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Posted at 10/4/2024 13:51 by ashkv I am of the view that TXP will not be meeting even the low end of 2024 Production Guidance. The below Assumes that both drilled Casc wells come online on 1 July 2024 / and the Boe/d TXP will have to be averaging for H2 to meet 2024 Mid and/or Low Guidance Total H1 2024 Production (Boe/d) Assuming Q2 Same as Q1 2024 (7,015 Boe/d): 1,283,745 TXP 2024 Low Guidance -> 9,100 TXP 2024 Mid-Guidance -> 9,400 H2 Production Total Boe/d Production To Meet TXP 2024 Low Guidance: 2,046,855 or 11,124 (Boe/d) H2 Production Average H2 Production Total Boe/d Production To Meet TXP 2024 Mid Guidance: 2,156,655 or 11,785 (Boe/d) H2 Production Average Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 10/4/2024 07:23 by buffythebuffoon I held three company’s shares; SAVE, TXP & AXL in order of purchase. I wanted to raise some money and my clear favourite to sell was TXP. I sold, dribbled out, my whole investment in TXP and am completely out of them now. Of course, I only had two options in the first place and I wouldn’t sell any AXL. Paul Baay has been a real disappointment but my bigger disappointment is in not listening to my gut which just after his ‘wall of cash’ interview was telling me I should revisit a comment that a fellow bulletin board poster told me about the Calgary type mentality of the man. He shared his time between living in Blighty and living in Canada and knew what he was talking about. Invest in the man only became a number one criteria for me slightly after buying TXP. So what is the Calgary type? Paraphrasing his words it’s basically a man who flies by the seat of his pants whether he is wearing a suit or not. Think trying to herd the stampede. That’s the image I had. Even while talking with an even tone sitting at a desk the heart of the man at crunch moments is to grab what looks like an opportunity without seriously looking at the downside. Of course, maybe the upside for him was far greater than the upside for investors and he would always do well out of it. Good for him. I’ve never really bought into the mantra of Buffett that the best holding term is forever. Look at the constituents of the old FT30… The CAGR of an investment in TXP from the the start of the Ortoire acquisition has been and always will be very poor whatever happens. I won’t be looking back. Buffy Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 09/4/2024 13:06 by ashkv Dodgy CEO - hyping expectations, Coho underperforming, Casc underperforming, delayed project/drill timelines, wasteful recent equity raise, poor market sentiment, high tax regime combined with low fixed cost gas tariff etc are some of the factors that have contributed to TXP lagging. I too am happy having exited TXP last at 80p - it has been a rockstar share for me with 5x returns from entry in the low teens/averaging up in the mid 20s to exiting all the way from 150p+ down to 80p. Last entry was around 80p in 2022 post selling initial 2020/2021 entries - 80p I got out around flat!!! Issues around Coho and Casc production levels need to be clearly explained!!! Why the strong decline rates?? Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 23/3/2024 08:20 by eggchaser I also agree with the rest of your statement and will add that the idea of investing is a gamble - some more risky than others. Where TXP sit within that statement is down to the view of the investor....Having bought GKP at 22p and then making some awful decisions thereafter tells you the appetite I have for risk and see TXP as a safer bet than previous plays but accept the CEO could be leading us on a merry dance but if he is not and an ace is dealt soon, should see my gamble pay off if you follow.That said if I had bought Rolls Royce instead of TXP I'd have doubled my money by now... so it is food for thought! Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 21/3/2024 14:33 by ashkv TXP has been a wonder share for me with an average entry price of 18-19p on my medium time frame trade which I exited around 100p on average as I sold out. I track it and will continue to do so - if you go back and review on this very chat I highlighted Coho production concerns when it was not popular on this board!!! (If I recall correctly over a year prior) Also appreciate perforations were underway - that is why I asked about January 2024 production information - was that provided prior? No info as to perforation operations results in recent RNS - which doesn't speak well as to reservoir performance!!!! The holy grail for any E&P firm!!! I glanced through TXP's 2024 RNS and I couldn't spot the Jan 2024 Production figures on a cursory review!!! If Cascadura turns out to be a Coho in terms of production profile - that Casc 2, Casc 3 etc - will only be a process of running to stay in place.... I am rooting for TXP and wish it success - but PB has not been straight... from way back (Chinook), Royston raise etc. And has PB been buying TXP shares in size? TXP Directors Buying? Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 21/3/2024 13:58 by ashkv Why the massive decrease in Cascadura production in February 2024? JAM Tomorrow!!! Production Increase H2 2024 / End 2024..... I am very concerned that Cascadura is another Coho :( Coho continues to decline steeply and now well below 500 boe/d as per Feb 24 production numbers. Did TXP provide January 2024 production figures? Paul Baay has not LEARNED - OPENESS INCLUDING ADVERSE DEVELOPMENTS SHOULD BE BROADCAST TO INVESTORS!!! DODGY GUY DODGY COMPANY!!! FULL OF GAS!!! TXP SHARE PRICE: 47.50p TXP share price vs 52 Week low of 40.5p on 6 Feb 24: 17.28% TXP share price vs 52 Week High of 94.5p on 7 Aug 23: -49.74% Brent: $85.70 Shares Outstanding (From FY 2023 Update): 234,213,000 Market Cap (GBP): £111,251,175 GBPUSD: 1.27 Market Cap (USD): $141,288,992 Production Average Q4 2023: 8,504 Production Average February 2024: 7,081 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production: 9,400 2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance: 14,500 Net Debt (FY 2023 Results RNS): $22,581,000 Enterprise Value (USD): $163,869,992 Enterprise Value Per Barrel (USD) Q4 2023 Avg Production: $19,270 Enterprise Value Per Barrel (USD) Avg Production Feb 24: $23,142 Enterprise Value 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production: $17,433 Enterprise Value 2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance: $11,301 2P Reserves (Boe) Year End 2023: 67,379,000 EV/2P: $2.43 Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/2/2024 09:54 by sirmark Touchstone Exploration (TXP) announced an operational update, highlighted by the drilling results of the Cascadura-2 delineation well. TXP said the encouraging Cascadura-2 delineation well drilling results represent a great start to 2024. Cascadura-2 has proved up the concept of highly productive sands extending significantly to the east of our initial Cascadura discovery. It estimates that the well was drilled for under $6 million on a gross basis, which further enhances the economics of this prolific hydrocarbon fairway. With this new data point it can design a multi year drilling program to fully develop the structure. This well has not defined the eastern most edge of the structure, which warrants further delineation through future drilling. Comment: TXP has been one of the more frustrating plays in its space, especially after recently breaking the floor of its 50p – 90p trading range. At least today’s news gives the bulls a reason to return to the stock at the low levels on renewed prospects for Cascadura-2. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 01/2/2024 19:22 by spangle93 Have to disagree with you, kaos I believe you do understand the TXP experts! ;-) Otherwise the only thing I think I'd push back on is that the TXP experts on another social media platform were expecting 90 MM, because that was the initial facilities capacity, but I'm not sure TXP ever promised that. Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 19/12/2023 16:03 by ashkv TXP DATA POINTS TXP SHARE PRICE: 45.00p TXP share price vs 52 Week low of 45p on 19 Dec 23: 0.00% TXP share price vs 52 Week High of 94.5p on 7 Aug 23: -52.38% Brent: $79.00 Shares Outstanding (From Q3 2023 Update): 234,213,000 Market Cap (GBP): £105,395,850 GBPUSD: 1.27 Market Cap (USD): $133,852,730 Production Average Q3 2023: 3,391 Production Average Nov 2023 including Cascadura: 8,268 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production: 9,400 2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance: 14,500 Net Debt (Q3 2023 Results RNS): $29,919,000 Enterprise Value (USD): $163,771,730 Enterprise Value Per Barrel (USD) Q3 2023 Avg Production: $48,296 Enterprise Value Per Barrel (USD) November Avg Production w/Cascadura: $19,808 Enterprise Value 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production: $17,423 Enterprise Value 2024 Year End Exit Production Guidance: $11,295 2P Reserves (Boe) Year End 2022: 75,100,000 EV/2P: $2.18 Read Full Thread Reply
Posted at 08/10/2023 12:41 by pro_s2009 Hopefully this is the precursor for a new pricing deal between TXP and the NGC. Dont forget, every forecast is currently on the 2.5$ pricing, however, TXP are trying to renegotiate to get 3$+. This new deal NGC to PLNL being signed, might open the door now for TXP to get their price increase. Any increase in the gas price TXP to NGC will have very significant effects on the cash inflow in future for TXP. NGC and PLNL execute a new Gas Sales Contract Oct 4, 2023 \| Business and Business Development, Downstream Ventures and Development Read Full Thread Reply