Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[che7win] 12/1/2018 10:42

Maz,
it's all about 'drilling' here this year, welcome aboard, your timing is excellent imho!

I'm not a natural oil investor, but energy firms this year are a key investment, I think the sector will do well.

This is my largest oil investment, followed by TRIN.

I hold some I3E bought yesterday and in the 'highly speculative' camp, and a few GMS (high risk).

TXP for me has great upside and I know the CEO Paul Baay is very keen to get the ball rolling this year.

[mazarin] 12/1/2018 10:41

I drilled into this this morning with a small stake. Its been a long time since I was in this field, previously held Atlantic Caspian and that wasn't the best experience. Hence my tentative approach.

[che7win] 12/1/2018 09:37

Good posts MT,
the beauty of the drilling campaign is they fulfill their licence obligations and the expansion in production will be impressive.

[mount teide] 11/1/2018 18:53

sleeven - 'Forgot to mention the recompletions that should modulate the decline rates.'

In a recent presentation Paul Baay CEO said the 24 well recompletions has the potential to generate a production increase at least equivalent to the worst case historical field decline rate.

Leaving the expected average increase per well of 75 to 100 bopd from the 10 well drilling programme to lift production to somewhere in the range of 2,250 bopd to 2,500 bopd.

In a strongly rising oil price environment - TXP management could't have better timed the commencement of a 10 well continuous drilling programme at a cost less than 50% of 2014 rates and 20% below the rates paid for the 4 well programme last year.

[mount teide] 11/1/2018 18:43

Norway's North Energy Capital AS has been the largest stake builder since TXP came to AIM in June - building up an initial 5.1% position via the open market at circa 8.5p during August. And then a near doubling up to 9.99% via the Dec 2017 Private Placement at 11.5p. North Energy's management team has a high conviction approach to investment - preferring to hold a relatively small number of large investments.

North restructured during 2016 and is now a holding company with an investment portfolio focused on the energy sector. The decision to cease operations in the Norwegian Continental Shelf were a consequence of the persistent challenges small cap exploration companies like North faced in a high cost location in a low oil price environment.

North's strategic business move to become industry investors rather than operators has seen a sharp turnaround in shareholder returns - a performance which suggests they are proving to be a good judge of valuation and potential within the sector.

Q3/ Results - Oslo, 9 November

North Energy ASA recorded a net profit of NOK 4.5 million in the third quarter of 2017, compared to a loss of NOK 16 million in the corresponding quarter 2016. The improved result is mainly due to a lower cost base as well as solid results from the Company’s investments.


Q2/ Results - Oslo, 22 August 2017

North Energy ASA recorded a net profit of NOK 41.1m in the second quarter of 2017, compared to a profit of NOK 5.4m in the corresponding quarter 2016. The improved result is mainly due to gain on investments. Over the past year, North Energy has successfully transitioned to become an industrial holding company focused on value creation through energy and energy related investments.


Encouraging to see high conviction Institutional Investors with long, hands on operational, technical and financial experience of the industry on TXP's shareholders list who, have elected to double up at a price nearly 40% above their initial position.

[sleveen] 11/1/2018 18:05

Forgot to mention the recompletions that should modulate the decline rates.

[brasso3] 11/1/2018 18:03

WTI now at $64.5!

[sleveen] 11/1/2018 17:43

Worth reposting

[che7win] 11/1/2018 17:02

rossannan,
I agree.

And besides that, I don't think I've ever come across such a large arbitrage opportunity as between TXP AIM share price and TXP TSX share price presenting itself here.

At least not since investing in Acorn shares to get ARM exposure :-)

The drilling campaign here is imminent, surprised these aren't at year highs (Canada really leading the way - maybe they know more than we do).

I expect TXP to hit the ground running, they want drilling asap.

[che7win] 11/1/2018 16:23

Paying 15.6p on TSX exchange

[sleveen] 11/1/2018 16:21

If we assume each well comes in at 100 bopd that's 1000 bopd and add to current 1400 and net off 300bopd for declines to give circa 2100bopd the 2018 target production of 2200 rate seems achievable and realistic.

[mount teide] 11/1/2018 16:18

Ross - Warren Buffet became an incredibly wealthy man using little more than a broad brush approach to equity investment!

On a pure value level TXP stacks up incredibly well against its T&T peers, and is in a sector with a strong flood tide behind it - helping to minimise downside risk. The POO has risen around $20-$25 from where TXP was generating circa $6m positive cash flow.

[mount teide] 11/1/2018 16:18

Ross - Warren Buffet became an incredibly wealthy man using little more than a broad brush approach to equity investment!

On a pure value level TXP stacks up incredibly well against its T&T peers, and is in a sector with a strong flood tide behind it - helping to minimise downside risk. The POO has risen around $20-$25 from where TXP was generating circa $6m positive cash flow.

[marvelman] 11/1/2018 16:06

Many thanks all for your responses. A good BB with some quality investors for sure.

[hiddendepths] 11/1/2018 16:01

Wrong thread. I'm having one of those days!

[brasso3] 11/1/2018 15:56

The end of year target is around 2200 BOPD. The average production for 2018 will therefore be around 1900 BOPD.

At $60 WTI that is around $41m in revenue (before royalty payments)

1900 BOPD x $60 x 365 = $41.5m

The local taxes will be quite low in 2018 due to the high amount of CAPEX with the 10 well drilling programme.

[captainfatcat] 11/1/2018 15:53

Looks good dipped a toe in as well

8-)

[sleveen] 11/1/2018 15:52

marvelman

TXP about to initiate a 10 well development drilling program.

It's difficult to say what the cash flow would be in 1 yrs time assuming all wells produce 100-200 bopd.

[brasso3] 11/1/2018 15:41

HD

I thought you would like this one based on your views on SDX. :)

I really like TXP and its significantly undervalued compared to its peers in Trinidad (eg TRIN & CERP).

[hiddendepths] 11/1/2018 15:16

Bought a few Brasso!

[marvelman] 11/1/2018 14:56

Guys

I note that the capital element of the $15 million loan is payable from 2019. Does anyone have a number for free cash flow from that period. Looking to invest here.

[che7win] 11/1/2018 14:36

MT, It's incredibly cheap to me, 2-3 bagger not inconceivable on modest assumptions.I think they will be quick on the drilling campaign, seem very eager to get wells drilled early on this year.