Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 14/5/2018 23:01

Brent continuing to strengthen - set a new 3.5 year high today of $78.5


According to Goldman Sachs, global oil demand growth in the first quarter of 2018 is likely to have been the strongest yearly growth since the fourth quarter of 2010 - and its being driven largely by rocketing Chinese demand.

The Most Underappreciated Story In The Oil Market - China’s ever-growing oil demand.

[fardels bear] 14/5/2018 22:40

I've read the latest presentation and it does look promising. What's the fiscal regime and political risk?

[lord gnome] 14/5/2018 22:06

Small spuds yes, FB - but so is the mkt cap at less than £20 millions. If we are soon to be producing 2k bopd at a net margin of $30, that's $60k per day or approx $21 millions pa. At $1.40 to the £, I make that approx. £15 millions of underlying profit pa.
Unless my understanding of the company, or my maths, are seriously flawed, we are looking at one hell of a mis-price (of Serica proportions). At a multiple of 4x cash profits we would have a share price of 45p. Would anyone out there like to pull my reasoning apart for me and come up with an alternative valuation?

[fardels bear] 14/5/2018 22:04

I'll have a bit more of a read in the morning, thanks ross..

[fardels bear] 14/5/2018 20:20

Lots of names I know on here..But isn't 2000 bopd just small potatoes?Has it got real growth potential?

[mount teide] 14/5/2018 19:31

Some good analysis on the factors affecting the supply outlook for oil over the next 18-24 months.

[someuwin] 14/5/2018 11:37

Bought some more on the back of today's v positive update.

[walter walcarpets] 14/5/2018 10:46

Couldn't resist a few more at 15.1p. Cheap as chips :-)

[glennborthwick] 14/5/2018 10:13

If they can make 30$ a pop and can hit 2000 a day the numbers speak for themselves.

[che7win] 14/5/2018 10:07

When we caught up with CEO Paul Baay in April, he told us, 'by year-end we are going to have cash flow of well over $1m a month. That is a big number when you think that we will be generating the same amount every month as we made every quarter last year.'In today's update, the company announced it has drilled and cased the first five wells of the 2018 drilling program. Two wells have been completed and are currently in production, with the remaining three wells expected to come on stream by the end of June.

[glennborthwick] 14/5/2018 09:58

bought in today having done well on trin.

Looking for both to double in a 24 month time line. Stable area, price of oil much better than six months ago, All good.

[zengas] 14/5/2018 09:49

"Our business is not dependent on finding oil - we know the oil is there".

"Of the 208 net drilling locations identified, 64 are proved locations" (P1), "58 are probable locations" (P2) and the remaining are unbooked locations".

In 2017, they drilled 4 new wells and 20 recompletions.

P2 reserves went up (after production) by a net 18% to 18.55 mmbls by finding greater net pay.

This year 10 new wells and 24 recompletions. If on the same basis as last year (and before any exploration drilling) we could see reserves get to around 22 mmbls imo.

CEO on the last reserves report in March - "With 208 drilling locations identified by Management and only 90 locations booked in the report, the team remains conservative on the potential upside of the asset base.

Looking for 4-5k bopd future target range as drilling ramps up and circa 40 mmbo+ reserves.

Not only if you increase production but if you add separately and conservatively a further 10-15mmbo P2, the reserves alone more than dwarf some folks issues re the financing facility.

[captainfatcat] 14/5/2018 09:28

Good update and progress.

Quiet happy for that progress to go unrecognised for the time being. The more progress made the more confidences there is the company is capable of delivering on its stated ambitions and the greater the opportunity to build what looks to be a fairly low risk position with great upside.

The heard will catch on at some point.

[2prsimo] 14/5/2018 09:18

crazy cheap at less than £20m market cap - should be double that and probably more

[brasso3] 14/5/2018 09:15

TXP just keeps doing the business. The revenues/ profits are now quite substantial for a company with a £19m mkt cap.

[crooky1967] 14/5/2018 09:14

Really nice update from TXP today, looking forward to 1Q financials and further updates on new well rates in due course. Agree with previous posters that this will take us over 2000 bopd. With new wells being drilled can see 2500 hopefully by the end of the year.

With netback around £30 a barrel (Conservative estimate) then TXP really must be making some cash.

Congratulations to TXP, Paul and all staff on great update.

[walter walcarpets] 14/5/2018 09:12

Come on Mr Market - wake up. This has got to re-rate more substantially on this news!

[mount teide] 14/5/2018 08:31

Impressive update & drilling results, which has the potential to deliver a significant increase in total production.

Next five wells to start in late May/early June with probable completion by early/mid August if the first five are a reliable guide.

[rafieh] 14/5/2018 08:13

Discovered this share over the weekend and was going to buy today anyway. The RNS added a premium for me. :-(But never mind. Just in at 15p. I think we will be above 20p before summer is out.

[grannyboy] 14/5/2018 07:57

Well can't have any complaints about the progress and Paul Baays comments gives us confidence...

"We are excited to see the stabilised production results from these wells as we accelerate to our target of 2,000 barrels per day"

And rossannan should be pleased to have received confirmation of the drilling of the well on WD- 8 block?...

[zengas] 14/5/2018 07:53

First rate update.

"The first five wells of 2018 have been successfully drilled. With the promising net pay indicated on the logs, we expect to have the potential for significant production coming on stream as the wells are completed."

Highest bopd figure so far = 1772 bopd and significant production expected to come on stream.

PS-602 on stream at 50 bopd and are going to perforate an additional 50% net pay.

FR-1792 157ft net pay - only put on production 4 days ago from 20ft and rates to be given once stablised.

FR-1793 194ft net pay to be on production in next 7 days.

CO-370 227 ft net pay with 121 ft in the Cruse formation.
CO-371 405 ft net pay with 280 ft in the Cruse formation.

As a guide CO-368 was producing 52 bopd average for the first 262 days from 41 ft of Cruse pay. CO-369 was producing 188 bopd over 262 days from 71ft Cruse pay. Added pump to CO-369 and then upped to 196 bopd on 14th March - hence as PB says "potential for significant production to come on stream" - shortly in terms of CO-370/371 wells alone imo - much greater pay in the new wells.

In addition, they are now going back to drill 2 follow up wells to C0-368 and 369 (possible 200+ bopd combined possiblility alone for these two imminent upcoming wells).

Given the much lower number of wells drilled last year and the increased net pays which gave an 18% increase in P2 after production, i'm expecting a further increase in reserves again.