Totally Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 02/11/2017 08:53

I have been holding off posting recently for a variety of reasons but feel compelled to make a comment at this point.

We currently have a business which is valued at about a quarter times turnover which clearly on the face of it is ridiculous. The reason for that is the recent problems at Vocare and the lack of profitability, although we are told that should resolve in the second half.

So if the Vocare business was slimmed down by losing some of the non profitable problem parts over the coming months and years surely that is a good thing. I remind you that the valuation is currently a quarter times turnover. If the turnover was halved but that resulted in the company being comfortably profitable, I suggest that the share price would be much higher than now. In addition, there will be the inevitable cost savings when you combine businesses. There are always some back office functions which can be shared and will lead to the loss of a number of people, which will help profitability.

I have met Bob Holt on a couple of occasions and questioned him in detail, although not since this acquisition. These interactions have led me to put a lot of faith in his judgement. His recent large purchases are encouraging because he is prepared to put his money where his mouth is. The fact that there is rumblings about the increasing privatisation of the NHS is a red herring IMHO. Where greater value can be extracted by contracting services out, there is no doubt it will continue. We all know that large publicly run organisations are notoriously inefficient, which is why there is the scope for profit making efficient companies to step in to provide cheaper services.

So I place my faith in Bob Holt to reform Vocare and turn TLY into a sustainably profitable company. In addition, we can expect further acquisitions in the future which will further expand the company and lower the risk.

At this level it is a stonking buy IMHO, although experience tells me it may well go lower before we get the inevitable rerating.

GLA

Nobby

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 08:14

River

Sick and twisted no other words for you.

[riverway] 02/11/2017 08:10

Here are the links-

The Vocare logo is in the top right hand corner:

hxxp://www.yorkshiredoctorsurgentcare.nhs.uk/centres.php

And here is the Daily Mail article:

[riverway] 02/11/2017 08:07

Graham Wales - the article is in todays Daily Mail. Are they deramping Totally? You should get onto the editor.

Go and do a google search for Yorkshire Doctors Urgent Care centre and you will find it says on the first line that it is part of Vocare.

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 08:06

River

Sick and twisted like I said what will you post next to make money.

Sad very sad

[riverway] 02/11/2017 08:04

Graham Wales - the 111 call handler passed the case onto a GP from the out of hours service. This GP from the Yorkshire Doctors Urgent care centre (Vocare) sent the baby home, completely missing the bowel obstruction that killed him.

The article focuses on the changes to the 111 service, but it also highlights the problems of running both 111 and urgent care centres.

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 08:02

River

Which part of software changes didn't you understand. Also de ramping based on a baby's death is sick and twisted.

Your a sad case.

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 08:00

No you didn't you changed the article wording and put Vocare's name in there which wasn't mentioned and failed to post the complete sentence. Genuine question are you shorting TLY? If not what is your purpose here.

Dr Mike Harrison, of Yorkshire Doctors Urgent Care, offered its sincere condolences to the family and said: 'In line with our own internal investigation, the coroner has confirmed that there was no evidence of negligence or incompetence.

[riverway] 02/11/2017 07:59

At the very least the article shows that the urgent care and 111 business is dependent on the quality of people employed.

As to the time of the incident - 2015- I believe Vocare was a not for profit at this time. There is likely to have been far more goodwill and less impetus for legal action if the company was thought to be a not for profit. Attitudes may be different towards a private company.

By the way there is a timeframe of up to three years to claim for medical negligence.

This is one case that has made the newspapers; how many others are out there?

[riverway] 02/11/2017 07:51

Graham Wales - I let the article stand for itself. People can form their own opinions.

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 07:35

River

This was a national issue with all providers not just the region, hence why Vocare was not to blame for this incident. But hey keep on de ramping mate Bob is loving these prices so am I. :-)

Yorkshire Ambulance Service, which delivers NHS 111 across the region, confirmed that national changes had already been made to the telephone triage software used by the NHS 111 service, in regard to issues highlighted by the coroner

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 07:32

Savage

So I gather by your post you work for the NHS. Well even you must realise that its failing big time and needs help. Don't you think a filtering system to ease the burden on hospitals is a good idea?

[grahamwales] 02/11/2017 07:30

river

Shame you didn't mention the fact that there was no blame placed on Vocare. Anyway how long ago was it, was it before Totally took over by any chance.

[pugugly] 02/11/2017 07:11

SS> So very true - One reason I am watching but not investing at the moment. Very difficult to make and grow profits in this area - Calls for VERY good oranisation and structure which could take a LONG time to execute - Remember it is a people business and not all participants are well motivated.

[riverway] 02/11/2017 00:04

Just saw a sad article about a child who died because of an undiagnosed intestinal blockage. Seems the 111 service and the out of hours doctor from Yorkshire Doctors urgent care centre missed the symptoms. A Dr Mike Harrison from Yorkshire Doctors Urgent care - a part of Vocare -is quoted.

[savagedstock] 01/11/2017 21:53

sorry to hear that you think anyone who has a different opinion to you is an idiot...there are a lot of very smart people in the NHS who have different views, and it is only right and fair that they are heard.

Just like Mears gave back so many of their dom care contracts because they couldn't make any money, who says the same will not be true of urgent care...

[grahamwales] 01/11/2017 17:37

PS Everytime a director buys they are removing shares from the free float. This will in the near future result in a squeeze on the market makers who will in turn have to increase the price to gain any shares to sell on.

Just a matter of time now :-)

[grahamwales] 01/11/2017 17:33

The NHS will always need more money the population is growing and people are living longer. It's a bottomless money pit the more you improve it the more it needs.

If anyone says anything different they are not living in the real world.


There is no going back as far as outsourcing urgent care is concerned the system would collapse and there would be utter chaos. It has to get bigger just to keep pace with the ever demanding public

[savagedstock] 01/11/2017 12:09

For general info....i have no position in this stock as yet but looking at it from the long side....
There was a conference organised on 26/10/17 in London by concerned doctors. The Title was 'Does the NHS need more money to solve the problems? Time for an alternative narrative'. The conference was paid for by the doctors personally, no outside money was involved. Attendees included members of the health select committee, senior NHS directors, top medics and others, It was invite only and I gather no press. I was invited but couldn't attend - was with a mental health trust at the time. however i spoke to the organisers and some attendees...

The main conclusions were
1, nhs does not need more money
2. key is improving working practices and work flows - too many inefficiencies
3. No need for (management} consultants
4. outsourcing can be useful but treated with great scepticism...so many contracts being given back quietly at enormous cost and disruption to nhs...

What is interesting is that the senior medics within the NHS are now setting an agenda and the battle for policy is on. Interesting that they did not ask for more money - some of the organisers are now working to improve efficiency at underperforming trusts...there is a role for outsourcing, but the question is what. It will take several years before there is a consensus...in passing I note that MEARS plc have given back about 30% of the local authority contracts in Dom Care because they could not make any money...

[shroder] 01/11/2017 11:29

Market cap is a lot higher due to additional shares but earnings the same.

[macthepak] 01/11/2017 10:23

IMHO!!

I have noticed that Bob Holt had made several purchases of shares over the past few weeks namely:

50000 on 30.10.2017 40p

20000 on 18.10.2017 46p

20033 on 09.10.2017 58p

I have also noticed every time Bob buys shares the share price falls.

Is there a pattern?

PS. Totally Plc last reported earnings results showed loss per share 5p, negative equity return of 14.77% and a negative net margin of 26.14%.

[sikhthetech] 31/10/2017 23:53

Porky,

exactly... If Vocare was further down the line then it would have cost more...

I believe they had been eyeing Vocare for a while..

In their placing rns, they referred to an acquisition 'to' £15m with up to £60m revenue...

"The Group has identified a strong pipeline of potential acquisitions in the UK outsourced healthcare sector. Of the identified pipeline, the Directors have a preferred list of four target companies although no formal approaches or negotiations have yet begun. The anticipated consideration for the pipeline of acquisitions identified by the Group ranges from GBP3 million to GBP15 million with the pipeline of acquisitions having revenue of up to GBP60 million."





Therefore, when the RTO was announced I was expecting a further placing to raise more money..
In the end they only paid £11m cash and shares...yet the revenue wasn't £60m but £76m...
Therefore, I believe BH managed to get a better deal than he was originally expecting, probably because there were some issues to iron out...and he didn't pay all £11m in cash, so an incentive for the brothers to improve Vocare business..

Vocare covers some 9.2m patients so there's a lot of potential for cross selling of services...

There are issues to iron out and if BH manages to address those issues and improve the business, the potential is huge...
It's down to the BoD to fulfill the opportunity...

[porky8] 31/10/2017 23:22

Sikhthetech
Hi all noted ..... Vocare £11 million !!!....why ?......cos it needed turning around ........If Bob gets it right .....Bingo Big Time !

[sikhthetech] 31/10/2017 22:45

Thanks Shroder,

A lot of tax payers money is wasted by patients who don't need A&E..
The NHS needs reform and better targeting of resources....

Moving patients who don't need A&E to UCC is one way for the NHS to save money and leave the A&E for those who genuinely need it...
This is where TLY comes in...



Jeremy Hunt considers barring walk-in patients from A&E

"Speaking to an audience at an Urgent Health UK event in Birmingham on Thursday Thomas said that only 20% of walk-in patients called 111 before attending A&E. Of the 80% who did not, she said: “Some of them will need ED, but there’s an awful lot that won’t.�

[shroder] 31/10/2017 21:45

Half of £2bn NHS cash injection spent on outsourced private care providers labelled a 'disgrace'

Research shows £901 million of cash earmarked for front-line services spent on external providers