Total Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 08/11/2020 14:35

Conclusion and Technical Analysis

European oil giants like Total, BP Plc. and Royal Dutch Shell have expressed a keen interest in renewables lately and pledged a significant CapEx for the coming decades as alternatives to oil.

Recently, BP CEO Bernard Looney presented the new "green" or "clean energy" strategy to the market. BP plans to cut its oil and gas production by 40% by 2030.

However, while the company expects to reduce its oil production to 55% from its level in 2019, natural gas production will increase from 40% to 50%.

This shift will result in a net increase in the company's oil and gas production, even if 15% of the sales in 2030 will come from "clean energy" and electricity, up from 5% in 2019.

It is the main reason why the company seems to be best suited for a long-term investment, in my opinion.

Technical Analysis

TOT forms a descending broadening wedge pattern with line resistance between $33 and $33.30 and line support below $28.

The short-term strategy is to take a 25% profit between $33 and $37 (Bullish) and accumulate again on any weakness below $30.

TOT is highly dependent on oil prices, and any action should be taken after analysis of the overall oil market.

[waldron] 06/11/2020 17:37

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 39.55 -2.85%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.08 -2.63%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.07 -0.45%
(WTI) 37.235 USD -3.07%

FTSE 100
5,910.02 +0.07%
Dow Jones
28,388.37 -0.01%
CAC 40
4,960.88 -0.46%
SBF 120
3,921.18 -0.49%
Euro STOXX 50
3,204.05 -0.30%
DAX
12,480.02 -0.70%
Ftse Mib
19,688.07 -0.22%



Eni
6.542 -0.82%


Total
27.63 +0.45%


Engie
11.035 -1.87%

Orange
9.426 -1.46%


Bp
199.86 -0.39%

Vodafone
105.04 -1.00%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,008 +0.02%



Royal Dutch Shell B
970 +0.30%

Tullow Oil (TLW)
18.105 -0.265 (-1.44%)

[ariane] 05/11/2020 12:48

Shell to acquire stake in Transkei, Algoa blocks offshore South Africa

Oil & GasUpstreamOffshore

By NS Energy Staff Writer 05 Nov 2020

The company will acquire 50% working interest and operatorship in the two exploration blocks
oil-industry-3272673_640

Impact to sell stake in Transkei and Algoa blocks offshore South Africa. (Credit: wasi1370 from Pixabay.)

Impact Africa, a wholly-owned subsidiary of African-focused exploration company Impact Oil & Gas, has signed an agreement with BG International to farm-out a 50% stake in Transkei and Algoa exploration blocks, offshore South Africa.

As per the terms of the deal, BG International’s parent company, Royal Dutch Shell will acquire 50% working interest and operatorship in the two exploration blocks.

Shell will also have an option to purchase an additional 5% working stake should the joint venture decide to move into the third renewal period that is expected to happen in 2024.

According to Impact, though the Transkei & Algoa blocks are part of the same licence, they have different geological settings.

Located in the South Outeniqua Basin, Algoa block is in a short distance east of Block 11B/12B and contains Brulpadda gas condensate discovery.

Recently, Total announced a further significant gas condensate discovery in the block, after drilling the Luiperd-1X exploration well.

The Transkei block is located north-east of Algoa in the Natal Trough Basin. Impact has discovered highly material prospectivity associated with several large submarine fan bodies at Natal Trough Basin.

Impact Oil & Gas CEO Siraj Ahmed said: “We are delighted to have secured a farm-out partner of Shell’s calibre, highlighting the significant value potential of our exceptional South African exploration portfolio.

“Shell joins the Transkei & Algoa licence at a very exciting time for exploration drilling in South Africa.

“They bring substantial exploration expertise, with particular understanding of the potential of offshore South Africa, and an agreed strategy to accelerate the work programme to build upon the considerable work already undertaken by Impact and the previous JV partnership.”
Impact and Shell to acquire 6,000km² of 3D seismic data

The transaction is subject to customary conditions including the Government of South Africa approval.

Upon completion of the deal, both Impact and Shell are planning to acquire more than 6,000km² of 3D seismic data during the first available seismic window.

[ariane] 04/11/2020 07:26

(Boursier.com) - In a letter received by the AMF on 30 October, BlackRock, Inc., acting on behalf of clients and funds under its management, declared that on 29 October it had crossed below the 5% threshold of Total SE's voting rights. It holds, on behalf of these clients and funds, 137,027,976 Total SE shares representing the same number of voting rights, i.e. 5.16% of the share capital and 4.88% of the voting rights of this company.

This threshold crossing results from a decrease in the number of Total SE shares held as collateral.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[ariane] 02/11/2020 14:57

Total : maintains the third 2020 interim dividend at EUR0.66 share


0
11/02/2020 | 02:46pm GMT

Paris - The Board of Directors met on October 29, 2020, and declared the distribution of the third 2020 interim dividend at EUR0.66/share, stable compared to the first and second 2020 interim dividends.

About Total

Total is a broad energy company that produces and markets fuels, natural gas and electricity. Our 100,000 employees are committed to better energy that is safer, more affordable, cleaner and accessible to as many people as possible. Active in more than 130 countries, our ambition is to become the responsible energy major.

[ariane] 02/11/2020 14:53

11/02/2020 | 09:08am GMT
long trade
Live
Entry price : 26.15€ | Target : 31.3€ | Stop-loss : 24€ | Potential : 19.69%
The recent downturn has taken Total SE shares close to a medium term support level around 25.13 EUR. The timing for a long trade in the stock appears good.
Investors have an opportunity to buy the stock and target the € 31.3.
Total SE : Total SE : Underpinned by a support level
Summary

In view of fundamental criteria, the company is among low performers as far as mid or long-term investment strategy is concerned.
For a short-term investment strategy, the company has poor fundamentals.


Strengths

The share is getting closer to its long-term support in weekly data, at EUR 25, which offers good timing for buyers.
Graphically speaking, the timing seems perfect for purchasing the stock close to the EUR 25.13 support.
As regards fundamentals, the enterprise value to sales ratio is at 0.95 for the current period. Therefore, the company is undervalued.
This company will be of major interest to investors in search of a high dividend stock.
Analysts covering this company mostly recommend stock overweighting or purchase.
The average target price set by analysts covering the stock is above current prices and offers a tremendous appreciation potential.


Weaknesses

According to Standard & Poor's' forecast, revenue growth prospects are expected to be very low for the next fiscal years.
Financial statements have repeatedly disappointed market stakeholders. Most often, they were below expectations.
The company's sales previsions for the coming years have been revised downwards, which foreshadows another slowdown in business.
For the last twelve months, the trend in sales revisions has been clearly going down, which emphasizes downgraded expectations from the analysts.
For the last four months, earnings estimated by analysts have been revised downwards with respect to the next two years.
For the past year, analysts have significantly revised downwards their profit estimates.

[gibbs1] 31/10/2020 15:00

BP vs. Total: Which Oil Company Is Better Positioned for a Green Energy Transition?
Two oil giants are making big bets about the future. Which approach is the better option for long-term investors?
Reuben Gregg Brewer
Reuben Gregg Brewer
(TMFReubenGBrewer)
Oct 31, 2020 at 10:35AM
Author Bio

European oil giants BP (NYSE:BP) and Total (NYSE:TOT) have both taken stands on clean energy, with each pledging its support for alternatives to oil. However, there's a notable difference in the business trajectories these integrated energy giants are taking. Here's a look at what the companies are doing, and what it could mean for investors.
The quick change artist

In August, BP cut its dividend in half. For dividend investors that was terrible news, but it was, to some degree, a sign of the times. The economic closures used to slow the spread of COVID-19 earlier in 2020 led to a massive drop in demand for oil and natural gas. With excess supply piling up in storage, energy prices plunged, and BP's top and bottom lines went along for the ride. However, there was more to this cut than meets the eye.
Two hands holding blocks spelling out the words RISK and REWARD.

Image source: Getty Images.

Around the same time, BP announced it had a new business strategy. Basically, the global energy giant is shifting toward clean energy. That keeps it in line with current feelings toward carbon fuels as the world grapples with fears around climate change. However, it's a big change for an oil company to go green. For starters, BP intends to cut its oil and gas production by 40% by 2030, less than 10 years from now. Meanwhile, it wants to make a 10-fold increase in the number of electric vehicle charging points it owns, and a 20-fold increase in the amount of clean energy it produces. By 2030 40% of the company's capital spending is likely to be dedicated to low-carbon and clean-energy businesses.

This is a "jump in with both feet" approach. If something goes wrong along the way, there's not much fallback room. The problem with this is that BP is one of the most heavily leveraged oil majors, with its roughly 1.1-times debt to equity ratio above those of all of its major peers. So it doesn't have much wiggle room. And it's counting on the oil business, which it will be shrinking, to fund its clean energy push. If oil's price recovery is slower than expected or there's lingering industry weakness, it could be hard for BP to generate the cash it needs to cover its debt load and its new business plan.
Easy does it

Total is looking to make big changes as well, but it's taking a drastically different approach as it looks to shift toward cleaner energy alternatives. It is projecting that its oil production will decline from 55% of sales in 2019 to 35% in 2030. However, natural gas production will increase from 40% to 50%. Natural gas is cleaner than oil and is viewed as a key transition fuel as the world reduces its carbon footprint. That said, Total's overall sales are projected to be higher, so oil and gas sales will actually be up slightly over that time frame -- not lower, as BP is planning. The remaining 15% of sales in 2030 will come from clean energy and electricity, up from 5% in 2019.

That 5% figure is noteworthy, since Total has been more consistent in its investment in clean energy and electricity. For example, it has owned a stake in SunPower since 2011. BP, meanwhile, tried to rebrand as "Beyond Petroleum" at one point, signifying a shift toward clean energy. But it ended up dropping the idea and selling much of what it acquired in what proved to be an ill-conceived business plan.

Total's capital spending plan is more nuanced as well. Between 2015 and 2019 Total spent about 10% of its capital budget on clean energy. It will up that to 15% between 2021 and 2025, and then 20% between 2025 and 2030. The goal is still to use the legacy oil business to fund a transition to clean energy, but to do it gradually and without materially shrinking what has historically been a very profitable segment. The big change in the oil business is that Total intends to refocus around its lowest-cost oil and gas operations so it can better compete in a world with low energy prices.

BP Debt to Equity Ratio Chart

BP Debt to Equity Ratio data by YCharts

While Total also has a relatively heavy debt load, with debt to equity sitting at 0.77 times, the approach it is taking provides more wiggle room should things not pan out as expected. And it can always speed up its transition should it want or need to. It's a more balanced approach that conservative, long-term investors will likely find appealing.
Which company is right?

Nobody on Wall Street has a crystal ball, so it's impossible to know if BP's plan to effectively go all in or Total's slower shift will work out better. However, there is a fairly obvious risk/reward trade-off in each approach. If everything works as planned, BP will end up a big winner, and Total will look like it's moving relatively slowly. But it's worth noting that Total will still be moving in the right direction. U.S. peers ExxonMobil and Chevron are sticking with oil for now, which some might see as short-sighted.

If the transition doesn't play out as BP is expecting, it could end up flat-footed and behind the pack because it is materially shrinking its oil and gas business. BP isn't exactly taking an all-or-nothing stance, but weak returns in the clean energy space could be a huge drag on the company's overall results. Total, on the other hand, will likely be able to take some setbacks in stride, since it is basically looking to maintain and upgrade its oil and gas business while still building a clean energy operation. For conservative investors, Total's approach looks more appealing.

And it's worth noting that Total believes it can continue to support its hefty 10% dividend yield and fund its business transition as long as oil prices stay around $40 a barrel (though they've recently sunk below that level, so there is still dividend risk here). Still, the line in the sand aside, Total should be appealing to dividend investors looking to invest in the out-of-favor energy sector, with a bit of a clean energy hedge thrown in as a bonus.

[waldron] 30/10/2020 17:27

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 37.53 -1.60%
Gasoline NYMEX 1.02 -0.71%
Natural Gas NYMEX 3.30 -0.57%
WTI 35.315 USD -2.40%


FTSE 100
5,577.27 -0.08%
Dow Jones
26,365.21 -1.10%
CAC 40
4,594.24 +0.54%
SBF 120
3,640.89 +0.46%
Euro STOXX 50
2,958.21 +0.13%
DAX
11,556.48 -0.36%
Ftse Mib
17,958.69 +0.48%
Índice Bovespa
94,372.62 -2.29%
S&P ASX 200
5,927.6 -0.55%


Eni
6.011 +1.57%

Total
25.82 +2.75%



Engie
10.385 +1.12%

Orange
9.63 +0.31%

Bp
196.6 +1.62%

Vodafone
103 -0.48%

Royal Dutch Shell A
965.4 +3.51%


Royal Dutch Shell B
929 +3.42%

Tullow Oil (TLW)
19.865 0.69 (3.60%)

[waldron] 30/10/2020 16:09

Total SE reported third-quarter results on Friday. Here's what we watched:



PROFIT: The French energy major registered a quarterly net profit of $202 million, down from $2.80 billion in the year-earlier period. This marked an improvement from the previous quarter, when Total booked a net loss of $8.37 billion. On an adjusted basis, profit was $848 million, beating a FactSet-compiled consensus that had forecast the figure at $472.6 million.



PRODUCTION: Hydrocarbon production fell 11% on year to 2.72 million barrels of oil-equivalent a day. A FactSet-provided consensus had forecast the figure at 2.80 million boe/d. The company said it expects production to be below 2.9 million barrels a day for the full year.



WHAT WE WATCHED:

-MIXED RECOVERY: Oil prices improved in the quarter, supported by strong discipline within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and recovering demand for road fuels. However, refining margins suffered from excess production capacity and weak demand, particularly for distillates, as a result of a drop in air transport.

-DIVIDEND: Total kept its third interim dividend payment at 0.66 euros ($0.77) a share and reaffirmed the dividend sustainability in a $40-a-barrel Brent environment. "Total's relative outperformance versus peers in 2020 probably comes down to balance sheet, management credibility and the starting point of not having a ridiculously high payout ratio like key peers, who have been forced to cut dividends," analysts at Citi said.

-NET INVESTMENTS: The company cut its net investments for the full year to less than $13 billion--an amount that includes $2 billion for renewables and electricity--,but said major projects won't be affected by the reduction.



Write to Giulia Petroni at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 30, 2020 10:56 ET (14:56 GMT)

[waldron] 30/10/2020 15:46

WORLDOIL.COM


Total Q3 profits top forecasts, says $40 oil can work
By Francois de Beaupuy on 10/30/2020

PARIS (Bloomberg) - Total continued to ride out tough times for the oil industry by posting third-quarter profit that exceeded the highest analyst estimate, paying down debt and maintaining a generous dividend.

The French energy giant, which has fared better than its rivals through the severe downturn caused by the coronavirus, still offered some cause for concern. The company boasted of its resilience to oil at $40 in a week when prices slumped below that level as the second wave of the pandemic took hold.

The oil market remains uncertain and dependent on the speed of the global recovery, Total said in a statement Friday. Still, the company’s results were a bright spot in a gloomy industry. Third-quarter adjusted net income was $848 million, down 72% from a year earlier but well above the average analyst estimate of $478 million.

“Total is not immune to sector headwinds, and has similar exposures to peers, however the balance sheet remains stronger,” RBC analyst Biraj Borkhataria wrote in a note. “Total has managed to find the balance between growing its low-carbon business, sustaining its core business and maintaining its dividend.”

So far this week, Total’s European peers Repsol SA and BP Plc eked out small profits, while Italy’s Eni SpA and Austria’s OMV AG said they lost money in the quarter. On Thursday, U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. said it will slash its global workforce by 15% to adjust to low prices.

While Royal Dutch Shell Plc also reported better-than-expected earnings, the Anglo-Dutch company is struggling to match its French rival’s appeal to investors after slashing its dividend in April. Total is the only European major to leave its payout unscathed this year.

Total shares rose 2.1% to 25.65 euros at 9:43 a.m. on Friday in Paris, while the country’s benchmark index dropped slightly.

Low Costs

The company is benefiting from spending cuts initiated since the previous oil-industry downturn five years ago and investments in low-cost barrels. Its upstream operating expenditure has dropped by half since 2014 to $5 a barrel, which Total says is the lowest among the five supermajors.

Total’s gearing, the ratio of net debt to capital, was 22% on Sept. 30, down from 23.6% three months earlier and well below the level of many of its peers. Debt-adjusted cash flow was $4.3 billion, down 41% from a year earlier.

To weather the continuing downturn, Total cut its net capital expenditure forecast for this year by $1 billion to less than $13 billion. It also said it will surpass its $1 billion savings target for operating expenses.

LNG Rebound

Most of the company’s profit in the third quarter came from oil and gas production and gasoline sales at service stations. Total’s liquefied natural gas business was hit by plunging prices and its refineries posted a loss because of weak demand, especially for jet fuel.

“The group benefited during the third quarter from a more favorable environment, with oil prices above $40 a barrel thanks to strong OPEC+ discipline as well as the demand recovery for petroleum products for road transportation,̶1; Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said in the statement.

The company expects that the increase in oil prices over the second and third quarters will have a positive impact on its average LNG selling price in the fourth quarter. Refining margins have rebounded since the start of the fourth quarter, though remain fragile given the low demand for jet fuel, Total said.

[waldron] 30/10/2020 09:44

jan/04
2021

Ex-Dividend date for the 2nd 2020 interim Dividend


2nd interim dividend 0.66 €/share EX January 4, 2021 PAY January 11, 2021


march/25
2021

Ex-Dividend date for the 3rd 2020 interim Dividend

[waldron] 30/10/2020 08:58

platts


Total's production slammed by OPEC+ cuts, but finances show 'resilience' in Q3

Author Nick Coleman Editor Debiprasad Nayak Commodity Natural Gas, Oil

Highlights

Liquids output falls 16% on year on international cuts

Low-cost operations put gearing well below peers

Q4 refining margins improve but still 'fragile'

London — Total's oil and gas production dropped 11% on the year in the third quarter, to 2.72 million b/d of oil equivalent and it forecast full-year output below 2.9 million boe/d on the back of OPEC+ cuts, as its third-quarter results showed financial improvement Oct. 30.

In a results statement, Total said its Q3 production had been affected by OPEC+ cuts in Angola, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and the UAE as well as voluntary reductions in Canada and disruption in Libya, noting in particular the "reinforcement" of cuts by Nigeria.

The company's liquids production was down 16% on the year at 1.44 million b/d, although it noted OPEC+ cuts were offset by increases from the UK's Culzean gas field, Norway's Johan Sverdrup, Brazil's Iara and Italy's Tempa Rossa.

In the context of strong OPEC+ compliance and lower North American production, Total "anticipates full-year 2020 production below 2.9 million boe/d," compared with 3.01 million boe/d in 2019, it said.

However, CEO Patrick Pouyanne noted a "more favorable" business environment, and the company highlighted its July sale of the UK's Lindsey refinery, as well as its conversion of the Grandpuits refinery to a "zero-oil" producer of biofuels and bioplastics.

"The oil market environment remains uncertain and will depend notably on the speed of the global demand recovery, affected by the COVID-19 pandemic," Total said.

Europe's largest refiner added that margins in the region had recovered in the fourth quarter, averaging above $10/mt, but "remain fragile given the low demand for jet fuel that weighs on the valuation of all distillates."

It added that it anticipated a positive impact from improved fourth quarter LNG prices, expected to be over $4/MMBtu, as a result of the oil price recovery over the previous two quarters.

Total reported an adjusted profit of $850 million, down 72% on the year, and reduced its debt gearing to 22% from the end of the previous quarter, making it again the least indebted of the European majors by far.

It reported an overall profit of $202 million, impacted by relatively modest impairments of $293 million, compared with an overall loss of $8.4 billion in Q2, impacted by over $8 billion of impairments.

Noting the company's low cost of upstream production, of just $5/boe, Total said the upstream division "carries" its corporate performance.

"The group is once again demonstrating its resilience thanks to its integrated model, by generating debt-adjusted cash flow of more than $4 billion [and] reducing gearing to 22% given its investment and cost discipline," Pouyanne said.

[waldron] 30/10/2020 08:40

Total Says It‘s Doing Fine at $40 Oil as Profit Beats Estimates

Francois de Beaupuy, Bloomberg News









(Bloomberg) --

Total SE continued to ride out tough times for the oil industry by posting third-quarter profit that exceeded the highest analyst estimate, paying down debt and maintaining a generous dividend.

The French energy giant, which has fared better than its rivals through the severe downturn caused by the coronavirus, still offered some cause for concern. The company boasted of its resilience to oil at $40 in a week when prices slumped below that level as the second wave of the pandemic took hold.

The oil market remains uncertain and dependent on the speed of the global recovery, Total said. Still, the company’s results were a bright spot in a gloomy oil industry. Third-quarter adjusted net income was $848 million, down 72% from a year earlier but well above the average analyst estimate of $478 million.

“The group benefited during the third quarter from a more favorable environment, with oil prices above $40 a barrel thanks to strong OPEC+ discipline as well as the demand recovery for petroleum products for road transportation,” Total Chief Executive Officer Patrick Pouyanne said in a statement on Friday.

So far this week, Total’s European peers Repsol SA and BP Plc eked out small profits, while Italy’s Eni SpA and Austria’s OMV AG said they lost money in the quarter.

While Royal Dutch Shell Plc also reported better-than-expected earnings, the company is struggling to match its French rival’s appeal to investors after slashing its dividend in April. Total is the only European major to leave its payout unscathed this year.

Total’s gearing, the ratio of net debt to capital, was 22% on Sept. 30, down from 23.6% three months earlier and well below the level of many of its peers. Debt-adjusted cash flow was $4.3 billion, down 41% from a year earlier.

Most of the company’s profit came from oil and gas production and gasoline sales at service stations. Total’s liquefied natural gas business was hit by plunging prices and its refineries posted a loss because of weak demand, especially for jet fuel.

To weather the continuing downturn, Total cut its net capital expenditure forecast for this year by $1 billion to less than $13 billion. It also said it will surpass its $1 billion savings target for operating expenses.