Thistle Hotels Share Discussion Threads

[besbury] 21/2/2003 11:52

Due to general excitment in the hotel sector, regarding possible bidding war for 6C.?

[skyship] 21/2/2003 10:11

Anyone picked up yet on the reason for the 10% jump today?

[ainsoph] 05/2/2003 07:44

• Broker Forecasts
Fiscal year end: 2002-12-31
Sales per share: 42.00p (42.00p)
EPS: 5.30p (5.31p)
EPS Growth: -29.24% (-29.09%)
Dividend: 5.14p (5.15p)

Fiscal year end: 2003-12-31
Sales per share: 39.00p (39.00p)
EPS: 5.80p (5.90p)
EPS Growth: 7.41% (12.06%)
Dividend: 5.30p (5.33p)

Fiscal year end: 2004-12-31
Sales per share: 43.00p (43.00p)
EPS: 6.61p (6.80p)
EPS Growth: 15.88% (16.14%)
Dividend: 5.37p (5.48p)


• Broker Recommendations
Strong Buy: 0 (0)
Buy: 6 (5)
Neutral: 3 (1)
Sell: 2 (1)
Strong Sell: 0 (1)
Total: 11 (8)

Note: numbers in brackets denote last week's figure

[ttg100] 04/2/2003 15:52

added some more shorts

[matthewa] 04/2/2003 15:16

ANy assocaition with Orb @ the moment is VERY VERY dodgy.

[ainsoph] 04/2/2003 13:39

You miss the point - they are not aimed at US and therefore it matters less whether they fly or not ...... peeps will soon get used to the situation and life will go on

[ttg100] 04/2/2003 13:36

>> ains - it doesn't matter what the ads are or what the
promtions are - they will not fly - imho

[ainsoph] 04/2/2003 13:32

Suggest you look at latest ads and promotions ..... sometimes you can be too close



ains

[ttg100] 04/2/2003 13:26

>> ainsoph - sorry but not true - during foot and mouth/last
gulf war/911 - London hotels were empty - americans will not
travel the moment it starts - i am in travel business

[ainsoph] 04/2/2003 13:19

Not sure that will effect any m+ activity in the short/medium term and most promotional activity is not currently directed their way



ains

[ttg100] 04/2/2003 13:12

added to shorts -when the action starts you can forget
americans travelling

[ainsoph] 04/2/2003 12:32

February 04, 2003

By Nic Hopkins

Thistle blossoms on predatory interest



THISTLE HOTELS, the biggest hotel operator in London, shrugged off its recent tribulations and returned to the spotlight yesterday amid reports that a predator might be running a sliderule over the company.
The shares were set running by a Sunday newspaper report that suggested the company's bankers, Royal Bank of Scotland, had appointed Ernst & Young to conduct a business review amid fears over its trading position.

Although Thistle issued a statement that strongly rejected the report, analysts suggested that it could be a case of crossed wires and that a firm of consultants, not necessarily Ernst & Young, might be reviewing Thistle for a third party, rather than on behalf of the company itself.

One mooted suggestion was that the putative predator could be Bank of Scotland, which already has a strong presence in the sector through the likes of Macdonald Hotels, unchanged at 209½p, and the privately owned Rocco Forte Hotels.

Thistle shares, trading at about 150p as recently as July, rose 4p to 102p.

[ttg100] 03/2/2003 17:41

i am still short

[ainsoph] 03/2/2003 07:49

THISTLE HOTELS PLC ("THISTLE")

Thistle notes the press speculation on 2 February 2003 that its bankers led by
the Royal Bank of Scotland have appointed Ernst & Young to carry out a review of
Thistle's business. Thistle confirms that neither the Royal Bank of Scotland nor
Ernst & Young has had any discussions with Thistle in this connection. The Royal
Bank of Scotland has confirmed that it has not instigated any such business
review. Thistle currently has no outstanding loans or debts with any Bank
including the Royal Bank of Scotland.

Thistle released a trading update on 16 January 2003 and, as planned, will
announce preliminary results for the financial year ended 29 December 2002 on 3
March 2003.

[ainsoph] 02/2/2003 12:22

Banks call in Ernst & Young to check out Thistle Hotels
By Lauren Mills and Damian Reece (Filed: 02/02/2003)


Thistle Hotels' bankers, led by the Royal Bank of Scotland, have hired Ernst & Young to carry out a review of the business which could lead to sweeping management changes and disposals at the hotels group.

Although Thistle has around £320m in the bank, the banks are thought to be alarmed at the group's precarious trading position. They are also said to be questioning the ability of the management to steer the company through a period of uncertainty in the market.

In January, Thistle revealed a 10.5 per cent drop in average room rates in London last year. It also refused to give details of how it planned to spend the cash raised through the disposal of 31 regional hotels to Orb Estates last March for £600m. As part of the deal, Thistle retained management contracts to run the hotels.

The group also admitted it would be difficult to forecast turnover for 2003 because it remained "cautious as to when there will be a recovery in general hotel trading conditions".

Ernst & Young is expected to report back to the banks on the company's overall financial strength within the next two weeks. E&Y is likely to focus on current trading, as well as prospects for improving performance in a relentlessly difficult market.

The accountancy firm will also advise the banks on a range of strategic options including further disposals.

Thistle's shares rallied 9p to 98p at the end of last week after Investec Securities cited "corporate activity" as a reason for taking the stock off its "sell" list.

Ian Burke, the chief executive, is under mounting pressure to clarify whether he plans to return the cash to shareholders or spend it on acquisitions.

His indecision is causing friction among Thistle's leading institutional shareholders who hold differing views about what should be done with the cash.

The two biggest shareholders, each of which has a seat on the board, are BIL International, which owns 45.8 per cent, and the Government of Singapore which has a 13.1 per cent stake.

Other large investors include Havelock Investments and Tweedy Brown Company.

A spokesman for the company insisted it knew nothing of E&Y's review. He also confirmed that Burke would update the City with a strategic plan for the group when it announces its year-end results in early March.

[ainsoph] 01/2/2003 19:34

Investec Securities took the stock off its "sell" list citing among other factors the potential for "corporate action".

[ainsoph] 30/1/2003 09:54

duh

fancy saying that just before a 7.3% gain


I often wonder if you goodfellas know about TRADING

[ainsoph] 20/1/2003 00:11

17.01.03 :+0, (108) positive broker comments following yesterday's trading statement, dealers said. In a note published this morning, UBS Warburg upgraded the shares to 'buy' from 'hold', arguing that the shares now look inexpensive if investors are prepared to look through the risk of any conflict in the Gulf.

The broker pointed out that the company's end of year trading update indicated, as expected, that H2 was a period of rising occupancies but a fall in AARR (annualised average room rate), due to promotions and tactical room rate promotions.

UBS Warburg added that since the sale of its provincial hotels in March 2002, the company's shares have slipped around 28% and the group's enterprise value has fallen nearly 35 pct, which is a worse performance than any of the mid-cap hotel companies with the exception of Millennium & Copthorne. The fall of all UK hotel company shares due to prolonged poor trading would logically suggest that asset values are overstated.

However, recent transactions from Jarvis Hotels and Hilton Group at net asset value suggest that this is not the case, although it remains cautious. Deutsche Bank are also positive on the stock and repeat their 'buy' recommendation on the stock with a 170 pence target.

[l2e] 17/1/2003 07:35

good morning.....uninspiring update....not much too bosst them yet also........sadam to speak in one hour....strange how quickly the weapons inspectors found those empty chemical weapons eh....and on the aniversary of the gulf war as well....all looks a bit phoney to me......all the best

[ainsoph] 16/1/2003 23:16

Times


January 17, 2003

Thistle facing investor pressure
By Dominic Walsh



PRESSURE is mounting on Thistle Hotels to return up to £200 million to shareholders amid growing speculation that it has failed to identify any suitable acquisition targets.
The group, London's biggest hotel operator, has about £370 million of cash on its balance sheet after last year's sale of 37 of its 55 hotels to Orb Estates for £600 million. At the time, it said it would return cash to investors only if it was unable to spend it on expansion.

In a trading update yesterday, covering the year to December 29, Thistle made no reference to the matter and Ian Burke, group chief executive, said the statement was "not the appropriate time to be making comments on strategy".

Analysts expressed disappointment at the lack of any news. One said: "This is not the market for buying hotels and it is clear there are no acquisitions in the pipeline. If there is still no news in March (when Thistle reports full-year results), investors will justifiably start to get annoyed."

Thistle yesterday reported a big upturn in room occupancy in the second half of 2002 but admitted this had been at the expense of room rate. It said revenue per available room (revpar) was £58.36, up 2.7 per cent on the same period the year before, and 5.4 per cent higher than the first half of the year. Revpar for 2002 as a whole fell 6.8 per cent to £56.81, with occupancy up 2.6 points to 76.2 per cent and the room rate 10 per cent lower at £74.56.

Mr Burke said that, given the uncertain economic and political outlook, it was still too early to determine when the recovery would come. "There are very few people in any sector who are making any forecasts."

He confirmed that Thistle was still pursuing a legal claim against Orb Estates for £15 million of the £600 million it had failed to pay by the due date, adding that the property firm had until today to respond to the hotel group's claim. Orb has previously indicated an intention to lodge a counterclaim for £45 million, the amount it claims it overpaid because of erroneous trading information provided by Thistle.

Orb, which has withdrawn plans to launch a takeover bid for Thistle, is also at the centre of a scandal involving Izodia, the failed dot-com venture, where money is alleged to have been fraudulently removed

[ainsoph] 16/1/2003 20:50

'Although the in-line results were to be welcomed, analysts maintained that Thistle only managed to achieve its 2002 targets due to heavy discounting at its hotels, the majority of which are based in London. The average room rate fell 8.7% in 2002 as a result of changes in business mix with fewer business travellers, combined with a number of tactical room rate reductions, said Thistle. "We are concerned as to the company's ability to swiftly recover average room rates," said WestLB, which repeated its 'underperform' recommendation in the wake of the trading update.

The German broker explained that it will hard for Thistle to force through significant room rate rises in 2003, due to the cut throat nature of the London hotel market and its "limited brand strength" in the capital. As a result, WestLB said it was unlikely that Thistle would experience a "significant recovery in trading" prior to 2004.

CAI Cheuvreux agreed that Thistle's trading statement provided confirmation that the "trading picture is not good". However, the French broker retained its 'outperform' rating on the stock due to the strong likelihood that Thistle will either be gobbled up by a larger rival, or return a sizeable portion of its 350m cash pile to investors. "The company is now very much in play.

In the absence of any corporate activity, the company will be forced to announce what it intends to do with its large cash pile," said Cheuvreux in a note to clients this morning. The broker reckons that a takeover of Thistle is a distinct possibility, given that BIL International Ltd, Thistle's majority shareholder with a 46% holding, is believed to be a "willing seller". Apart from its healthy bank balance and BIL's willingness to sell, Thistle's other chief attraction is its leading position in the London hotel market -- it has 13% of the city's room-stock -- making it an ideal target for any group wanting to get a strong foothold in the capital.