||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Toad (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|fusebox: An amusing post from ii interactive investor bb.
The directors dont want to hype things up....lol !
The fact is they know they cant do cos the company is going nowhere and if they were to be very possitive they would be in breach of the FSA...
So there we have it even at this low price the direstors are forced to accept that the share price is going nowhere.
Follow what IC said....there are far better plays elswhere...move on is best before things get worse!
List Previous View thread
Respond | Recommend | Email to a friend | Neighbourhood Watch
Author XTRASPECIAL View Profile | Add to favourites | Ignore
Date posted today 09:25
Subject Re: SHARE PRICE View parent message
Recommendations This message has not been recommended
I've told both Ward and Jennings - copied to Grimond - that their virtual absence of Press Relations is harming the share price. They don't agree - saying that they don't want to 'over-hype' the price and would rather wait for realities to bear fruit.
You might like to make your views known by sending each of them an e-mail at the Lilly Pond. I suspect they imagine my views are in issolation.
|nod: My investment strategies have evolved over 20 years. Although I look for herd mentality to make a quick buck here and there, I find the safest profits invariably come from value investments; especially from buying companies when they are most out of favour and undervalued.
This seems to be the situation for Toad. Few investors today are looking 6 or 12 months ahead in a services business.
Over many years, the listed company that analysts have compared with Toad has been Armour. So I thought I would take a look at their comparative share prices and p/e ratios.
Toad and Armour are similar size. Armour has recently turned in better profits an area that Toad's management are working on.
TOA's profit underperformance is reflected in its share price performance. AMR's forward p/e is 13 whereas TOA's is 5.
Toad is clearly undervalued on a 12-month view. This leaves room for a huge improvement in Toad's share price should profits come near (or exceed) forecasts.
Investing is an analyst's game; leave emotions for the bedroom; focus on facts.|
|nod: Other posts from Fusebox aka moneyfinger aka Lord Butterstock
moneyfinger - 26 Jul'04 - 14:08 - 1413 of 2770
News not on the RNS!!!
jadacards...as you know from EKT...i like to dig until i pick up the nice bits not commonly known!
I have now had today a conversation with Toad management. I am quite happy to hold Toad at the moment, i feel the share price will pick up shortly.
Anyway as a result of my chat with management...the head office property of Toad is a freehold property and was last valued in 1997..the value in Toad's balance sheet is about £2.2 million. If the head office property was revalued today an estimated revaluation would be nearer £3 to 4 million! A substantial increase in any event.
moneyfinger - 4 Sep'04 - 14:56 - 1471 of 2770
Money is what i am good at making...my 2 best performers are TFC and EKT both up share prices are up over 1000% in about 18 months.
I have 100,000 shares in Toad having paid aprox 17.5p|
|nod: The finals last year were released on 19-March. My guess would be Friday 18-March for this year. If so, we only have 5 weeks to wait.
It's unlikely that the results will be any different from the house broker's (Seymour's) recent revision of £1.3m and EPS of 1.60p
At a share price of 10p this is a p/e of 6.25
Looking to 2006, the broker forecast £1.55m which would be a EPS of 1.9p and a current p/e at 10p of 5.26
It doesn't look as though the broker has yet added in the 21st Century income for 2006 (£0.5m).
The 21st Century deal looks to provide a high return on investment and to offer interesting potential for both organic growth and integration into Toad's service infrastructure.
Toad have said they are on the acquisition trail. Hopefully, they will announce more such acquisitions during 2004.
All-in-all Toad look very good value below 15p (forecast p/e 9.4).
Unless you believe that the house broker is wrong and profits are going to be much less than they expect.
After the March results, the market will be looking forward to 2006. A share price of 15p (50% higher than today) would put them on a p/e of 7.89 for 2006.
A further 50% rise in share price to 22.5p would put them on a p/e 11.83 for 2006.
If you are happy to buy and hold for 13 months, you are more likely than not to see a 100% rise before March 2006.|
|vs: I've opened this thread since the existing Toad threads have been trashed to pieces by an individual called fusebox (and his aliases) who first ramped the company and then two weeks later started thrashing the company - a well organised pump and dump, if you ask me.
Anyway, all serious views on TOA - positive or negative - are welcome here, but fusebox and his aliases will be moderated out of existence. You can of course continue to post on any of the existing threads but the difference is that here Fusebox will not be allowed to take the thread down to the gutter. Thank you.
My own view is that Toad is an interesting small cap with potential. However weak 2nd half sales and a move to AIM have caused share price weakness. Is this short term? if yes, it could be a good buying opportunity.
Executive directors :
Non-Executive directors :
Major shareholders and the directors' holdings:
Shares in issue: 81.4m 10p Ords
Major Shareholders Amount % Holding
Barclayshare Nominees Ltd 5,995,004 7.65
Sir Christopher Evans 4,569,628 5.83
Carglass Luxembourg Sarl NV 3,639,949 4.65
TD Waterhouse 2,723,980 3.48
Other Directors Amount % Holding
Nicholas Grimond 2,021,739 2.581
Peter Terry Ward 1,579,333 2.016
David A Voss 392,453 0.501
Wilson W Jennings 50,000 0.064
Stuart Arthur Gall 12,347 0.016
Updated Broker forecast (from Seymour Pierce):
..............................................2005 ............ 2006
Broker ........ Date ...Rec ... Pre-tax (£) EPS(p) DPS(p) Pre-tax(£) EPS(p) DPS(p)
Seymour Pierce 18-03-05 OUTP .... 1.80 .....1.90 ... - .... 1.93 ... 2.10 ... -
Growth (%) 13.21 10.53
Standard Deviation (p) 0.00 0.00
PE Prospective (x) 4.87 4.40 @9.25p
10 Sep 2002 - Interim Results - Company returns to profits
11 Sep 2002 - Share Issue - 858369 shares issued to vendors of S C Hill
19 Mar 2003 - Final Results - operating profit of £1M
19 Mar 2003 - Peter Ward buys 25k shares @ 3.5p
27 Mar 2003 - Peter Ward buys 100k shares @ 5.75p
01 May 2003 - Peter Ward buys 250k shares @ 5.25p
23 May 2003 - David Voss buys 17k shares @ 7.3p
03 Jun 2003 - Nick Grimmond becomes Managing Director
23 Jul 2003 - Interim Results - Profits up 3-fold
28 Aug 2003 - Placing of 3,688,880 new ordinary shares @ 19.5p
03 Sep 2003 - Signs deal with Vodafone/Unipart
14 Nov 2003 - Ex-chairman Christopher Evans sells 1m shares
14 Nov 2003 - David Voss buys 979 shares @ 20.72p
12 Jan 2004 - Ex-chairman Christopher Evans sells 1m shares
19 Mar 2004 - Final Results - profits up 380%, debt down to 3.9m
19 Mar 2004 - David Voss buys 48808 shares @ 23.75p
08 Jun 2004 - David Voss buys & sells 20k shares
22 Jul 2004 - Interim Results, profits up ~ 15%
27 Sep 2004 - Trading Update - 2nd H sales, profits below market expectations
04 Oct 2004 - Peter Ward buys 500k shares @ 11p
04 Oct 2004 - David Voss buys 17550 shares @ 10.5p and 63116 @ 10.6p
21 Dec 2004 - Signs deal with 21st Century Crime Prevention
22 Dec 2004 - Carglass convert their Toad preference shares into Ordinary Shares
02 Feb 2005 - Announces intention to transfer to AIM (in 2Q 2005)
02 Feb 2005 - Plans to increase stake in 21st Century Crime Prevention to 49%
02 Feb 2005 - Current trading is in line with expectations
16 Mar 2005 - Final Results, operating profits of £1.5M, debt down to £3.7M
16 Mar 2005 - AIM admission confirmed as 15 Apr 05
15 Apr 2005 - 1st day on AIM
09 May 2005 - Toad increases stake in 21st Century to 49%
09 May 2005 - Carglass sell TOA shares, directors buy 3.6Million (~ 7.875p)
17 May 2005 - AGM - Current trading is in line with expectations, cash flow strong
24 May 2005 - Company's new name = TG21 Plc, new epic = TGP|
|fusebox: Toad and the brokers lose credibility.
Toad brokers Seymour Pierce have slashed Toad forecasts and shareholders have been stuffed..
Previously the brokers were looking for over 2.05 million for year ended 2004 and an further increase for 2005.
The 2004 profits have been slashed massively to £1.3 million.
With stagnant earnings for a considerable time to come, debt increased lately investing in Toad is now very high risk.
There could now be considerable selling due to Tax losses of Toad shareholders before year end.
Toad management back track and go back to Aim.
Toad and the shareholders get the runs after the share price collapse...
More bad news....they see no increase in profitability for Toads mature operations for 2005.|
|vs: I wonder who said all this on another TOAD thread. What a difference a couple of weeks makes. LOL!
"The market cap for Toad is only £11 million with a turnover of well over £30 million that is far too cheap. Had Toad been a sole telmatics company the rating would be phenominally higher. Possibly 10 times higher.
However things could be about to change.
The instalation of hands free kit is gathering pace.
The company has trials going for its Vehicle inspection service with a number of insurance companies. These trials have been going on quite a long time now it only needs one contract and the rest will probably follow. The co has a large database which will be of interest to insurance companies.
Recently Toad have taken on a partnership with 21st century crime partnership for security services.
Gearing is quite high at the moment but having said that the company is profitable.
The company has likely revalued its freehold properties before the year end now having not done so for over 10 years. It's likely the balance sheet will be boosted by this.
There are risks with Toad however the share price has rissen about 50% the last couple of months. Its highly likely things are set to gather pace.
Should things start to take off Toad share price will recover very quickly indeed and could treble or quadruple in a very short time frame.
The markets for some of its products are huge. Clearly at a market cap of £11 million and profitable at that the company is seriously undervalued."|
|moneyfinder: There arent many companes out there that one would considerably say they are undervalued, due to ramping of undeserving shares with bad fundamentals.
One of the most undervalued is of course EKT of which i hold a huge chunk of shares however Toad is another of my choices.
The price dropped overly on 1 months sales which dissapointed however it is believed this was more of a glitch than a longer term trend.
Since then the Directors have upped their stakes at about 11p which is a very good sign.
The fundamentals are still sound and dont underestimate that the co does a £30 mill or so turnover and such a paltry market cap.
The NEC stand has likely done well and the co will be revaluing the freehold properties having not done so for many years. The balnace sheet will benefit because of this.
Be patient and your patience will be rewarded here. Difficult to predict when the share price will rise substantialy, however it will happen.
Small companies share price can take off rapidly at any time its important to remain focused and disregard what happens in the general market.
I se no reason within a matter of time that the share price should not exceed 20p and on towards 30p. Bear in mind a trebling of the share price will still put the market cap of Toad at under sales turnover which is still cheap.|
|moneyfinger: Warning over stop losses:-
I am sorry one of the above posters had stop losses in place for Toad, they can be a good mechanism but the danger is they can be triggered when there is nothing wrong with the fundamentals of the company. That seems to have been the case with Toad.
There has been a lot of jiggery pokery with the mms lately and as an example i am a holder of TFC...just late the share price was slipping a few pence..Thursday TFC came out with a bulish RNS...the price reversed. The same happened with EKT of which i am a holder as well...recently despite more buys than sells of EKT...the mms dipped the price...fortunately i took advantage of the situeation and the mms had to quicly reverse the share price upwards...following which the same day..a RNS came out in relation to director buys, moreover a further RNS came out the same day with further positive news. Seo of which i am not a holder had another bad day last week after the mms dipped the share price...what followed was an extremely positive RNS.
It would appear to me the mms have a prior notice of news in certain situations and are attempting to take advantage of this by dipping the price taking on the stock and marking it up on the RNS.
Clearly the fundamentals are ok with Toad, there has now been a reality check, and it seems to me having done some research on the company that Toad could now be ready for a rerating. I expect the share price to continue now on its upward path the next few days and a good rise on results.|
|addict: And now for my next trick...TOA share price to move north.Looks-no hands...!|
Toad share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange