Total Share Discussion Threads

[grupo guitarlumber] 25/7/2017 17:38

LONDON (Agefi-Dow Jones) - European oil companies with refining operations are benefiting from higher margins in this sector, due to seasonal increases in gasoline demand and refinery maintenance operations. This margin growth should not last, warns Barclays. Refining margins averaged $ 5.5 per barrel last week, the highest level since September 2015 and an increase of $ 4 a barrel over one year. Barclays attributes this growth to an exceptionally tense fuel market, seasonal gasoline demand growth and a rise in diesel driven by supply disruptions. Barclays does not think the rise will last more than a few weeks, but continues to favor groups present in refining because of their cash flow, which supports dividends. The bank has an overweight recommendation for BP with a target price of 675 pence, Royal Dutch Shell (2,750 pence), Total (60 euros), OMV (54 euros) and Repsol (20 euros).

[la forge] 22/7/2017 08:35

4081/5000
Total, TechnipFMC, Vallourec, CGG: is it time to buy?


The trend remains uncertain on oil, favoring the strongest companies. (© DR)



By Johann Corric

Published on 13/07/2017 at 11:55 AM - Updated on 13/07/2017 at 11:56
Oil is recovering somewhat, and industry groups will soon publish their first half results. The opportunity to place oneself? Rather to be selective ...

Since a low of more than a year touched on June 21 last at 45 dollars, the price of black gold has recovered by 6.7%. However, it still loses 18% since the beginning of the year.

On July 12, the US Energy Agency (EIA) said gold stocks had dropped by 7.6 million barrels over the week ended July 7. This is the second consecutive week of decline. Information likely to carry the course of Brent.
Read also



Total: a giant that does not lack resources

However, at the same time, the country's crude oil production is recovering. After surprisingly dropping 100,000 barrels per day on the 23 June score, it has since recovered 147,000 barrels per day.

A mixed assessment by the International Energy Agency, which has just indicated that the overall supply of black gold has risen by 720,000 barrels per day in June while raising its demand estimate for the whole of the world 'year. It is now expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day, to 98 million from 97.9 million previously.
Between $ 45 and $ 50

The context remains very uncertain. If we persist in believing that the risk of seeing the price of black gold falling permanently under $ 45 is low, it could on the other hand find it difficult to exceed the 50 dollars in the short term.

Such a prospect is not very pleasing for the players in the sector. We therefore recommend that you be selective.

The three least solid groups, Bourbon, CGG and Vallourec are to be avoided at the moment. The first is shifted in the cycle and could delay to straighten the bar. The seismic specialist, CGG, for its part announces an advance in its restructuring program but this one will take several months. Vallourec is the most attractive of the three for its exposure to American oil but its activities in the rest of the world continue to suffer.
Total and TechnipFMC to be preferred

On the other hand, you can strengthen your positions on TechnipFMC and Total. The first has fallen sharply on the stock market since the beginning of the year. A little too much in our opinion.

The French-American group will release its half-yearly accounts on 26 July. The backlog will be particularly scrutinized. Following the important contract awarded to Eni and the recent announcements by the Norwegian para-airline Aker Solutions - which showed better than expected results and evoked "signs of recovery" - a pleasant surprise can be played on this occasion.

The Total share on its side has moved away from our target price of 51 euros and now has sufficient potential to be bought. The publication of the half-year results, scheduled for 27 July, could act as a catalyst. In recent quarters, French has regularly beaten the consensus of analysts.

Finally, the group led by Patrick Pouyanné recently announced interesting developments for the future. He signed a long-awaited contract with Iran and formalized a 25-year partnership with the national company Qatar Petroleum.

[waldron] 05/7/2017 12:03

356/5000
While the UBS broker reiterated its recommendation to buy and its price target of 50 euros after the announcement of Total's return to the Iranian market, as part of the first project of this scale signed Since the reduction of the embargo imposed on the country, Deutsche Bank adjusts its target price from 52 to 50 euros on the file.

[maywillow] 02/7/2017 13:46

Iran to sign gas deal with France's Total and China's CNPC



Iran says French energy giant Total is to sign a contract worth close to $5bn (£3.8bn) to develop an offshore gas field in the Gulf.

It is the biggest foreign deal since most economic sanctions against the country were lifted in 2016.

Oil ministry officials said the deal to develop the South Pars gas field would be signed on Monday in Tehran, with Total getting a 50.1% stake.

China's CNPC would hold a 30% stake and Iran's Petropars 19.9%.

Total was planning to sign the contract several months ago, but decided to wait and see if the Trump administration in the US would re-impose sanctions on Tehran.

What lifting Iran sanctions means for world markets

The offshore field, which is shared between Iran and Qatar, was first developed in the 1990s.

Total was one of the biggest investors in Iran before international sanctions were imposed in 2006 over suspicions the country was trying to develop nuclear arms.

Last month Total's boss Patrick Pouyanne indicated the firm was ready to make an initial $1bn investment in Iran, the third largest producer in oil body Opec.

[la forge] 28/6/2017 06:03

Risks

TOTAL conducts its operations in more than 130 countries across five continents including Africa where a significant portion of the company's oil reserves and production are located. Risks include embargoes, expropriation of assets, foreign exchange rate volatility, terrorism and political and civil unrest among others.

The company competes with other oil majors like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, British Petroleum. Increasing competition could impact revenues, profitability and total return to shareholders.

Asset acquisitions are part of TOTAL's strategy to grow earnings. The company might find it difficult to find and execute on accretive transactions leading to a flat earnings growth rate and lower share prices.

The price of crude oil should it fall too low, perhaps below $40 a barrel, and remain that low for a long period time, the company may find it difficult to support dividends and capital expenditures at the current rates.

While I noted only a few risks, investors should review the company's SEC filings to get a sense for all the risks inherent in investing in the company. In addition to reading about the risks, a technical price chart should be viewed for assessment of downside risks.

Technical price chart

The two-year price chart shows the stock is in an uptrend depicted by the up-sloping yellow lines from left to right, and the price is contained within the two-standard deviation channel (outer yellow lines). The middle line is the linear regression line where equilibrium price could be considered. Prices above or below the linear regression line may be considered to be from overzealous buyers or sellers. Currently, sellers have outnumbered buyers in the short term since the middle of May for these shares.

The price action on the chart is considered bullish since the 50-day moving average line (blue) is above the 200-day moving average line (red). The lower yellow line at $44 may be considered as an investor's downside risk potential and may act as a support for the share price unless fundamentals for the company deteriorate or global economic risks emerge. Although the technical picture is fine right now, the penetration of the lower yellow line is a warning sign that a change in trend may be near.

Source: TDAmeritrade (my pink support line)

Conclusion

The near 20% drop in crude oil prices has provided a price discount on the shares of TOTAL. The time to buy crude oil correlated energy shares is when the price of oil drops sharply. Since the price of oil cannot be predicted on a regular basis, an educated guess is about the best most of us can do. I am in the camp that suggests oil will return to around $50 over the mid-term which should cover capital expenditures and dividend expectations, and I expect TOTAL shares to appreciate according to the valuation studies noted earlier.

Investors uncomfortable with oil price volatility, an outlook for lower oil prices, a lumpy dividend, or intolerance of tax implications for these shares might look elsewhere.

However, investors seeking high current income and energy exposure can consider the company's attractive: balance sheet health; diversified revenue stream; dividend coverage ratio; high dividend yield; performance against peers; estimated earnings growth; valuation; and the bullish technical chart pattern as reasons to support a buy decision.

I plan on following the company and providing updates in future articles. If you would like to follow along, please hit the follow button on top of this page for real-time and email alerts on new postings.

[the grumpy old men] 24/6/2017 10:41

Running Out of Time to Reduce Stockpiles in 2017, Statoil Says
By Giacomo Tognini
and Sheela Tobben
23 June 2017, 22:22 CEST

Oil prices will recover but unclear when, says chief economist
OPEC cuts unlikely to correct market under current conditions

The oil market is running out of time for crude inventories to show a significant drop in 2017, according to Statoil ASA’s chief economist.

When it comes, though, the correction "will be relatively rapid," said Eirik Waerness in an interview at Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

Analysts have been surprised by the intransigence of global oil stockpiles, according to Waerness. That’s because the focus has been mostly on U.S. shale, missing the "flow of oil from projects that were decided back in 2010” and now are coming online. Production is even increasing in the North Sea, where analysts expected a decline, he said.

This makes it more difficult for OPEC to increase prices, according to Waerness.

"At some point, impact from an ebbing flow of projects will slow down," he said. "Patience is the name of the game. Current prices are unsustainably low. Producers are not making enough to cover production cost."

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, closed at $43.01 a barrel on Friday. Prices in New York have declined 19.8 percent this year, dropping more than 20 percent below the 2017 high on Wednesday to slip into a bear market amid an ongoing supply glut. Drillers added rigs to the shale patch for a record 23rd straight week, according to Baker Hughes Inc. data reported Friday.

Unlike the International Energy Agency, Statoil expects oil demand to peak in 2030 under its central scenario. That is too late to meet the temperature target outlined in the Paris Climate agreement.

"Peak oil has to happen extremely rapidly, by 2022, or we won’t reach that target," said Waerness.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal.

[grupo] 19/6/2017 15:49

Total receives a boost from Iran
Le Revenu on 19/06/2017 at 13:01
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A Total oil platform. (© Total)

Shaken by the depreciation of the price of black gold in recent days, the oil giant has found a reason to rejoice on Monday, June 19. Iran has announced that it hopes to sign a contract with Total in the next few weeks to develop phase 11 of the South Pars gas field.

On May 26th, French CEO Patrick Pouyanné had already indicated that he intended to conclude the agreement "before the summer".

The two sides signed a Memorandum of Understanding on this issue last November. Total is expected to own 50.1% of Petropars (19.9%), a subsidiary of the Iranian national company NIOC, and China's CNPC (30%).

The development of the field will require an investment of $ 6 billion.
Dividend in danger?

The finalization of such a contract would allow French to be the first Western oil company to set foot in Iran. This project is one of the ten major developments that Total intends to validate over the next 18 months.

This announcement is timely. The oil sector suffers from the depreciation of black gold and the concerns of observers who doubt OPEC's ability to counter the rising production of shale oil from the United States.

A maintenance of the price of Brent under 50