Toluna Share Discussion Threads

[kenmitch] 30/5/2006 17:15

Agreed. 1 million panellists! Revenues and profits ahead of expectations - and expectations were already high. And Chief Ex. C F Petit says 1 million panellists is just the first step.

One of the fastest growing Companies on the market - and in a thriving rapidly growing sector.

Excellent share to hold for the long term imo. Shares near to their all time high despite the big falls elsewhere. Could be a win win situation here. Fast growing sector, with TOL a market leader in that sector. Sector could do even better if there is an economic downturn as the advantages to Companies of lower costs could be even more appealing. And the sector is clearly going to expand fast anyway.

90% or so of the shares held by EVT, Institutions and C F Petit is a plus in these markets. Of course the MMs could mark the price down, but there is unlikely to be much selling beyond the 10% not already accounted for. None of the problems of forced selling by over exposed spread betters etc that can hit the price of shares that are popular on bbs. And should the share price fall back a bit it would provide another chance to top up. After all we KNOW the story is good and in the long term that is all that matters.

[rhianna1] 24/5/2006 20:41

Clear, upbeat statement from TOL AGM today. Looks like positive guidance on revenue and profits has been drowned out by the noise of the tempest swirling through markets.

[kenmitch] 28/4/2006 10:13

Latest "strong buy" note from Teather and Greenwood, issued after TOL's last results, reinforces the point made in the last but one paragraph above.

i.e they say that EVT shares are trading at a discount to their theoretical NAV estimation for EVT of 24 - 25p. That's some discount. I posted in a bit more detail on this on the EVT bb.

[kenmitch] 13/4/2006 09:38

Comment on results in Investors Chronicle today.

Nothing much new. Mentioned Adventis (sic) and their health-survey.com website.

Also that 10% of TOL's profits come from selling its software to companies who want to maintain their own on-line customer panels.

Mentions broker Cenkos forecasts of £2 million PBT and EPS of 4.5p in 2006, rising to £3.65 million and 6.7p EPS in 2007.

They reckon the rapid growth in sales and profits is priced in for now.

Fair enough, but they also took the same view about YOU a few weeks ago since when the shares have soared another £1.

Fans wondering about this could always buy Eurovestech instead for now. They own over 60% of TOL and it would only want a bit more good news from KSS and/or Magenta to give EVT shares another lift. And EVT shares rose little on the recent run up in the TOL price, and seem good value at 16p or so.

i.e IF TOL shares do a YOU and rise further despite the doubts expressed by I/C and others then the EVT share price should tick up. If TOL shares do nothing much for a few months, EVT shares might surprise on the upside.

Loads on the now excellent EVT website of course.

[kenmitch] 10/4/2006 10:43

Very interesting/informative posts. Thanks.

Cortez.

I wondered/worried about licencees of TOL developing their own panels independently but apparently this hasn't happened at all yet with 100% renewals so far. e.g Aventis have now renewed four years running.

I was disappointed with the share price performance compared with YOU post results. YOU up 102p last week.

But then a breather, or even a small temporary pull back would provide another topping up opportunity.

The massive and rapid potential growth justifies the current PE imo.

btw - stating the obvious, the TOL website is excellent.

[woodcutter] 07/4/2006 15:34

only took a small holding at this price but will watch and definately top up on dips, in for the long term on this one.

[liarspoker] 07/4/2006 14:25

I'm holding all mine - no chance of selling till next year.

[cortez] 07/4/2006 14:22

My very rough calcs last night show:-

PE
RNOW 39.4
YOU 52.6,
TOL 68.5,

Net margin;
YOU 38%,
TOL 24.7%, (actual tax charge)
RNOW 14.4%;

t/o
RNOW times 5
YOU times 2.9
TOL times 2.8

Seems to me that RNOW must be cheaper than TOL business wise via the lower margin, but greater t/o growth compensates?

I believe there's a diference between the way YOU operate as against TOL and RNOW which gives YOU better margins. It seems licensees of TOL, RNOW may develop their own panels independently. My take is that YOU 'own' their panels and they cannot be developed buy anyone else. Sketchy!

Hindsight says YOU was the play and may still be. I'd say TOL edges it over RNOW because of their potetential 7m customers from Freenet via Speedfacts.
Also £3m cash, maybe another acquisition?

However the share price has not responded to the results and is likely to 'stick around' for a while so I'm considering selling at least some, have a few too many for me.

[woodcutter] 07/4/2006 08:25

Haven't got a lot of time, going to build a snowman in courchvel with the kids this weekend, but quick calcs suggest that at 260% inrease in T/O for Qtr1 gives annual T/O £7.8m, if cost of sales and admin double as last year then assume £4.8m, profit £3.0m, tax £1.0m, eps approx 7p, per 20 this year and lower next. Also profit and cash inflow from ops good so generating cash. Only downside is they seem to take a while to get paid.

I don't like to buy before i go on holiday but i think it's going to have to be done.

[liarspoker] 07/4/2006 08:10

With thanks to Cambium:



Cambium - 7 Apr'06 - 07:57 - 2723 of 2724


Investors Chronicle
CHEAP RECOVERY STOCKS: CARDPOINT, LAWRENCE, TOREX RETAIL - TIPS - LARGE
COMPANIES: UNILEVER (buy), TULLOW OIL (buy), WOOLWORTHS (sell), FLOMERICS (buy);
TIPS - SMALLER COMPANIES: RC GROUP (buy), GTECH (buy); TIPS - UPDATES: CLAPHAM
HOUSE (good value), ICAP (buy), YOUGOV (fairly priced), BRITVIC (keep buying),
HOTEL CORPORATION (good value)

[liarspoker] 06/4/2006 19:33

Adding as well, great growth here going forward imo.

[woodcutter] 06/4/2006 19:28

liars, picked up this thread from your e-mail suggestions and i think i.m in tommorrow, high per but growth is astonishing, so i figure it's a must, can always top up on dips. Will do some calcs this evening just to confirm. Eurovestec holding is a concern due to it's size. At what point do they take out their venture capital? As it will improve liquidity would you expect a rise in the share price? Don't disagree about the others either RNOW TMN. Is eurovestec worth a punt as well, looks very interesting and has institutional backing.

[egoi] 04/4/2006 16:31

Bookbroker only if RNOW management can improve things.
They are all good companies and I think we could get bogged down trying to prove one is better than the other. Wouldn't put anyone off any of them.
My preference is for Toluna with clients including Mercedes-Benz, AOL, Peugeot, Dior, IKEA, Aventis and France Telecom. They are unlike the others in that they don't compete in the cut-throat political arena.
And today's results and more important outlook suggests it is heading higher.
If we get bogged down in a beauty contest it won't do anything for any of them. Good luck whichever you go for or are in.

[bookbroker] 04/4/2006 16:16

So there is much more in RNOW to play for.

[kenmitch] 04/4/2006 15:48

THE key information in these excellent results is the 260% increase in revenues in the first quarter of this year.

This provides the evidence we need to confirm that growth in turnover and profits for TOL is going to be explosive. And it's happening now.

Could be that TOL will turn out to be one of the fastest, if not THE fastest growing Company over the next couple of years.

Ditto the sector as a whole. Still only around 5% in Europe compared with over 30% in the US. The few private investors who have discovered it should enjoy the ride.

[integer] 04/4/2006 13:14

you probably need to add back the amortisation for all companies to arrive at EBITDA figures?

[liarspoker] 04/4/2006 13:12

At it's most basic I get the following ( PTP/TO ):

YOU ( 1448/3841 ) = 37.7%

TOL ( .756/3 ) = 25%

RNOW ( 524/3639 ) = 14.4%

I couldn't get a good look as I keep getting timed out but here's a start anyway.

[kenmitch] 04/4/2006 13:01

egoi.

I've been trying to compare margins for YOU, TOL and RNOW but can't find the figures, without trawling through the accounts.

Do you know what they are for all three please?

Agree that TOL results seem very impressive at first glance.

Surprised the shares haven't risen more yet.

[egoi] 04/4/2006 11:15

Jackleeds the trouble with RNOW is that margins are far lower - about half of TOL. I still prefer TOL, as I think the growth over the next 1-2 years (and recent acquisitions will add further fuel) will be mind-blowing, as witness the revenue numbers mentioned. With just 10% in free float of TOL, rises could be further exaggerated. 200p looks easily achieveable this year.

[jakleeds] 04/4/2006 10:42

Liars, Tol and Yougov are great stocks in a booming sector, but RNOW is the best value in terms of compnies who are purely into online market research. However, I've said this before but for me TMN is a great stock with exposure to three tremendous growth sectors: online market research, online shopping and direct marketing. Take a look at this for more info:

[liarspoker] 04/4/2006 10:09

Geez it's quiet here......

Could TOL be an undiscovered gem.......answers on a postcard. :o)

[liarspoker] 04/4/2006 08:35

UK smallcap opening - ToLuna up on maiden results

LONDON (AFX) - Buyers pursued ToLuna, 10 pence ahead at 147, after the
European independent provider of online panels and technology services to the
market research industry revealed bumper numbers -- the first year end results
to be announced since the placing and admission to AIM in May 2005 -- and said
current trading is very strong, with Q1 revenue of 1.4 mln stg, up 260 pct.
-

[liarspoker] 04/4/2006 08:26

Group T/O for 2005 = Stg 3m

T/O Q1 2006 = Stg 1.4m - 260% ahead.

Laughable really, isn't it.

And a very quiet BB - Gotta love it. :o)

[liarspoker] 04/4/2006 08:13

Absolutely brilliant results, current trading & forecasts - I'm in !!!

[theophilus] 04/4/2006 07:47

for the period ended 31st December 2005

ToLuna plc, the leading European independent provider of online panels and
technology services to the market research industry, today announces its
results from the 16 March 2005 to 31 December 2005, which includes trading from
10 May 2005. These are the first year end results to be announced since the
placing and admission to AIM in May 2005.

Highlights

* Successful IPO on AIM in May

* Proforma turnover for the Group of GBP 3 million, nearly tripling the
previous year result

* Proforma PBT of GBP 756,000, over 22 times the previous year

* Revenues up significantly across all three lines of business: panel access,
panel building and access to technology

* In line with stated strategy, significant expansion of operations to create
a Pan-European presence with offices and management team in Paris, London
and in Frankfurt following acquisition of German online pioneer Speedfacts
in December 2005

* Growth in panellists from 350,000 in May 2005 to 875,000 currently, now
across 13 countries

* Current trading very strong: Q1 revenue of GBP1.4 million, up 260%.

Commenting on the results, Chairman, George Kynoch said, "I'm delighted the
results reflect the Group's continuing strong performance and are significantly
ahead of management expectations. Demand for all our services continues to grow
as market research companies switch an increasing proportion of their market
research online. This gives us considerable confidence in the growth potential
of ToLuna."

Further enquires

ToLuna plc

Frederic-Charles Petit, Chief Executive Tel: [phone]

Richard Bernstein, Non-Executive Director Tel: [phone]

Powerscourt

Victoria Palmer-Moore Tel: [phone]

Notes to Editors

ToLuna operates and builds online panels across Europe. It has designed and
operates software to enable research to be undertaken online.

ToLuna offers three core services to the market research industry:

* access to its online panellists;

* creation of dedicated online panels; and

* licensing of its own hosted proprietary technology.

The group operates across Europe with offices in London, Paris and Frankfurt,
following the acquisition of Speedfacts at the end of 2005.

Chairman's Statement

I am pleased to report the results of the Group for the period from
incorporation, 16 March 2005 to 31 December 2005. The Group commenced trading
on 10 May 2005. These are the first year end results to be announced since our
placing and admission to AIM in May 2005, and I am pleased to be able to report
profit before taxation of £430,000. These excellent results have been achieved
alongside a significant expansion of our operations to create a pan-European
presence. No direct comparatives have been included as ToLuna Plc was
incorporated as a new holding company for the Group in March 2005. Proforma
turnover for the Group for the full year was £3 million and proforma profit
before taxation was £756,000 as detailed in the proforma income statement at
the end of this statement, showing growth of 2.8 times turnover and 22.2 times
profit before taxation.

Your directors are not recommending a dividend for the period.

When Toluna acquired the operating subsidiaries on 10 May 2005, the business
was operating from one office in Paris with five international panels and a
total of 350,000 panel members. Since then, we have successfully opened an
office in London and our acquisition of Speedfacts Gesellschaft für Online
Research mbH ("Speedfacts") at the year end has given us a strong presence in
Germany. Presently, we have panels in 13 European countries and 875,000
panellists.

Demand for our services continues to grow as market research companies and
others switch an increasing proportion of their market research online, drawn
by the very significant advantages in cost and speed of processing. This gives
us considerable confidence in the growth potential of the Company.

The investment made during 2005 will enable the Company to handle the
increasing level of business.

Placing and admission to AIM

ToLuna was incorporated on 16 March 2005 and acquired the trading subsidiaries
Cjudge Limited and Cjudge SAS on 10 May 2005. On 25th May 2005, the Company
raised £4.4million, net of expenses, by means of a placing accompanied by
admission of the Company's shares to AIM. The funds raised from the placing
allowed us to accelerate our growth by increasing our panel size and market
penetration, while continuing to invest in the development of our technology,
opening of new offices and the identification of sound strategic acquisitions.
The capital injection and the good reception from the market has given us
significant momentum which has continued into the current year.

ToLuna's shares, which were priced at 70p in the float, have recently traded at
130p. While share prices are volatile and not within the company's control, we
are pleased the shares sit at a significant premium to the placing price at
float.

Speedfacts Acquisition

On 30 December 2005, Speedfacts was purchased for £2.06 million. The
consideration was satisfied by the payment to the vendors of £1.91 million in
cash and by the issue of 146,588 new ordinary shares in ToLuna. The acquisition
was a first step in our strategy of expanding into other major European
markets, giving us an immediate presence in Germany, together with an important
strategic co-operation agreement with freenet.de AG, one of Germany's biggest
internet service providers.

Operational Review

Revenue has grown across all three lines of business: panel access, panel
building and access to technology.

This significant improvement in performance resulted from:

* The successful strategy of expanding our office network with offices in
London in addition to our operational centre in Paris. Your directors
strongly believe that although our focus is online panel and technology,
clients also benefit from contact with local teams who understand local
markets;

* The leveraging of our offering to clients, providing not only strong sample
services but also panel building and proprietary access to hosted data
collection technology;

* Adding more resources to service clients, in project management, sales and
consulting;

* Increasing repeat business from existing clients, as well as developing and
broadening our portfolio of clients.

This has been achieved by adding fresh talented management to the core team at
ToLuna in sales, IT, client services and finance. ToLuna is strongly committed
to continue to invest in its people in order to continue and accelerate our
strong growth.

Services

ToLuna offers its clients access to its panel, panel building operations and to
its technology. This gives the Group the ability to offer a wide range of
services specifically suited to client needs and to adapt to the evolving
requirements of those clients in a market that is still changing, while
reshaping market research.

Capacity to deliver services, whether they are panel or technology driven, is
key to the long term success of ToLuna. ToLuna has invested in people by
growing the production, panel management, IT and sales team.

* Panel Access and Panel Building

As part of our efforts to offer ever-better service to clients, we have grown
our panel base from five countries to 13 and from 350,000 panellists to 729,000
as of 31 December 2005.

We have also worked hard to maintain the quality of our panellist relationship
management through our "testandvote" and "Toluna" portals. This has been
achieved by developing the functions of the panellist portals (quick vote,
product testing and opinions gathering).

* Technology

In 2005, our portfolio of technology clients grew by adding new clients such as
Galeries Lafayette, SwissLife and Best Western. In line with our stated
strategy, we have invested in infrastructure and research and development. This
has involved:

* Growing our IT resources;

* Upgrading our IT capacity by investing in new equipment;

* Creating access to new resources of research and development; and

* Development of our new AutomateSurvey solution.

ToLuna is distinguished from its competitors by the high levels of investment
in proprietary IT and in research and development. This has been key to the
past development of our offer and we intend to continue in that vein.

Prospects

The strong growth seen in 2005 has continued into the current year, with
revenue in the first quarter of £1.4 million, an increase of approximately 260
per cent. over the same period in 2005. The market for our services continues
to increase and the investment and hard work that has been put in by ToLuna's
management and staff is achieving positive results. On behalf of your Board I
should like to take this opportunity to thank all the staff, management and
advisers for their significant contribution to our success over the past year.

With a strong start to the year, your directors are confident that ToLuna's
prospects are excellent. We believe our investment in the future gives us a
solid platform from which to exploit our position as one of the leading players
in a fast growing market place.

George Kynoch

Chairman

3 April 2006

Unaudited Proforma Consolidated Income Statement

The additional proforma information does not form part of the financial
statements on which the auditors have issued their report; however, it should
be read in conjunction with them.

The Group acquired Cjudge on 10 May 2005 and therefore the consolidated income
statement in the financial statements only includes the results from that date.
The following proforma information shows the results of the Group for the full
year ended 31 December 2005 as if the Group had been in existence for the full
year. The comparative figures are extracted from the placing document dated 13
May 2005.

Proforma year ended Year ended
31December
31 December
2005
2004
£'000
£'000

Revenue 3,001 1,069

Staff costs (excluding share option scheme (1,211) (567)
grant cost)

Other operating expenses (1,147) (477)

Profit from operations 643 25

Net investment income 113 9

Profit before tax 756 34

Tax (233) (14)

Retained profit for the financial year 523 20

Earnings per share

Basic 1.46p n/a

Diluted 1.45p n/a