Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[wormcatcher] 17/6/2008 08:23

If you were a cynic then one might say that this was a well worked exit strategy by Mr Eckert (does he also hold shares in Econergy?)

[asparks] 13/6/2008 09:30

see ECG news! RNS out

[jiopl] 08/6/2008 09:54

Hi you probably saw that the Leiberman Warner bill did not get through which is bad news for 2012 CERs but I think things still look positive for carbon prices going forward and TRE is undervalued.

According to PointCarbon the Massachusetts emission program will allow the use of EUAs and CERs.


Climate Corporation say there is a growing correlation between carbon and energy prices.


Interesting press release from NewCarbonfinance here.
Fundamentals point to higher carbon prices.

"Our central price forecast has been revised upwards over the last month on the back of further delays in issuances of Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) supply and continued increases in gas prices."


The results from the International Emissions Trading Associations third market sentiment survey seem fairly positive.

"The market is also optimistic about future price
levels. Half of our respondents believe that
EUA prices would be in the range of €25 – 35
in the period to 2012; while 29% believe it will
be in the region of €20 – 25. Expectations for
the period post-2012 were more bullish. Nearly
half (47%) believe EUA prices will rise beyond
€35.

Expectations for prices are still fairly positive.
About 44% of market respondents believe that
the average secondary CER price would be in
the range of €15 – 20, while a further 29%
believe it will increase to €20 – 25 in the period
to 2012. 8% believe that prices would go
beyond €25 by 2012.
Over the longer term, the majority expect to
see CER prices moving above €20, with 32%
anticipating that prices will go above €25
between 2013 and 2020."



From carbonpositive
"The prices of Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs) continue to rise into June after a solid upward trend throughout May. New concerns over supply of the Kyoto CDM carbon credits, bullish signals on demand and the rising world oil price have combined to push up the price of issued CERs on the secondary market by almost 20 per cent since April 30...

...Hints that Germany might campaign against the European Commission proposal for no new CER allowance in the EU ETS post 2012 have helped boost buyer sentiment...."



Latest prices

2008 EUA 27.54
2012 EUA 30.65

2008 CER 20.38 !
2012 CER 19.80

[asparks] 06/6/2008 15:38

RNS Number : 1958W
Trading Emissions PLC
06 June 2008




Trading Emissions plc
("Trading Emissions" or the "Company")
Rule 8.4

On 4 June 2008, Moore Macro Fund, LP c/o Moore Europe Capital Management ("Moore")
acquired 595,000 Econergy International plc ("Econergy") ordinary shares of 1 penny each.

Prior to this sale, Moore had held 3,705,000 shares in Econergy all of which were
subject to the irrevocable undertaking entered into between Moore, Trading
Emissions and Cenkos Securities plc, as previously disclosed in the Rule 2.5
announcement of 15 May 2008.

Moore now holds 4,300,000 shares (4.94%) of Econergy all of which remain subject
to the irrevocable undertaking.

Enquiries
EEA Fund Management Limited [phone]
Simon Shaw, Investment Advisor to Trading Emissions
Cenkos Securities plc [phone]
Nominated Adviser and Joint Broker
Ivonne Cantu / Liz Bowman


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[wormcatcher] 27/5/2008 11:41

Director buy today.
Still haven't had a chance to read up on Econergy, but thanks for the summary jiopl.

[jiopl] 22/5/2008 16:18

Thanks asparks nice rise in ALK recently! but unfortunately I dont have any more funds to invest yet so I might have missed the boat on that one.

By the way 2012 CERs now at 18.25 Euros.

[asparks] 22/5/2008 12:47

If you like renewable energy investments I strongly suggest you check out ALK

[jiopl] 21/5/2008 21:04

Hi Recently invested in this company because I think it looks very undervalued at the moment,here is why.
In the interim statement they said the NAV was 184.41 per share based on a EUA price of 22.50-25 Euros and a CER price of 15.30-17.02 Euros (2008-12).
Since then EUAs have risen to 25.73-28.77 and CERs have risen to 17.33-17.95Euros (2008-12),that at todays prices.

Yesterday Point Carbon reduced their estimate of CERs to be issued between now and 2012 by 4.6% (91m CERs).
Also in the new draft of the Leiberman-warner bill CERs have been included potentially leading to a US demand for 288.75 million CERs in 2012.
I expect this to have a positive effect on the CER price especially ones for 2012 delivery.

Then there is Econergy.
27 million looks like a bargain to me.

In operation Corani 147MW hydro 50% ownership

In construction

Areia Branca 19.8MW hydro should be generating by october.

Proyecto Eolico 49.5MW wind,45.9% ownership should be fully operational by late 2009.

Pedro do sal 18MW wind should be generating by early 2009

Beberibe 25.6 MW wind should be generating by the end of June?

Potential projects

20MW hydro Brazil
35MW hydro Chile
20MW wind Mexico

Thats a lot of electricity and potential CERs for 27m.
Because these CERs would be coming from latin America unlike the vast majority that come from china as I understand it people would be willing to pay a small premium for them.(to reduce geographic risk)

Oh and there is the Cambria coal mine methane project that came online on 12 may.50% joint venture.
Should deliver 300 million cubic feet pa and VERs for 12 years.
Although VERs are only being auctioned for about 5 euros at the moment I expect the price to rise as the voluntary market develops,also they will help diversify Trading Emissions portfolio as will the fact that they have been doing a few EUA-CER swaps.

I would say that the Econergy deal will only increase the NAV of Trading Emissions.

In my opinion the shares are worth at least £2 and I intend to top up when I have more funds,unless I am missing something important and there is a reason for the large discount to NAV?

Good luck to all

[wormcatcher] 15/5/2008 17:22

So they have had an offer accepted although at a 32% premium.
Need to do some more research into Econergy now then.

[goinbroke] 21/4/2008 02:34

this stock is too cheap the company buy back programme should take us closer to NAV of £1.84.
keep adding on dips.

[wormcatcher] 18/4/2008 14:10

Continuing a nice upwards trend at last.

[praipus] 11/4/2008 10:38

Econergy ECG seems to be quite cheap to my untrained eye. Share your scepticism, though from ECG's point of view there are rumoured to be multiple interested parties.

[wormcatcher] 11/4/2008 09:44

Offer made for Ecoenergy International
Link to Ecoenergy website
Appear to invest in or procure renewable energy facilities in mainly South America.
Looks like Neil Eckert is the Chairman - always a bit wary when a company wants to acquire another company where the Executives have an interest in both.

[praipus] 27/3/2008 10:10

So the TRE share price at £1.18 is a 35% discount to NAV!

Share buy back pending.

To improve shareholder value why not give the cash back to share holders through cash back/special dividend or Warrants or B shares instead of buy backs?

[wormcatcher] 27/3/2008 08:30

As of 26 March 2008, risk adjusted CER portfolio under exclusivity and contracted total 57.09m (Oct 07 results 50.3m) of which 1.92m issued (Oct 07 results 1.2m)

[wormcatcher] 27/3/2008 08:15

Look like a good steady set of results - conservative NAV at 184.41p.

The Board notes the disparity between the Company's current share price and the
net asset value, if this persists the Board will closely consider taking action
to address what it believes to be a short term anomaly.

In January 2008, the Company bought back 6,985,000 shares at an average price of
142.70p representing 2.43% of the total issued share capital. In the light of
this price disparity, the Board will consider further share buybacks.

[wormcatcher] 16/1/2008 14:33

Been away for a couple of days and have just noticed there has been a trading statement & share buy back. Haven't had time yet to compare the trading statement with the last results though.

[wormcatcher] 07/12/2007 10:20

Inv,
Still here & watching - will pick some more up shortly on this dip.
Would seem to be undervalued based on last set of results, but it is one of those shares where you do not get a lot of news in between results so it tends to loose its way a little. Very long term hold and I'm sure it will give very good returns.

[inv] 06/12/2007 14:10

this has been very quiet but should move up soon

[inv] 27/11/2007 23:55

this looks very good. Could well hit 250p within 6 months

[praipus] 31/10/2007 10:35

Thanks spawny100 are you aware of any listed companies that own or maintain Forestry? FNT is the only one I know and its the subject of a bid rumour! I also didnt realise that the government own so much forestry surprised Maggie didnt privatise it.

[spawny100] 30/10/2007 21:39

I work in forestry sector Praipus and was an investor here some time ago. Nice chart by the way - should have stuck with it! I do not believe that Forestry owners do get this kind of carbon related grant - they may get all sorts of other grants such as Higher Level Stewardship (HLS) from DEFRA etc but I do not think that carbon credits have stretched their tentacles into forestry owners. I may be wrong as I am not a pen pusher, more the kind of chap out with a billhook and chainsaw.

[praipus] 30/10/2007 21:20

Can any of you carbon experts tell me if Forestry owners get EUA's, ERU's or CER's for growing trees?

[l3gend] 18/10/2007 18:49

Looks a very conservative NAV. This is clearly the success story of the green sector.