Tlou Energy Share Discussion Threads

[wheniamfree] 11/5/2017 20:34

You wait for the sure thing potter, nothing wrong with that if that's your strategy.

I assess risk/reward and look at fundamentals and make a weighted approach. At this point that weight is tipped heavily in favour of reward as such I buy.

Good luck

[pottermagic2310] 11/5/2017 19:52

WILL TLOU tender ?
Will they actually get that viable Bid in by the deadline ?
Will it be as viable & credible as it needs to be at that point in time ?
Will it actually tick all the boxes with the Government by this time next year, assuming it's accepted when initially submitted ?

You know nothing at all about such Bid processes, the obstacles, pitfalls and stages at which failure/rejection might occur... So we will see won't we ?????

Insufficient Reserves and/or insufficient Gas Flow Rates by the submission deadline may equate to no submission.
Fakery or insufficient evidence of such within anything submitted may equate to early rejection or rework.
... and so on...

You claim it's a done deal... NO IT ISN'T.
Anybody interested in investing can infact sit back until Q1 next year.

[wheniamfree] 11/5/2017 16:52

Potter yeah your theory makes sense, Tlou will tender for a legally binding tender and offtake agreement to produce gas and sell electricity. All whilst they are loss making from their "flow rates".

See how ridiculous you sound?

[wheniamfree] 11/5/2017 16:51

Taken from lse after today's conference:

"From Sasha on twitter:- Sat down with TG. Very unlikely that any more shares will ever be issued. And very interestingly the turnaround from RFP submission to award for the Morepule Coal Power Station only took 6 weeks. Exactly the same power consultants working on this tender. They know the process and what the BPC are looking for. As soon as first hint of revenues a number of infrastructure funds, Africa focused investors and etc will be scrambling to lend money to build."

[billyboychrisd] 11/5/2017 14:05

Thank you Potter for your opinion and research. We are now fully educated and can make our own decision.All the best with your investment choices.

[pottermagic2310] 11/5/2017 11:40

p.s. a Duck that paddles around in a Pond endlessly has an equal likelihood of:

a) starving to death
b) getting taken out by an apex predator
c) remembering it has Wings and actually 'taking off' for better times

So that's a 1 in 3 chance of prevailing happily ever after... and 2 chances of 'f@@ked'... THINK ABOUT IT !!!!!!
;-)

[pottermagic2310] 11/5/2017 11:36

F#c£ OFF M@R@NS.... anybody is entitled to their (informed) opinion, looking at actual Facts & Figures, the Business Plan, progress and what may or may not be viable. My opinion is:

a) there is much work to do by TLOU to confirm actual, viable Reserves that will sustain an actual Gas to Power implementation for a significant number of years to meet the Government's requirements

b) this is much similar work to do by TLOU to confirm actual Gas Flow Rates to support a)

c) The Business Plan as of now stretches out to potentially this time next year before a real Project actually kicks-off. So this is just a Duck paddling around in a Pond until then.

d) Only significant News from the Government about the Tender will actually result in this ticking up significantly for Investors... which will be end of Q1 next year... so this is just a Duck paddling in a Pond until then.

You comment as though you believe everything that needs to happen, that may not happen, has already happened - DELUDED F#C£WIT$

[mgellie] 10/5/2017 18:27

Well said WIAMF. Potter is such a sad little cretin - ruins this board

[wheniamfree] 10/5/2017 16:51

Potter do us all a favour and come back on 2018 if that's how you feel.
If IPC and Tlou manage some fast track arrangement as mentioned then great. Failing that I'm happy to keep picking these up, seismic and drills will see some real money added to the ground.

[wheniamfree] 10/5/2017 16:51

Potter do us all a favour and come back on 2018 if that's how you feel.
If IPC and Tlou manage some fast track arrangement as mentioned then great. Failing that I'm happy to keep picking these up, seismic and drills will see some real money added to the ground.

[kmann] 10/5/2017 09:49

presentation

[pottermagic2310] 10/5/2017 08:19

hxxp://tlouenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/2017-05-09-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

RFP response from Gov expected Q1 2018 at earliest - which could be March '18.
No Project work to commence until Q2 2018 at earliest - which could be June '18 onwards.
Personally happy to sit back and keep monitoring the situation well into next year now the Q1 Milestone is clearly defined.

[pottermagic2310] 09/5/2017 11:38

Keeping it simple, yet effective... LOLs
;-)

[coley15] 08/5/2017 21:48

Classy Pottymouth, classy

[wheniamfree] 08/5/2017 11:34

Potter you are trolling, I refer to your comment below:
"Will TLOU win the Bid... not without more convincing 1P and 2P figures and not without viable Flow Rates. Should these 2 things surface in good time, then July could be quite an event for Investors."

What do the flow rates and 1P/2P figures have to do with the tender? The company have already confirmed the package will be of little or no risk to the government. The only people the flow rates and the reserves are import to are the parties rendering since they are the ones assuming risk and assessing how viable the project is. If Tlou are tendering for upto 100mw wouldn't you agree that shows confidence? You are entitled to be wary and hold back nobody is telling you to buy but if your going to post a bearish view at least have a valid argument instead of your usual tripe. As for name calling, that is usually the response of someone who can't think of anything better to say.
Good luck.

[pottermagic2310] 08/5/2017 11:04

I'm not trolling you Pr!ck... I'm genuinely (still) interested but quite apprehensive, due to the concerns clearly expressed.

[wheniamfree] 07/5/2017 22:38

Just to expand on that previous post and again directed at Potters continual trolling and negative views.
I personally am looking beyond the SPV, whether Tlou are granted 10-100MW the story goes beyond this. With 10MW as soon as producing and generating revenue you will again see a natural migration of contingent resources to reserves since the risk is mitigated, the contingent from prospective will also be upgraded.
Outside of this SPV is what matters, Tlou hold 100% of the assets. As soon as the SPV comes online the fields will be further proved and explored in my view. As those reserves continue to grow as will the company value. If Tlou were to only ever produce 10MW and show its commerciality then the value can be attributed to the ground. They wouldn't ever have to produce again, they could expand the field and book significant reserves and they would be a prime takeover target for a bigger player. At which point Tlou would hold its 100% of the assets (with the expanded reserves) and a % ownership to a profitable SPV. most companies that are sold or bid on rarely generate a cent of revenue, they sell the reserves. Same applies for gas and oil and CBM gas is no different.

[wheniamfree] 07/5/2017 22:13

Potter you don't understand the concept of what reserves actually are. Furthermore would IPC, Tlou and QGPA move forward in partnership with tenders for upto 100MW in the first phase if they were not to make a reasonable return? Additionally, how is it that both Oz/US CBM industries generate significant profits from similar basins when their capital/operating costs are higher yet their sales prices are considering less than what will likely come in for Botswana?
You are entitled to your own opinion but given your concerns are merely flow rates and "reserves" I strongly believe you will be eating your hat when the seismic and core drilling is complete. The 3P was recently upgraded by 390% on a small and simple reinterpretation of existing data. That will have been conservative and risked. With the 2D seismic and core holes it will prove the geology and stratigraphy of the field along with seam continuations and gas content/permeability etc.
Do not forget horizontal well technology for CBM to date has not been completed in Botswana and all previous flowed wells from other companies are documented as vertical or vertical under ream with some cases of acid/hydro frack.
The reserves are already there, the gas and field and reserves in my view are not an issue it is a mere formality given what is known of the field to date and I expect a substantial increase in 2P going forward.
Just to add to your last point, it is clear you know little about reserves since you wish to see an increase in 1P. That is proved figures and will only ever be taken from selemo since that is the only producing well. Tlou do not need to flow gas to expand the meaningful reserves as such right now 1P is irrelevant. Core holes and seismic will put to bed your unnecessary concern. Watch.

[pottermagic2310] 07/5/2017 20:33

Sekaname (or Kalahari Energy) are simply not the right sort of Business to take this on, imo. They don't actually look particularly convincing at what they claim to do in Zambia.

On that basis, I suspect TLOU are the only ones really in the running BUT let's not pretend... a huge part of what needs to unfold to provision a "Gas to Power" service to Botswana will actually involve a considerable contribution from IPC, GE and others. This may well mean TLOU's own interest (%) in Energy eventually sold into the GRID may not be as large as others hope for.

Will TLOU win the Bid... not without more convincing 1P and 2P figures and not without viable Flow Rates. Should these 2 things surface in good time, then July could be quite an event for Investors.

[oilandgas1] 06/5/2017 21:19

@wheniamfree - thanks, that is s critical piece of information!

[wheniamfree] 06/5/2017 14:59

From LSE
"Tom no problem.
Just to add to the RFP point, do not forget that it was Tlou who initially approached the government regarding a 10MW gas to power project. The government reviewed the case and upgraded the total to 50MW also granting 50MW to Sekaname to keep things fair and equal. That formed the 100MW of CBM which the government has included in their power projects moving forward.
In my view the chance of not getting atleast 50MW granted is slim to none. There is always a risk until proven of course but the odds are considerably in tlous favour so much so that I'd personally attribute a 90% success rate that they'll get it."



Also

[wheniamfree] 06/5/2017 14:12

Also from LSE
"Flow rates seems to be one of the biggest things the market are getting hung up about and shouldn't.
The flow rates are typically given and can be used to calculate the number of wells required per MW along with life of the wells etc and their profitability.
Botswana is a country that currently has no CBM gas, nor do it's surrounding countries and as such there is no agreed gas sales price. This is a unique situation. It isn't like other plays such as AST/SOU etc where an offtake sales price is known because that resource already exists and is produced in local economy as such a sale price needs to be agreed and until it is it would not make commercial sense to disclose them.
At present we know the figures for coal, diesel, import and projected figures for solar so an educated guess can be made at where the price for gas should lay. Even at a substantial discount to diesel and import it should make the company very profitable.
The reserves booked by srk will have been done on a conservative estimate and since no sales figure has been agreed they will need to propose a conservative figure for their calculations and likely to be below the expected/likely figure that the IPA will be. If reserves can be booked at a much less figure and show to be commercial then that tells you all you need to know at this point regardless of how many wells are needed etc etc as it is irrelevant at that point and will only affect the TOTAL profits made.
With the signing of IPC and now quantum coming on board and the mention that Tlou will be the first project for them to be involved in on commercialising gas they will not be getting involved unless they see the potentials. Nor would Tony and the team at Tlou continue to storm ahead and tender for upto 100mw if it was only going to make buttons, they would never get it off the ground.
Comparisons against Tlou are difficult as they are unique in the country they operate however the geology has been pointed at comparable basins in both Aus and the US. All of which operate profitably with lower sales prices than those expected to be agreed in Botswana and also higher capex/opex than those expected to be made in Botswana. In theory, if they can do it in US/Aus profitably why wouldn't they be able to do it in Botswana given the figures stand more favourably?
The other and more important reason I believe you will not get flow rates right now is that the 100mw tender has been granted to both Tlou and one other company (Sekaname).
Sekaname have no EIS in place and no booked reserves, this instantly puts them years behind Tlou before they can continue and progress their project. They do however have wells and from reading literature it appears those wells are flowing gas and have been perhaps for some time. They appear not to have taken the horizontal drill method and have used vertical wells with a potential method of fracking involved. As such their flow rates will be very different from tlous. They could be worse although they could be better however one thing for sure is, if Tlou were to release flow rates then sekaname would have a dinstinct advantage on how he's to produce gas going forward, this could also adjust the tender they submit to government for their share of the 100mw and ultimately change their methods moving forward if for example they knew horizontal methods were more profitable. Why would Tlou give them this knowledge at this stage? Simple, they wouldn't.
Tlou and Sekaname are the only two companies tendering for upto 100mw, it maybe that government award the whole amount to one party but given that Sekaname are years behind and the government are keen to progress it doesn't seem like the natural solution. Do not forget that prior to this RFP Tlou and Sekaname were granted 50mw each so imho the worst Tlou will receive is that portion. Not a bad move if it generates revenues of $50-75m a year for an £18m MCAP."

Kalahari Energy and Sekaname are one in the same.
hxxp://www.dailynews.gov.bw/mobile/news-details.php?nid=13052&flag=?r=1

[wheniamfree] 06/5/2017 12:13

Taken from LSE
"Scot I don't think you need look so far ahead. It is of my opinion given what we have seen to date that the government will back the CBM project and as been alluded to, Tlou are in pole position. If or more appropriately "when" the tender is agreed and the IPA signed the project is valid and the cash potentials can start to be valued in as a % or a lower projected PE to that valid for the sector. In simple terms, a signed deal for CBM offtake sales should start to show on the books before a unit is even sold to its taker. In the mean time, we have the other parralel running which will further add value to the book scheduled for mid this year. The expansion of reserves, when the ground work begins and if the figures are increased as anticipated and added to reserves that all falls to the bottom line. If we use your analogy of SOU. They have proven gas and flow however like many companies with large valuations they are valued on their assets. If Tlou prove the reserves as I expect them to in the near term, then the same theory applies as it does elsewhere. The value again has to be attributed to the company and the NAV will significantly increase. The company are already trading at a discount as explained below but it can't and won't be ignored forever. With the above in mind, id think you'll see your projected valuation increase begin much much sooner than your 12-24 month time frame."