and an share price of perhaps 6p. That's a huge discount even taking into account the stated difficulty of turning assets into cash. Scope for some immediate upside?

[grahamg8] 02/4/2014 16:56

Back in but with a lower investment than before, at least for the time being. News of cash distribution to come within the next two months should be positive in the short term. The RNS hints at some sale progress soon. But I don't like the way the asset value for each investment is hidden from us, so I'm being rather cautious for now.

[jaws6] 25/3/2014 08:24

RNS and some tender to come

[praipus] 10/3/2014 16:44

Thanks Stockonomist good info, CARB/P ETF'S rising too.

[stockonomist] 10/3/2014 11:34

It could be a win win for both parties whoever the counterparties are.

TRE get some certainty on Liability position. Acquirer gets some potential liabilities but also any future upside should there be any.

[praipus] 10/3/2014 11:24

Is selling the CDM port for nothing a good deal? Freeing TRE of liabilities?

[gingerplant] 05/11/2013 11:57

Thanks Nick. In AURR's case, the cash exceeds the mkt cap - so there's a good degree of downside protection and they have a good track record despite the Russian connection!

Also - your namesake holds >3%.

[skyship] 05/11/2013 11:37

David - you may well be right on this one and on AURR; I'm just not enamoured by the assets. Also, the stock price in both cases seems to speak volumes. Both are constantly tipped by Simon Thompson; but both are languishing under sales by parties who demonstrably know more...

I may be totally mis-reading the situation; but prefer not to hold where there are nagging doubts.

19.0p looks like a very nice exit price - the same level as the ST inspired spike back in early September.

[gingerplant] 05/11/2013 11:28

Thanks Nick - but why do you say that? Don't you think it's worth >20p?

[skyship] 05/11/2013 11:13

David - you can almost set your watch by Simon Thompson - today he's returned for yet another tip in IC online. Right to sell into short-term strength IMO.

[gingerplant] 01/11/2013 18:05

Well IMO, it's worth more than 22p - but I'd be happy to sell at that price as the discount will be more reasonable and I bought at an average 15.5p.

It's a similar situation at AURR another Simon T tip that has underperformed but where the shares are roughly equal to cash so the investments are in the price for nothing. I hold both - and they're at numbers 10 and 11 on my overall investments list.

Cheers GP

[cousin jack] 01/11/2013 17:43

Ah yes....I didn't read the original posting properly. Not the first time my speed reading has led me to get the wrong end of the stick.

Let's see if there is a mention in ST's Monday column in the ic.

[grahamg8] 01/11/2013 17:37

Ginger sounds like you might be a glass half empty sort of person. Now how about the share price target? You say 22p which sounds reasonable. There was a spike to just above 20p recently so with a bit more clarity then a slight move above this could be on the cards. My longer term target was 24p but I've just reviewed it and came up with a figure of 23p. Let's just say in the low 20's and see how we go in the coming days and weeks.

[gingerplant] 01/11/2013 16:23

It isn't that I wasn't employing deliberately a double negative but it's fair to say that I definitely don't expect the price not to rise from here and I don't think Simon Thompson won't update - nor do I think that update won't be negative! I can't see it not being :-)

[grahamg8] 01/11/2013 12:50

Cousin Jack, the answer lies in the double negative: I can't imagine .... the update won't .... ie I can imagine the update will.... So Ginger expects Simon Thompson to give a buy recommendation. We shall see. Funny thing this English language, init?

[cousin jack] 01/11/2013 09:56

Ginger
If as you say an update won't be a buy recommendation why will this give a bit if a fillip to the share price? Surely the reverse applies !

[gingerplant] 01/11/2013 09:16

Agreed grahamg8. I think patient investors will be rewarded with anywhere between 50-90% from here, though I'll be happy to sell around 22p.

I can't imagine the IC's Simon Thompson won't update today / Monday - nor can I imagine that update won't be a further buy recommendation which will probably give the share price a bit of a fillip, but this is complete guesswork.

[grahamg8] 01/11/2013 09:06

I agree GingerPlant and have bought back in. EEA managers costs had become unacceptably high but has now been addressed. I anticipate today the cash is 6.1pps and PEI 22.8pps. July cash distribution allowed for in 2012/13 and also Bionasa was written down at 30 June; so no major adjustments needed. ie a lot of guess work has been taken away. This was the reason why I sold out in September (and a decent exit price as well). Buoyed up by last years disposals which if my calc is correct meant £25m realised at £1.6m above book. So the big debate has to be how fast and how close to book will the remaining disposals take place. Encouraging noises in the results and so that's why I've bought today.

[gingerplant] 01/11/2013 07:28

NAV just over 30pps, but "The Directors estimate that at the end of June 2013, the comparable fair value of the private equity portfolio was GBP 62.2 million, 9% more as compared with the book value" which adds around 2.2p to NAV in practice.

This is much too large a discount, IMO, given TRE's track record in realisations and giving us back the cash - and their complete candour re Bionasa (about which they remain hopeful of a turnaround but which has been written down).

[spob] 20/9/2013 13:46

16.5P .... Current book value excluding Bionasa around 27-28P

!

[spob] 20/9/2013 12:51

if Bionasa was written down to zero

TRE would still be trading 40% below book at the current price

i guess i shouldn't really say that on here, as i'm waiting to buy more

[azalea] 20/9/2013 10:38

Bit of a bummer, but hopefuly not a disaster. You win some, you loose some.

[grahamg8] 20/9/2013 07:59

The investment of 125m Reals is worth £35.34m at todays exchange rate or about 14.3pps. I can't find any reference to any prior writedowns. If that is true then the share price might have to drop to sub 6p. Fireworks this morning?