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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Tullow Oil LSE:TLW London Ordinary Share GB0001500809 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +2.20p +1.00% 222.20p 4,562,934 16:35:09
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
221.60p 221.80p 225.00p 217.60p 220.70p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 1,457.91 204.27 4.78 47.5 3,096.6

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Date Time Title Posts
22/2/201915:07Tullow Oil PLC - Poised for a Takeover?33,957
04/12/201809:09Tullow Possible Bid Approach Rumours 10.3.17. Discuss 2
25/7/201807:35Tullow Oil (TLW) One to Watch on Wednesday -
11/4/201810:41L2 - Observations, comments and screenshots49

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Tullow Oil (TLW) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2019-02-22 17:37:35222.204,0148,919.11O
2019-02-22 17:25:40223.1016,27236,302.83O
2019-02-22 17:24:18221.952,9046,445.46O
2019-02-22 17:12:02221.952,2064,896.24O
2019-02-22 17:07:51222.1429,36765,237.03O
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Tullow Oil (TLW) Top Chat Posts

Tullow Oil Daily Update: Tullow Oil is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TLW. The last closing price for Tullow Oil was 220p.
Tullow Oil has a 4 week average price of 187.75p and a 12 week average price of 163.30p.
The 1 year high share price is 279.30p while the 1 year low share price is currently 163.30p.
There are currently 1,393,616,501 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 7,103,281 shares. The market capitalisation of Tullow Oil is £3,096,615,865.22.
bootycall: Funny to hear Angus McCoss saying COS on each Guyana exploration well to be drilled is 1 in 4, to 1 in 5, against his usual 15% for a wildcat. Lisa and Hammerhead have proven both the cretaceous and tertiary plays respectively. He also says in the Q&A right at the end that "it is pretty evident Hammerhead extends into our block to some extent" the COS must surely be 60-80% as the prospect is up dip of the discovery. He also implied that a successful drilling of Jethro a 100mbls prospect(at a total cost of $28m in 1350m of water) would derisk a number of tertiary targets nearby. If any of these wells are successful, the prospect inventory will be risk adjusted downwards resulting in a material change to analysts valuations. The oncoming FID in Uganda (mid 2019) and Kenya (end 2019) should also be catalysts for the share price. Tullow is already extremely attractive based on its forecast cash flow yield. The initial drilling locations in the Guyana drilling programme are not the largest prospects to be drilled (and therefore do not individually impact the NAV valuation that much). In the event of a successful outcome, they will in my opinion, restore the premium rating to the share price that existed several years ago.
subsurface: POO and world events seem to have hit Tullow,s share price hard not much to underpin the share price. Ghana new wells to come on line and lots of infill wells planned for 2019 a new oil block and another FPSO is on my wish list. SS
rationaleee: Surprisingly TLW has been the worst performing leverage stock since the bottom of the oil market in feb'16. Oil price from Feb '16 of $28/bbl to todays $82/bbl is close to 200% rise while TLW has gone up from 130p to 260p i.e. 100% rise on an absolute basis. Even after taking into account roughly 40% dilution, TLW has massively underperformed similar 50% diluted stocks like PMO, ENQ. Was TLW massively mispriced in 2014 back when oil was at $80 or is TLW mispriced now with oil at $80?? It seems share buyback is the only way to drive the share price, as a prospect of potential dividend is not enticing IIs yet.
rationaleee: The convertible bondholders arbitrauging, play these games before close. Usually they play all day. Its in their favor to keep share price around their conversion price. Hoping TLW pays it off soon, seen exact price action at PMO for over a year.. Intra day action/games matter less, closing price is what matters the most for LTHs. Past two days oil price went up 4% while TLW went up c.4%. Is it only a leveraged play when oil goes down? at $80, the $200mn litigation charge can be made back as well... Even taking into account RI with respect to the EV, share price should be much higher, i.e. market cap should be £4bn+.
bootycall: xxnjr1. Please go ahead and short away. I was deeply disappointed by the Kosmos result...I also wanted blood. Why indeed was no person fired for what appears to be such a whopping administrative error ?Now let’s consider the mitigating circumstances. The rig contract was an eye watering $600k per day and TLW was in a toxic position legally and politically. With acreage commitments on both sides of the disputed Ghana/Ivory Coast border and such an aggressive land grab from the Ivorians on their principal asset, they needed to proceed with great caution. The argument that they could have drilled elsewhere and avoided force majeure ( used by Seadrill in the court case) whilst technically correct, is forgetting the fact that other locations did not offer the same cost benefit / or cost recovery terms. They lost on a point of law not a reflection of the pragmatic business reasons for contract termination . How do you redeploy a rig into other acreage when you do not have the same licence partners in other locations to contribute to the day rate? The reason it cost Tullow so much money is that the ITLOS debacle occurred in the most vicious downturn where the RIG OPERATOR could not deploy on similar rates anywhere else. Sounds like a bit of a “black swan “ event to me.The main board only approved the fast drill out of Ten and Jubilee on such a long term contract because of the anticipated cash flows,attractive cost recovery and prevailing oil prices. I remember at the time how African E&P companies were complaining at lack of rig availability and the service companies could dictate terms. The most interesting point I think I can probably make in Tullow’s defence is that they believed that were executing an agreed position amongst the partners regardless of Kosmos ability to wriggle out of their liability. Interesting that all of the other partners to the agreement have now paid their cash calls and not entered into further legal disputes with Tullow. Suggests that Tullows argument that the operating committee followed normal industry procedures must be at least partially true . Which brings me back to some other homes truths. Perhaps you will contrast the conservatism of Tullows market guidance with the forward looking statements in Kosmos quarterly reports. Then look at the outperformance of Kosmos stock even though they have very similar asset portfolios. Isn’t it great to be owned by private equity. Interesting how Tullow has just cleaned up in the latest licensing round in the Ivory Coast and then farmed straight out to Cairn. I wonder whether Kosmos would have been interested in those assets ? :) I really enjoy your posts which are well researched and show great industry knowledge but in my humble ( ok sometimes big headed ) opinion, I am just turning major bull on a Tullow. All of the analysts are by necessity applying normal decline rates on Jubilee production because they have not yet seen a reserve report that allows them to do much to the contrary. I believe that this will change decisively during the current drilling programme. I am willing to speculate that Tullow will show it can produce to the full nameplate capacity of the two FPSOs for several years as a result of infill drilling. Furthermore if one applies a $70 oil price to this level of production,the share price is headed substantially higher based on Ghana alone. Jubilee, has a history of substantial reserve upgrades. This, I believe,is a function of the difficulty of initially estimating recoverability ratios on immature fields. This was exacerbated by technical uncertainty of whether a gas offtake from Jubilee would be able to get financing. More recently we had the potential issue of whether there would be reservoir damage from high production rates without remedial work opportunities during the ITLOS dispute. We even had to retrofit filters to existing wells to stop sand clogging. I am not a petroleum engineer but I have researched this in some depth. To achieve share price outperformance, I do accept there needs to be a catalyst. I also agree that the Namibian acreage represents a cluster of 100m barrel prospects and is pretty high risk. I doubt if a Kenyan farm in is around the corner. The other non operated acreage in West Africa is exceptionally high return but does not materially change things. So why am I bullish ? Quite simply ... Guyana ! If the stock market does not wake up ...I speculate that a major will take a pop at Tullow and then Exxon will in my opinion most likely join in. Do you honestly think the board of Tullow is so stupid that they will not now prioritise Guyana ? Eco Atlantic has to the best of my knowledge specifically referred to their “partner”; on the licence agreeing that certain prospects on this acreage have been derisked. This is hardly surprising since they are close to finishing their own 3D seismic interpretation and Hammerhead is 7kms from the block and one the prospects overlaps. If Tullow was previously talking about 1bn barrels of risked prospects on the block, I believe the number is more like 5-6 billion unrisked. I do accept that these prospects are channel sands and similar to Ghana will have to be drilled out rather than inferred as a stratigraphic resource. Shorting Tullow could represent a short term trading opportunity if oil prices come off. From where I am standing Tullow has 20-30p downside and enormous upside. Shorting can be dangerous to your health.
rationaleee: There seems to be an inherent arbitrage activity going on with TLW. The Convertible bond that TLW issued in 2016 seems to be the reason. The share price effects seem similar to what PMO had with their convertibles holding their share price down. Obviously TLWs Convertible Bond is much smaller compared to its market cap, but if the HFs are doing the arbitrage activity like in PMOs case then it is in their interest to keep the share price on or below the conversion price. This is of course just speculation but i think the Convertible Bonds are having some sort of an impact on TLWs poor return because its hard to explain why TLW has gone up from 145p to only 270p when oil went in the same period from $47 to $80/bbl. As a leveraged player with improving financials the share price should be much higher even after taking into account the Rights Issue. I think we should pay the convertible bond off or force conversion so the share price could move higher in a confident way.
teamwork1: True tlw share price should be 3
mariopeter: Sitting here thinking if they proved up Kenya and sold 90% Kenya for $2.3 b cash and 700m development carry would we be happy ? TLW share price would probably hit £10+. Total have the lolly ($23b). Used $6 per recoverable barrel like the Ugandan deal and assumed 500m recov barrels.....its a nice debt to equity of 30% going forward. Who knows.
jacko07: A bit of a bounce as the shorts cover, but it all looks so dodgy to be long in this one. Oil price down over 10% since the OPEC meeting a week ago. TLW share price has dropped over 15% and is heading toward 150p. I agree with NY Boy TLW will be in serious trouble if oil prices continue to weaken. It will become impossible for TLW to redeem their debt and that will be when they have to start selling assets. That could lead to their crashing in a short time with the big boys buying the good parts. That has to be an even money shot if these markets continue down.
bobsidian: There seems to be expectation that the price of WTI crude oil will drop in the near future below $40 which could drag the price of Brent crude oil down into the mid $45 range. Were this to happen then TLW could see its share price tumble to as low as £1.50 - around its next natural support level. A potentially hefty share price tumble. But then as always when viability concerns become paramount so outsized share price moves to the downside seem to occur. If the above comes to pass and speculation about viability proves unfounded then a sharp reverse back up in the price of oil could give rise to outsized moves to the upside in the share price of TLW. It is noted that since TLW already exited the FTSE100 back at the March review then there will be no additional downside pressure on the share price from forced selling linked to an index exit. All sector bear markets have a conclusion. The problem is that their ultimate conclusion can see share price plunges by sector participants so extreme as to be offputting to any buyer. Interestingly the intraday share price plunge on Wednesday 29 July did have shades of that kind of conclusion. I suppose you look for benchmark share price performances of sector participants to provide an indication of an ultimate low. Perhaps one such benchmark could be the share price of BP. revisiting its £3 low last seen in 2010. Or another could be sight of the share price of RDSB revisiting its 2008 lows around the £12 level. The tracking of either one of those moves could see the share price of TLW at the £1.50 level.
Tullow Oil share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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