Ft Tre Discussion Threads

[wormcatcher] 18/10/2007 09:15

Results look strong. Combined NAV of 171.03p and glancing through the results they have been quite conservative in risk adjusting the portfolio, and adjusting down for conversion of terms to contracts. Using EUA 08-12 of 15 to 16 euros (currently at 23.10)

[wormcatcher] 10/10/2007 11:43

Yes - looking strong and counting down now to the 18th.
Its going to be interesting.
EUA Dec08 Futures have had a good run as of late, as at 10th Oct 2007 € 21.75

[fackson] 02/10/2007 23:48

HSBC buying in - looks better and better.

[codydotcom] 22/9/2007 11:58

I'm glad I opted to roll my September bets over

[fackson] 20/9/2007 11:04

lloyds upping stake and now breaking short term resistance at 150, looks like a run up to the interims on the 18th...

[codydotcom] 29/8/2007 09:26

From last night's Carbon Market Daily:

The price for European carbon allowances for next-year delivery increased 5.3 per cent during Tuesday trading as buyers flocked to the market, according to traders.
The December 2008 contract closed at €19.30 at 17.30 CET, €0.97 above yesterday's close. It opened at €18.50 and gained strength from there, peaking late in the afternoon at €19.40.
"German power is showing a lot of strength comparatively to last week, providing confidence in carbon, which came down too far last week," one trader said. "It now looks like we have broken out of the bearish trend, and I think we will be trading up or at least sideways for a while," he added.
"It looks like a technical break-out to me. In addition,
German utilities are back from holidays and are buying a bit more aggressively," added another.

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[praipus] 23/8/2007 17:46

asparks very impressive, positive stuff.

[lordcoco] 23/8/2007 08:56

I'm still about wormcatcher. Reduced my holding a fair bit though when that bounce failed to run.

My main problems with this share are, primarily, that I don't really understand the markets they are in, I find the whole carbon sector overly complicated and good sources of news (that is if I even fully understand them) hard to come by and then to take a view on. I don't like the way the share price has moved and the sporadic lumpy volume, though it does look as the trend up is still intact. I also don't like the way the one class of share has moved against the other, a reaction that I again don't fully understand but looks like some kind of arbitrage play.

On a general and very simplistic level, I imagine that as the date for the next phase approaches the "froth" comes off and sceptisism grows.

However, I did find this bit of news encouraging:

[wormcatcher] 22/8/2007 17:01

Plenty of news recently - no-one here but me?

[wormcatcher] 06/8/2007 08:20

Trading statement out - sounds good but got to go out so will look in detail later.

[wormcatcher] 04/8/2007 18:43

Just got back off holiday nd saw the news about the biodiesel investment - haven't had a chance to look at it properly (lots of unpacking etc to do) - what do people think? Bit of a change in direction & strategy.

[codydotcom] 13/7/2007 10:26

Ah. I know Alstom reasonably well. I used to work for ABB years ago.

They have risen well, since the problems with their GT26 nearly brought them to their knees.

[lordcoco] 13/7/2007 10:17

Thanks cody, talking of european power have a look at Alstom, been trading them on and off for a while.



World leader in energy infrastructure, they build "cleaner" power plants (along with many other things), I suspect their rise from the ashes (were in deep do-do a few years back) is in no small part due to Kyoto. It's another thing to bear in mind I suppose, as the infrastructure is updated across the world with cleaner alternatives what effect on the emissions market over the long term?

[codydotcom] 13/7/2007 09:47

To be honest, I can only quote from a daily report I receive:

EU carbon allowances for delivery next year fell nearly 2 per cent, extending a two-month low from the previous session amid flagging German power prices and swap-related activity, traders said.

and

Meanwhile, the active German power baseload 2008 contract, which generally moves in tandem with carbon, shed almost 1.8 percent on the day to end at €55.25/MWh on the EEX exchange.


Don't ask me what's driving it. I lost touch with European power some time ago.

[lordcoco] 13/7/2007 09:12

Thanks cody, can you elaborate re the german power prices?

Another thing that has apparently being dampening the CERs is the delay in the launch of the International Transaction Log which allows CERs to be transfered across international borders - should be sorted late this year apparently.

Could be that the drop was just down to softening of prices, strange the anomally between the two share classes though.

[codydotcom] 13/7/2007 08:54

Thanks for the chart LC.

I think the increased confidence in CERs has got to be taken as a positive.

Apparently, the recent EUA fall is led by German power prices, and the swap related activity from above.

cheers

[lordcoco] 13/7/2007 08:48

08s have been sold off quite heavily the last couple of weeks:



This could reflect moves in cdc's article above, which I suppose is good news for TRE.

Date for trading on the European Climate Exchange for CERs getting closer too, I suspect as that date approaches interest will pick up again, would still like to know what exactly was behind the big drop recently, a little unerving but I'm happy to hold for the time being and see how things develop.

[codydotcom] 12/7/2007 12:53

Indeed. I have wondered for some time why the CERs were so cheap compared to the EUA. I'm guessing if this carries on, that the prices will tend towards each other.

[lordcoco] 12/7/2007 12:36

That's a very encouraging bit of news cdc, thanks. Good to see a tick up after the huge volume days of late.

[codydotcom] 12/7/2007 10:32

European firms seen swapping EUAs for CERs: traders
European companies are demonstrating increasing confidence in the carbon market by cashing in on the price difference between European carbon credits and credits derived from emissions reductions projects outside of the EU, traders said on Wednesday.
To help minimise the cost of complying with the European cap-and-trade market, traders said companies covered under the EU's emissions trading scheme could sell European carbon allowances (EUAs) and buy certified emission reduction (CERs) from UN-endorsed offset projects.
Two deals of 500,000 allowances and one deal of 750,000 were reported yesterday, with the EUA sellers reportedly buying the equivalent volume of CERs as part of the same transactions. With EUAs currently trading at around €20.75 and CERs priced around €14.00-14.50, EUA sellers are effectively swapping the allowances for CERs and making €6.25-6.75 profit per credit, traders said, pointing out that the development is due to increasing confidence that CERs will be delivered in time to comply with 2008 emissions targets.
"Customers are looking at selling their allowances and buying back CERs and, depending on the market at the time, being paid €5.00 to €7.00 to do so. There is a growing perception that CERs are becoming risk free and, because you can use them for compliance, it is, in essence, free money," said Louis Redshaw, head of environmental markets at UK-based bank Barclays Capital.
CERs are generated from emission reduction projects in developing countries. Currently, the credits cannot be delivered into EU national carbon registries because the UN has not completed testing its software that logs the transfer of credits.
The process of testing UN software with national registries will continue over the summer, a UN official said this week. But even if testing is successful,
CERs will not be fully fungible with EUAs until parties to the Kyoto Protocol are deemed eligible by the UN – a 16-month process that most EU states will complete in April 2008.
However, Redshaw reckons that despite the uncertainty, these types of deals will become increasingly popular and is advising his customers to swap EUAs for cheaper credits up to the maximum amount that is allowed under EU law.
Under EU rules, each installation in the scheme has a maximum number of CERs they can use for compliance. Most companies can substitute CERs up to a maximum of 10 per cent of their allocation, but German companies, due to the methodology applied by the European commission, can use up to 22 per cent.

[wormcatcher] 10/7/2007 18:36

Artemis increasing their stake as well.

[wormcatcher] 06/7/2007 14:17

Trading Emissions PLC ("the Company"), announces that it has been informed today that on 3rd July 2007 Lansdowne UK Equity Fund Limited now has an interest in 7,538,780 shares, representing 4.31% of the C Class share capital of the Company being 175,000,000.

[l3gend] 04/7/2007 09:32

Quite possible the C shares are worth more than the A shares. Either way, they are trading at about the same level now. I have been shorting the A shares and long the C shares as i believe that the C shares were worth approx the same as the A shares. Guess others have done this also. Have clsoed this trade now they are at parity. Dont expect the stock to do much now until September.