Time Finance Share Discussion Threads

[hedgehog 100] 30/6/2024 12:41

Smithie6 - 21 Jan 2024 - 11:37:15 - 478 of 662 Time Finance PLC - TIME

"I posted X days ago that I reckoned that the SME lending competitor to TIME, MFX, was a better investment & I gave numbers to support my claim.

Just for fun let's have a little competition, MFX versus TIME over the coming months, to the end of June '24.

Using mid prices.

MFX 19p
TIME 33.2p"




Smithie6 - 27 Jun 2024 - 13:51:20 - 644 of 662 Time Finance PLC - TIME
share price competition MFX vs TIME

"X months ago I posted this idea/proposal, with the end of June as the end date.
Let us see which share is winning. (end of June is at mkt close tomorrow Friday, not today)

...let us use the 20 day moving average price to get share price values, *1, noting that the share price for TIME has been moving about a bit.
using mid prices

was it the end of Dec. '23 as the starting point ?

MFX. start 16.5p : end (1 day early) 19p
2.5p increase on 16.5p
% increase = 15%

TIME start 36.0p : end (1 day early) 41.5p
increase of 5.5p on 36.0p
% increase= 15%

*1. except, will use current TIME share price since bounced from a dip, the 20 day MA would give an overly pessimistic/depressed result.

CONCLUSION.
A draw !!!!

both +15% !

that is a big surprise.

(I'm an MFX fan but its share price is currently well down on its maximum during the last 6 months, in part due to a complete lack of news flow. TIME is much better than MFX in producing info/newsflow to the mkt. MFX is controlled by a few big shareholders so imo the bod is not interested in devoting time to providing newsflow to the non-controlling shareholders & are instead hopefully busy trying to develop the co.)"




Well I'm always up for a bit of fun, so please let me join in!

The final s.p.s concerned, as at close of trading on Friday 28th. June 2024, were as follows:-

MFX 19p = 0 change

TIME 43.25p = +30.27%


So well done to TIME on a cracking rise & win.

Despite Smithie6 having the considerable advantage of being able to cherry pick the most favourable start and end dates for this contest.

And a zero for a zero ... how very appropriate!


But perhaps more concerning is Smithie's attempt to rewrite history with his made up b.s. in post 644 above.

Look through Smithie's posting history, on both TIME & MFX, and you will see that he never said any such thing as he is now claiming.


Goebbels himself would be proud.

[red ninja] 29/6/2024 07:47

Investors Champion (pay for tipsite) update on Time Finance dated 27/6/24



Trading update for the year ended 31 May 2024 (27/06/24)

TIME delivered significant increases across its key performance indicators, with revenue and profitability ahead of market expectations.

Supported by Own-Book deal origination up 25% to £91.5m and 18% growth in the Gross Lending Book to £200m, revenue rose 20% to £33.0m and pre-tax profit was 38% higher at £5.8m. In a challenging environment this is impressive growth, ahead of expectations.

The increase in revenue has been primarily driven by the growth in both the Invoice Finance division and the 'Hard Asset' subset of the wider Asset division. They are both areas which operate in the larger-ticket, more secured lending space, and they now comprise over 75% of the Group's entire lending book.

There is strong future visibility of earnings with Unearned Income up 19% to £25.2m at 31 May 2024.

Despite the big growth in the lending book, net deals in arrears reduced to 5% of the gross lending book while net bad debt write-offs halved to just 1% of the average lending book (FY 2022/23: 2%).

Net tangible assets at the May year end were 13% higher at £38.5m, marginally greater than the current market capitalisation of £37m (share price 40 pence).

Extended and enhanced funding facilities means they still had headroom in excess of £60m at 31 May 2024.

Broker forecasts
Following the trading update covering the 12 months to the end of May 2024 (see above), the house broker upgraded forecasts again. For the year ending May 2024 these are for revenue of £33m, pre-tax profit of £5.8m and earnings per share of 4.7 pence (growth 34%).

For May 2025 forecasts were also lifted to revenue of £34.5m, pre-tax profit to £6.9m and earnings per share of 5.6 pence (growth +19%).

With the significant government support packages no longer in place post-Covid, and with the ever-increasing economic challenges facing small businesses, access to finance will be a key priority for SMEs over the coming months and years.

Bonkers Bargain appeal
At the current share price of 40p (initially 17p) the market capitalisation is still a lowly c£37m, a c4% discount to net tangible assets at 31 May 2024 of £38.5m, which has also been subjected to meaningful provisions. Despite the strong share price performance over the past 12 months the PE multiple is a lowly 7x forecast earnings for the year to May 2025. Prior to the pandemic impacting returns, which pulled down earnings per share to 2.6p for the year ending May 2020, this business consistently delivered earnings of more than 6p and 6.8p in 2019 - net income of £6.35m. This equates to a normalised price earnings multiple of approx 6.6x.

While the shares have had a good run over recent months, they remain well down on previous highs and this business continues to look ridiculously cheap on many levels. The Group's multi-product tailored offering to UK SMEs, its own-book lending strategy and its quality of service have become ever more appreciated by introducers and we struggle to believe the shares can remain at these lowly levels for much longer. If they continue to languish, an acquirer will surely pounce.

[harrywilliam] 28/6/2024 20:11

Yes I took profits today. Just over 15 percent for 2 days work. If it does pull back I will buy back in for longer term. It was only a trade for me this time and it paid off most the cruise I just got off. Happy days

[eeza] 28/6/2024 19:33

The problem is that the next update (Finals) isn't until 25 Sept (12 weeks away).

SPs always drift on AIM without a stream of news.

[smithie6] 28/6/2024 18:52

..imo there is likely to be a pause, for a few days, while people that paid 38p only a few days ago sell to pocket 6p/share profit (eg. perhaps henrywilliam)....
...personally I think the share price will then go up again

[lennonsalive] 28/6/2024 16:29

Think TIME held up well seeing as yesterday had a big rise and a few day traded it.

[smithie6] 28/6/2024 07:56

the discount to TNAV does seem surprising, noting the revenue & profit growth in recent years....and that the TNAV/share has been steadily rising every year.

(TNAV/share is an area where TIME shares beat MFX shares:
disclosure, I hold more MFX than TIME)

[rivaldo] 28/6/2024 07:39

Here's a link to Simon Thompson's overnight tip in the IC - subscriber-only though, so I can only access the intro:



"This lender has upgraded earnings again – and it's easy to see why

Guidance has been upgraded three times since November and economic tailwinds should keep the party going

June 27, 2024

by Simon Thompson

Third earnings upgrade since November 2023

Profit expectations upgraded for 2024 and 2025 financial years

Arrears and bad debts declining as percentage of loan book

Forward PE ratio of 7 and 13 per cent discount to NAV

Time Finance (TIME:41p) has upgraded earnings guidance for the third time since November 2023 and prompted analysts to lift their estimates for both the 2024 and 2025 financial years, too.

The Bath-based group is an alternative provider of finance to the high street and challenger banks. Specifically, it provides three main finance products – invoice finance, asset finance and loan finance – to more than 10,000 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for their day-to-day working capital requirements and to grow their businesses over the longer term."

[smithie6] 28/6/2024 07:34

davidosh
if of interest I picked up ~£12k worth yesterday, after seeing the % price rise & then reading the RNS.

up £600 so far, which is nice. (update: now ~£400)

(previously bt some at ~28p but took profit later on, perhaps 34-36p area)

[gswredland] 28/6/2024 04:22

Great prediction Harry!
I remember saying I thought that was too optimistic
ST of IC has ben a fan for a while now. Good to see him reiterate a buy

[davidosh] 27/6/2024 22:23

I have just spotted a very good write up by Simon Thompson of the Investors Chronicle who is updating investors following the company trading update and new broker forecasts. He rates TIME as a BUY

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 20:54

harrywilliam, yesterday you posted

"Back to 44p on results and a nice 20 percent trade I’m thinking. Positioned for this outcome today and yesterday, fingers crossed"

well done, you bought 24-48 hours before today's rise !!

-----
if you have any similar hunches...feel free to send me a PM to let me know ! in advance !

[harrywilliam] 27/6/2024 19:30

First time today with phone signal. My optimism spot on hee hee

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 14:47

well done with RTC

[davidosh] 27/6/2024 14:36

I think there are lots of companies that have done well compared with their share prices in 2023 but to be fair TIME has been ahead of expectations almost every single update for the past two years and so we are seeing a steady rerating and a lovely chart since September 2022.

You cannot argue with 16p all the way to 44p now.

Intercede are doing well and I held years ago when they were going nowhere. However if you are mentioning top performers in the last year then look no further than my largest holding RTC Group which has done six times share price growth and also paying a huge dividend but still only on about seven times this years eps.

Makes up for the 30% of the portfolio that underperform or like Surface Transforms lose 95% of their value.

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 13:33

..yes, with the rise in price at TIME today it looks set to win the 6 month race vs MFX, just.

------

although out ahead of both TIME & MFX over the last 6 months has been Intercede, lse:IGP, up 40-50%. :-)

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 13:23

daviddosh wrote
"I hold both but far more comfortable with the way TIME report their figures and ..."

you have my vote on that !
...quality of MFX reporting of financial numbers & the text used by MFX dirs to go with the fin. numbers has been very poor. :-(

[davidosh] 27/6/2024 13:15

Smithie6....I hold both but far more comfortable with the way TIME report their figures and regularly update the market so my position size is much greater in this company.

I think TIME will also be 10% higher than the 41.5p you are quoting by end of play tomorrow which is the six month end date....it is already 43p offered

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 12:51

share price competition MFX vs TIME

X months ago I posted this idea/proposal, with the end of June as the end date.
Let us see which share is winning. (end of June is at mkt close tomorrow Friday, not today)

...let us use the 20 day moving average price to get share price values, *1, noting that the share price for TIME has been moving about a bit.
using mid prices

was it the end of Dec. '23 as the starting point ?

MFX. start 16.5p : end (1 day early) 19p
2.5p increase on 16.5p
% increase = 15%

TIME start 36.0p : end (1 day early) 41.5p
increase of 5.5p on 36.0p
% increase= 15%

*1. except, will use current TIME share price since bounced from a dip, the 20 day MA would give an overly pessimistic/depressed result.

CONCLUSION.
A draw !!!!

both +15% !

that is a big surprise.

(I'm an MFX fan but its share price is currently well down on its maximum during the last 6 months, in part due to a complete lack of news flow. TIME is much better than MFX in producing info/newsflow to the mkt. MFX is controlled by a few big shareholders so imo the bod is not interested in devoting time to providing newsflow to the non-controlling shareholders & are instead hopefully busy trying to develop the co.)

[smithie6] 27/6/2024 12:41

hastings

you write about shares & have interviews with dirs.

Can you possibly expand on why you are interested in how much nett current cash the company has ?

Since I don't see any relevance at all in that number.

------

and if the nett current cash number was high, let us say £30m for arguments sake, it would be bad imo since it would mean that the money was not lent out (& earning a much higher % rate than if deposited in Govt treasuries)

[hastings] 27/6/2024 12:01

On a forward PE of 7 (FY 2025) at the current price based on the latest Cavendish forecast and with net cash pencilled in at £5.4m then the shares continue to look extremely cheap.

[the oak tree] 27/6/2024 11:43

Thanks ichitrader. If thats right and bad debts are just 1% then happy days.

GLA

[davidosh] 27/6/2024 09:52

I think ichitrader has it correct there. TIME gets enough business referred without needing to advertise or pay fees to get any additional deals but in the past it did not have the capacity nor the ability to take it all on for itself so passed through to other lenders who paid TIME commission. Now they can cover nearly all the business for themselves and maybe just pass on riskier business that other lenders will still want.

So a good place to be.

[cb7] 27/6/2024 09:51

Its a pity they didnt state the cash position in this trading update. Despite making 2.1m PAT at the interims a few months back, cash actually declined by 2.7m.

[ichitrader] 27/6/2024 09:26

I've never looked too much into this so I could be wrong however I used to work in the asset finance industry so have some idea of how things work. A 3rd part deal would be financed by another lender, for example a bank and Time would earn a commission. Own book lending involves Time lending the money so they get all the profit on the deal (and they take the risk). This advertising costs aren't directly affected - they are just financing the deals that would've come to them anyway in a different manner.