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[sarkasm] 25/11/2017 17:30

BusinessMarkets

Future of energy stocks rests on Russia as OPEC meeting looms
Originally published November 25, 2017 at 8:00 am

Russia has added suspense to Thursday’s OPEC meeting by sending mixed signals about its position on the extension of a deal on production cuts. If it’s not extended, energy stocks could sell off.
By Ksenia Galouchko
Bloomberg News

The immediate future of the world’s worst-performing equity sector hinges on a Thursday meeting of major oil producers, where Russia’s stance on the extension of production cuts could be a deal-breaker.

Even after a recent jump in the price of oil helped the MSCI World Energy Index lessen some of this year’s losses, it’s still the biggest laggard globally with a retreat of 3.6 percent as investors have worried about the commodity’s outlook.

Russia has added suspense to Thursday’s meeting by sending mixed signals about its position on the extension of the deal.

If the OPEC meeting fails to prolong production curbs past March, brokerage Drexel Hamilton warns that the unwinding of record net long positions in world oil markets could be “quite painful” for exploration and production companies.


“The correction could be more serious than expected if investors decide to sell their positions despite the danger of increasing tensions in the Middle East,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at MPPM EK in Eppstein, Germany, who expects a continuation of production cuts.

If major oil producers fail to agree to the deal’s extension on Thursday, oil prices could drop by $5 a barrel before the year-end, triggering a sell-off in energy stocks, which will need to readjust to lower crude-level expectations, according to Jason Kenney, an analyst at Banco Santande.

In any case, investors have priced in OPEC’s constraint agreement lasting through mid-2018 and may use the meeting’s result to take profits, he said.

“Russia is playing it canny and will continue to monitor the state of the oil market before actually committing to continued supply restraint beyond end-March,” Kenney said by email. “I see little reason for oil to outperform a potential rising broader market in 2018. In the absence of a significantly stronger oil price, the oil sector is likely to remain very much in transition.”

Still, some analysts remain optimistic about the energy sector, with Credit Suisse saying it sees “more attractive” risk-rewards in oil and gas equities than in the oil commodity because of valuations, positioning and sentiment.


Ksenia Galouchko

THE SEATTLE TIMES

[waldron] 24/11/2017 15:36

23 Nov, 2017 Home International Economic

Alexander Bueso
WebFG News
24 Nov, 2017 15:08
Shell set to benefit from long-term Asian demand for LNG, Barclays says
ben-van-beurden-chief-executive-officer-of-royal-dutch-shell-petrole-gaz-energies-fossiles
Royal Dutch Shell 'A'
2,338.00
15:17:46 24/11/17
-0.04%
-1.00
Royal Dutch Shell 'B'
2,384.00
15:17:44 24/11/17
0.00%
0.00
FTSE 100
7,404.92
15:17:46 24/11/17
-0.17%
-12.32
Oil & Gas Producers
8,562.41
14:25 24/11/17
-0.08%
-6.94
FTSE 350
4,119.91
15:17:46 24/11/17
-0.17%
-6.97
FTSE All-Share
4,069.18
15:17:47 24/11/17
-0.15%
-6.25
Energy Producers
0.00
16:17 25/09/06
0.00%
0.00

Barclays reiterated its 'overweight' stance and 2,850p target price on shares of Royal Dutch Shell, pointing to the solid outlook for Asian demand of liquified natural gas that the broker said should support long-run prices and provide better trade opportunities.

Over the next two years, new project start-ups in the US and Australia would keep LNG markets slightly oversupplied, capping prices in the near-term.

However, in the long-run, from 2020, Barclays estimated LNG would again exceed supplies, making them more positive on prices.

Reinforcing that trend, Asia, which accounted for 70% of demand, was seen continuing to show a preference for keeping natural gas in its energy mix.

"This in turn should support long-run prices and provide better trade opportunities to companies. Shell and Total look to us best positioned for this trend with their exposure to LNG."

[sarkasm] 24/11/2017 13:02

extract from offshore technology.com

24 November 2017
News
Deals this week: Total, Ineos UK Sns, ONGC Videsh
Share

Total SA and Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) have agreed to sell a 10% stake in Block 11B/12B in the Outeniqua Basin, offshore South Africa, to Main Street 1549 Proprietary Limited, a part of Africa Energy Corp.

The transaction involves the sale of 5% interest owned by each company.

The purchase consideration will be funded by Africa Energy through either cash in hand or from third-party sources.

Located 175km off the southern coast of South Africa, the Block 11B/12B lies in water depths ranging between 200m and 2,000m.

The block is currently owned by Total (50%) and CNRL (50%). Upon completion of the transaction, the ownership of the block will be held by Total (45%), CNRL (45%), and Main Street 1549 Proprietary (10%).

[sarkasm] 23/11/2017 08:58

Synthesis

In a general way and in a short-term perspective, the company presents an interesting fundamental situation.

Strong points

The company enjoys attractive valuation levels with a relatively low EV / CA ratio compared to other listed companies around the world.
With a P / E of 13.27 for the current year and 12.74 for the 2018 financial year, the valuation levels of the security are very cheap in terms of multiple earnings.
The company is part of the yield values ​​with a relatively large expected dividend.
Analysts are clearly optimistic about the revenue outlook and have recently revised up their estimates in terms of business growth.
Analysts are positive on the title. The average consensus recommends buying or overweighting the value.

Weak points

The group's publications have often disappointed in the past, with relatively large negative deviations from expectations.
The trend of turnover revisions over the past year is clearly bearish; Sales forecasts have been revised downwards by analysts.

[sarkasm] 18/11/2017 08:36

24/11/17 | 13:00 Shareholders meeting

[waldron] 17/11/2017 17:20

Total: Strong Q3 Performance And Dividend Create Investor Appeal
Nov. 17, 2017 12:05 PM ET|
About: TOTAL S.A. (TOT)
Power Hedge
Power Hedge
Macro, energy, alternative energy, contrarian
(2,236 followers)
Summary

Total recently reported very solid Q3 2017 results.

The company showed both QoQ and YoY improvements in nearly every financial metric.

The company recently acquired a stake in one of the largest oil fields in the world and increased its production at Kashagan, giving it much more oil to sell.

The company pays a strong dividend and has a history of maintaining or increasing it for the past thirty years.

Overall, Total appears to offer quite an appealing opportunity for investment and further research.

On Friday, Oct. 27, 2017, integrated French oil and gas supermajor Total SA (TOT) reported its Q3 2017 earnings results. Overall, these results were quite impressive as the company both beat the expectations of its analysts and showed relatively strong improvements year-over-year in nearly all aspects of its business. While this is not necessarily a sign that the oil and gas industry has finally begun to turn the corner, the string of relatively strong reports that we have been seeing recently certainly show that the industry has adapted to the current pricing environment. Total is the latest example of this.

As many of my long-time followers are no doubt already aware, it is my usual practice to share the highlights from a company's earnings report before delving into an analysis of those results. This is because these highlights serve to provide background for the remainder of the article and provide a framework for the resultant analysis. Therefore, here are the highlights from Total's third quarter 2017 earnings results:

Total achieved an adjusted operating income of $3.062 billion in the third quarter of 2017. This represents an increase over the $2.748 billion and the $2.332 billion that the company reported in the second quarter of 2017 and the third quarter of 2016 respectively.
Total achieved an average combined production of 2.581 mboe per day during the third quarter. This represents an approximate production increase of 6% year-over-year.
Total managed to achieve an average realized price of $52.10 per produced barrel of Brent crude, representing a 14% year-over-year increase.
The company took over as operator of the giant Al-Shaheen field in Qatar and announced the acquisition of Maersk (OTCPK:AMKAF). These two items will serve to increase its growth going forward.
Total achieved a reported net income of $2.7 billion in the third quarter of 2017, representing a 29% increase year-over-year.

Undoubtedly, one of the items that will most appeal to an investor in Total that is perusing these highlights is that Total's earnings climbed fairly significantly on both a quarter-over-quarter and a year-over-year basis. While one reason for that is that the market price of both oil and natural gas increased over the period, resulting in the company generating more revenue per unit of energy produced. In addition however, Total also managed to grow its production in the latest quarter.

There are a few reasons for this. In July 2017, Total completed a multi-year process to obtain a 30% ownership stake in the Al-Shareen oil field, located offshore Qatar. Al-Shareen is one of the largest known oil fields in the world, producing approximately 300,000 barrels of oil per day (roughly 40% of the Qatari total). Thus, Total completing this deal in July 2017 would naturally increase the company's production quarter-over-quarter. In addition, investors will be pleased to note that the company's role in producing at this field is valid for the next 25 years, so Total will continue to generate revenue from this field for quite some time to come.

For a number of years, Total was one of several oil companies that was involved in the development of the massive Kashagan oil field located in the Caspian Sea. While this project experienced many troubles over the first decade of its existence, it finally began production on Sept. 11, 2013, although it was expected that it would take several years to expand to full production. Total is one of the companies that has continued to benefit from increasing production from Kashagan to this date and saw a production increase from it in the most recent quarter. It seems likely that Total will continue to see its production from Kashagan grow going forward as the ramp up continues and due to the size of this field, production can continue at the site for a number of years to come.

As many investors that follow the industry are already well aware, oil and gas companies the world over have been actively working to reduce their cost structures. This is largely a necessity given that it seems likely that the current oil pricing environment is going to continue for quite some time. Total is no exception to this and has implemented its own cost reduction program to attempt to keep its costs down. According to Chairman and CEO Patrick Pouyanne, commenting on the company's results (see link to results above):

Investment discipline continues. Organic investments were $3.1 billion in the third quarter 2017 and $10.0 billion in the first nine months, in line with the target of $14 billion this year, and cost reduction will be more than $3.6 billion, surpassing the target for this year.

In effect then, Total reduced its annual costs by $3.6 billion year-over-year while still managing to grow its production. As the oil and gas industry is a very capital-intensive industry, this is certainly an impressive feat and should prove to be quite appealing to investors. While this undoubtedly increased the company's reported profits, it also has the effect of increasing the company's cash flows in the face of the "new normal" oil price environment compared to where they would otherwise be. This provides some support to Total's dividend, which historically is quite appetizing.

One thing that has always appealing to investors about Total is the firm's dividend. The company quite often boasts one of the highest dividends in the oil sector, even among its European peers. In the latest quarter, the company was able to maintain this streak, declaring a quarterly dividend of €0.62 ($0.73205) per share. As of the time of writing, Total had a stock price of $55.21 per ADR, giving the company a dividend yield of 5.30%.

As is the case with many oil and gas companies, Total has a history of assisting its dividend over time, assisting income-focused investors in keeping their income growing to keep up with inflation. The company has either maintained or increased its dividend for more than 30 years, a track record that is quite similar to its American peers such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX) in this regard. Unfortunately, this has not always translated into a dividend increase for American investors, as shown here:

Source: DividendChannel.org

Total may actually be one of the better energy companies to own for those investors that desire or require income as it does boast one of the highest dividend yields among its peers.

Source: Created by author with source data from Yahoo Finance

Please note that, as with many foreign companies, U.S. citizens are often better served by holding their shares of Total in a standard brokerage account as opposed to some form of tax-advantaged vehicle. This is because France imposes a withholding tax on dividends paid by Total. This rate will either be 15% or 30% (typically 15% for individuals) depending on the status of the owner of the shares. Individuals, however, are able to take a credit against their tax returns for this amount, thus reducing their U.S. tax liability but this credit cannot be claimed if a tax-advantaged vehicle holds the shares but the tax will still be paid after the tax-advantaged account receives the dividend. This is the reason why it is recommended to hold your shares outside of your retirement account.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

[waldron] 17/11/2017 16:13

IPFNEWS.COM


“Iran’s Oil Ministry Showing Tolerance towards France’s Total”
November 17, 2017 - 15:18
total

An Iranian lawmaker says the Oil Ministry is showing tolerance vis-à-vis the French oil giant Total given the firm’s indicating that it might rethink its agreement with the ministry.

Senior Iranian lawmaker Feraydoon Hassanvand says the Director of the French energy giant Total has spoken of a possible review of its agreement with Iran due to legal reasons and a change in the sanctions regime, reports ICANA.

“In the interviews before and after the conclusion of the agreement, the [Iranian] Oil Ministry was given the necessary warnings, and we insisted that the deal not be based on immediate sanctions, but such a thing happened,” said Hassanvand, the chairman of Parliament’s Energy Commission.

“Still, Total has announced it will coordinate [its work] with US policies, and that if it wants to pull out of the agreement, it will do it earlier to pay less damages,” said the legislator.

“If such a thing happens, it will be tantamount to disrespect for legal laws and international regulations, and can set the precedent for violating all international contracts; moreover, Total’s credibility will be undermined as well,” the parliamentarian underlined.

“The move, in fact, shows that Total lacks any credibility and wants to scuttle an international agreement for profiteering in order to secure its interests in some countries,” he noted.

He went on to say that the Iranian Oil Ministry is showing tolerance vis-a-vis Total.

“We already announced that Iran should take the lead and file a lawsuit with domestic and international authorities to receive damages, but the Oil Ministry has shown tolerance so far to find out whether or not Total’s decision is final,” said the MP.

He said the behaviour of the French energy company indicates it is not willing to implement the agreement, adding, “The [Iranian] oil minister should be held answerable for that.”

He said the minister is to attend a meeting of the Parliament’s Energy Commission next week where he will report on the trend of the implementation of the Total agreement, the possibility of Total’s withdrawing from the deal and the legal measures to be adopted.

[la forge] 15/11/2017 08:31

Total’s $4.8B gas deal in Iran may be reviewed: CEO

November 15, 2017 Company News, Europe, Featured, Government, Middle East, Natural Gas, News, Offshore 0

The 20-year deal France’s Total signed with Iran, inaugurating the new Iranian Petroleum Contract (IPC) with western companies, may be at risk thanks to U.S. President Trump and the potential sanctions the U.S. may impose against Iran.

Total, alongside China’s CNPC, signed a $4.8 billion deal to develop phase 11 of the world’s largest gas field, South Pars, offshore Iran. The contract and Total’s return to Iran followed the 2015 international nuclear accord signed by Tehran and world powers, and the lifting of sanctions.

However, Trump has recently threated to quit the nuclear deal if the U.S. Congress and America’s allies fail to strengthen it. The call has been declined by the allies and Iran who defend the deal’s compliance and safety.

In an interview with CNN, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanne said the contract may have to be revisited if new economic sanctions are imposed against Iran, Kallanish Energy learns.

“Either we can do the deal legally if there is a legal framework,” he said. “If we cannot do that for legal reasons, because of (a) change of regime or sanctions, then we have to revisit it.”

“If there is a sanctions regime (on Iran), we have to look at it carefully,” he noted, adding that the French company has a growing presence in the U.S. “We work in the U.S., we have assets in the U.S., we just acquired more assets in the U.S.”

Pouyanne didn’t specify what alternatives could be put in place in case the deal comes to a revision, but said that SP11, as the project is known, is moving along.

“We’re working on the project. We launched the tenders, we should award … contracts by January. I hope by that time, Congress will have an answer for the president and the president will have to renew or not the certification (of the nuclear deal),” he told CNN.

SP 11 will have a production capacity of 2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of gas, or 400,000 barrels of oil-equivalent per day (BOE/d) including condensate. It will supply the Iranian domestic market beginning in 2021.

Total will operate the project with a 50.1% stake, in partnership with China’s CNPC (30%), and NIOC subsidiary Petropars (19.9%). The project’s first stage will cost roughly $2 billion and consist of 30 wells and two wellhead platforms connected to existing onshore treatment facilities, the companies said.

Later, a second phase will be launched involving the construction of offshore compression facilities – a first on the South Pars field.

[la forge] 15/11/2017 07:53

BP, Total execs criticize policymakers on energy future

November 15, 2017 Company News, Crude Oil, Government, Natural Gas, News, Renewables, World 0

BP CEO Bob Dudley and his counterpart at Total, Patrick Pouyanne, debated on Tuesday the relationship between international oil companies (IOCs) and government and industry regulators, during the APIDEC conference in Abu Dhabi, Kallanish Energy learns.

The executives presented their views as global business leaders to drive growth, ensuring more resilience to crude oil price fluctuations and economic cycles, through the convening power of IOCs and policymakers.

“Policymakers and politicians either need to get more educated or more honest, one or the other,” fired Dudley, adding that policymakers are often trying to impose things that won’t work ahead of elections.

Pouyanne said “policymakers are making wrong decisions” and that oil and gas companies “must also help policymakers and politicians to face the reality and not just accept it, because we do oil and gas.”

The French executive also questioned the Paris agreement capacity to keep a global temperature rise this century at 2 degrees Celsius, saying that based on the voluntary targets, it would reach 2.9 degrees Celsius.

“Maybe we are not doing what we should do collectively,” he said, adding the O&G industry should speak up as well as listen to policymakers, as they also invest in new energies.

[grupo] 13/11/2017 04:25

THE GULF TODAY


Forty French companies to participate in O&G event
November 13, 2017
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ABU DHABI: Business France, the national agency supporting the international development of the French economy, is once again organising a French collective pavilion at ADIPEC (Oil and Gas event), where some 40 companies representative of the industry’s various sectors will be presenting their products, services and expertise to local professionals with a view to developing or strengthening partnerships.

With major reserves (48 per cent of the world’s oil reserves and 38 per cent of its gas resources) and an expected two-fold increase in its production between 2004 and 2020, the Middle East is a leading global player and the commercial opportunities in the oil and gas industry in the region are vast.

Due to persistently low oil prices, the Middle East is still a very attractive region. The quality and quantity of the hydrocarbons produced in the region, along with lower-than-elsewhere extraction and processing costs, make it possible to generate business that is still better than in many other areas of the world.

The expertise of French companies, their technological skills and their capacity for innovation have helped the French oil and gas services industry to garner international recognition and a leading position among European exporters.

It is an industry par excellence, with one or more international leaders in the majority of its business areas. Alongside operators the likes of TOTAL, it consists of oil and gas industry equipment and service providers which include world giants such as CGG and TECHNIP. The sector also has two world-renowned research institutes, IFP Energies Nouvelles and IFREMER, and several major engineering firms and contractors.

Aware of the new challenges of a difficult context, the French companies exhibiting at ADIPEC offer solutions that serve the needs of operators: reservoir optimization, reserve development, precision tools for wells and surface units, facility equipment and surveillance systems, environmental protection, and more.

During the show, OSVfinder launches the first online chartering platform for energy market.

WAM