Thinksmart Share Discussion Threads

[carcosa] 01/3/2021 07:28

"However APT clearly don't value ClearPay as much as its currently worth "

Why do you say that? Are you using the stated option value as the total underlying asset valuation of Clearpay? If so,then that would be incorrect. The option valuation has two parts; intrinsic value and time. There is still two years to go!

If you want to estimate what ClearPay is worth then you will have to do some modelling e.g. Black-Scholes and you may find yourself with a very pleasant surprise.

[shaker44] 01/3/2021 03:35

I agree. Atp (and ZIP) had got v frothy but the growth fundamentals are still there. Just have to be patient and ride the bumps before Thinksmart value is realized later.

[xboxkoalabear] 28/2/2021 21:51

I own AfterPay shares in Australia and also Thinksmart. The loss was circa $70m AUD and a large component of that was revaluing the ClearPay option - so Afterpay are putting the ballast down on their balance sheet for eventually buying out Thinksmart. However APT clearly don't value ClearPay as much as its currently worth - perhaps to make their bottom line better - or maybe they only value ThinkSmart on the basis of how the UK business standalone performs. Either way I think ThinkSmart continues to be undervalued providing APT doesn't fall off a cliff.

[kadvfn1] 25/2/2021 09:00

Also this note they are raising to buy out their US operation. I don't think it's a million miles to think that some of that might be used to buy out thinksmart too. Just a thought...

[carcosa] 25/2/2021 08:16

bwm2

That is IMO very debatable. If Afterpay wanted to buy out Thinksmart/Clearpay then that would not directly involve the put/call option. It would have to be an agreed sale and that requires a shareholder vote. I, like you, believe the value of Clearpay is much higher than it currently is and most likely the Board of Directors believe the same, I would judge.

Given how the businesses are progressing, a sale now of Clearpay would be around what the shareholders believe the value of the business would be in a couple of years. So if tomorrow we received an offer of 224p. I would vote for it.

It's interesting to note that the primary reason Afterpay failed to make a profit was the substantial financial loss on their put option for Clearpay (going from practically nothing last year to over A$60m today). It 'may' be a strategic move on their part to rid themselves of that financial loss if it enables them to show a profit. I don't know.... merely surmising.

Will be interested to see what Simon Thompson's take on it will be.

[sogoesit] 25/2/2021 08:13

For those wanting the ASX releases (referred to by bwm):

Presentation:


H1 Report:

[bwm2] 25/2/2021 07:37

Carcosa
Surely its in our best interests to let the option run to completion and benefit from further UK growth. Our % of the pie will be smaller but the slice larger. The only negative is that they seem to be slow off the mark in asia and slow to receive approval in Europe - but no surprise there then

[carcosa] 25/2/2021 07:31

Remarkable news from Afterpay today resulting in the group’s shares going into a trading halt on Thursday morning as its brokers launched a whopping $1.5 billion trade. Money to be used to fold its US subsidiary inside the rest of the group and simplify the corporate structure with a view to a US listing.

Assuming Thinksmart remains tradable today then I can only see this as good news for TSL. Particularly as a simplified corporate structure implies (with rose tinted glasses) that they will buyout TSL sooner rather than later.

Oh, abd AfterPays business results were great too.

[bwm2] 25/2/2021 06:42

Last Year TSL results were on 4th March

[bwm2] 25/2/2021 06:19

There is a great deal to read in the Apt report and presentation docs. I strongly recommend you read all especially the presentation sections on business development, competitive advantage, symbiosis with merchants and the state of play with regulation. A couple of features that caught my eye in respect of UK are that active customers grew at +23% cf +20% overall and surprisingly only +20% USA and at 1.6m they represent 12.2%of the 13.1m total. in Nov we were 1m of 9.9m ie 10.1%. In that month we were 9.5% of sales. Looking at sales for the 6 months we were £800m of 9.8bn ie 8.1% as a result of the steep growth over the 6 months and in particular in Dec. Overall 91% sales are from repeat customers and 70% customers active in store started on line. Shares suspended pending completion of bond sales to take their ownership of the USA business to 93% from 80%. There is speculation of a duel listing and most notably no trading guidance post Dec 20. Is this the reason? Exciting times ahead

[carcosa] 24/2/2021 10:27

Afterpay will release HY21 Results on Thursday 25 February 2021.
A briefing will be held via a live audio webcast at 10.00am (Melbourne time).
The webcast will be accessible via this link: hxxps://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/mvcds7uk

Afterpay will have to issue a stonking H1 to justify the current share price.

[shaker44] 23/2/2021 11:02

Seems odd to. Me that people are selling at this level. Even at 75

[bwm2] 16/2/2021 10:17

Forager have sold another 1%, no wonder the share price has been restricted

[charlotte2020] 12/2/2021 22:40

This share is very cheap compared to its NAV

[toptomcat] 10/2/2021 08:15

Using ST formula based on APT current price, sum of parts now around 140p. Still 40% upside on this modest valuation

[bwm2] 10/2/2021 06:23

Apt hit a 4th consecutive high at 159.5 and closed at 158.5

[finkie] 09/2/2021 10:46

Can someone more knowledgeable update me here are the above posts related to the afterpay option? What are the maths here? thanks,

[bwm2] 09/2/2021 05:53

Sorry Friday close 151.3
Mon close 153.5 +2.2 (intraday new high 156.5)
Tues close 152.1 -1.4 (intraday new high 159.0)

[bwm2] 08/2/2021 10:46

Shaker
135p with Apt at 151 aud at todays close. Also hit an intra day high of 156.5

[shaker44] 08/2/2021 09:37

And strongly tipped by ST in IC, with a read through value of 128p. But only a modest gain still. Maybe people don't trust the Clearpay read through valuation