Thinksmart Share Discussion Threads

[euclid5] 04/8/2021 09:59

From Simon's IC article, read through value, TSL has a min 40% gain from today's price. unless TSL gets a bid from a larger co to get the 10% stake along with it's other business

" Thinksmart’s 10 per cent stake in Clearpay therefore has a read through valuation of £216m, and £140m (132p a share) on a fully diluted basis"

[eezymunny] 04/8/2021 09:35

Is the algorithm for the Clearpay put/call valuation in the public domain?

[bwm2] 03/8/2021 08:14

riddles1
Your argument is entirely logical and overlooked. This will probably be driven by wishing to buy in their larger North American minority

[paulbutcher1999] 03/8/2021 07:26

Agreed - looks like could be 50%+ gain from here crystallised within months.

[riddles1] 03/8/2021 06:21

I believe APT have agreed in their terms with Square to seek to eliminate Minority Interests PRIOR to completion of the merger. So this goes further than contractual arrangements between TSL and APT which get triggered after. I take this to mean its likely APT will try and negotiate something fair and reasonable for parties to buy out the 10%. This i assume means a FLOOR would be the formula calculation. So probably means something happening some time prior to merger getting completed and at a level above the floor. The APT deal with Square involves having employee options transferred over to equivalent values and expiries in the new entity. Does this mean the 3.5% that has been net off the 10% carrying value in the balance sheet (as it would be passed on to TSL employees) will be crystalised or not? APT/Square may try to roll these and lock in key staff. So this could be all part of the negotiation, but would think it would have to be a decent outcome or TSL won't agree and can just rely on the formula floor. This floor is probably going up as business metrics improve over time.

[bwm2] 03/8/2021 02:42

Apt up 12.4% on big volume already

[29palms] 02/8/2021 20:22

Square showing a healthy gain this evening in US

[paulbutcher1999] 02/8/2021 12:52

Simon T article this morning gices thinksmart a 140p sum-of-the-parts valuation based on the latest news.

[bigberty99] 02/8/2021 12:29

It ain't worth 100p

[bigberty99] 02/8/2021 12:29

Think smartSELL NOW

[paulbutcher1999] 02/8/2021 11:55

Crazy how still not going through 100p.

[diversification] 02/8/2021 11:15

I would envisage that the larger combined organization would want to take advantage of these improved terms and purchase the outstanding 10%. With a combined product mix leading to an escalation in growth, waiting until 2023 would only cost the combined entity more money.

A bid well in excess of 100p should be concluded in short order.

[bwm2] 02/8/2021 10:49

It's not up to TSL. However, APT will have the right to exercise their call option early and for cash following the change of control which is expected to complete by end Sept 2021. I hope that they don't as TSL's prospect are vey bright

[padraico] 02/8/2021 10:47

I took my money and ran today at 88.80 - may get in again if it dips - but unless the offer price is upped significantly I imagine that is a good level. Anyway DYOR and best of luck all.

[bigberty99] 02/8/2021 10:40

Take ya monies and run

[xboxkoalabear] 02/8/2021 10:35

so take the money and run or wait it out for a higher share price then?

[kadvfn1] 02/8/2021 09:42

Surely a buyout should be on the card now. Square and afterpay will have a whole year to increase more value of the new company before the put/call option date for TSL. One can only see new square/AFT going higher from here...

[diversification] 02/8/2021 09:33

It makes you wonder if negotiations will take place to see if a buyout can occur with favorable terms to TSL prior to 2023. I would envisage a buyout of that scale would have a keen eye on the remaining stake.

[xboxkoalabear] 02/8/2021 09:25

Will Thinksmart press the button on their put option? If you are a holder of Thinksmart, is it better to hold or just sell now? What is the upside opportunity for holding ThinkSmart shares now ?

[kadvfn1] 02/8/2021 08:29

What is happening wt TSL shares of APT? Do we know how many squares share does that equate to for TSL?

[bwm2] 02/8/2021 07:08

Well something interesting to read in the morning ie APT results Whilst North America growth takes the headlines at +175%, UK was a stunning +242% ie an increase from 0.6bn to 1.45 bn. Remember the Clearpay figures now include EU trading that started in March 2021 and contributed 0.35 bn sales. Uk sales grew from 5.4% of total to 7% and the growth in merchants was highest. There seems to be an error in the results notice in that it refers to 501% growth in uk merchants to 6.7k (+148% in North America)but this is the total figure for Clearpay in EU. Later it refers to UK increase as over 5k new merchants, so I will use this to give a total of 6.1k ie 6.2% of total (2% 2020). Late fees are reduced which should assist with the tortuous regulation dialogue - what happened to the May conclusion?

Well done TSL management.

The Square scheme of arrangement was at AUD 126.21 a 30.6% premium but a 21% discount to the APT high of AUD 160.05

I know nothing about Square so shall read with interest rational

[29palms] 02/8/2021 00:03

Afterpay FY21 Trading Update

[29palms] 02/8/2021 00:00

Joint Investor Presentation - Square and Afterpay

[29palms] 01/8/2021 23:40

Square to buy Australian giant Afterpay in a $29 billion all-stock deal