The Mission Marketing Share Discussion Threads

[hastings] 05/8/2013 03:10

May be of interest.
hxxp://www.privatepunter.co.uk/Companies/mission-marketing

[aleman] 13/7/2013 15:49

Marketing budgets show strongest growth since 2007.

hxxp://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/cc16a976ceab421fbecae3b5deff116b

[aleman] 11/7/2013 14:05

Good news today from Communisis, BrainJuicer and Centaur Media all suggests the sector is picking up. No wonder there is so much director buying. That's another 3 purchases today.

[phoenix1234] 10/7/2013 17:56

The Mission Marketing Group - is a profit warning an appropriate time to try to amuse?

[mathewawood] 10/7/2013 12:09

Smithie,

From the trading statement: "Bray Leino to restructure its London activities and, as a consequence, we expect to incur non-recurring charges and goodwill impairment charges of approximately £1.5m."

Re-structuring happens to all companies and it will always be classified as a one off. The 3-3.5p you quoted is the BASIC EPS number.

Where I do agree though is that you imply, in your first line, that a P/E of 7 is fair value. TMMG is one of those unloved companies that for years now have had a low P/E probably due to the sector there in (All marketing companies seem to have lowish P/E) and the debt they got them selves into.

So what I am saying is that even using an historic P/E of 7 then an UNDERLYING EPS of 5p gives a fair value share price at 35p.

I'm not saying that's what the share price should be right now but as a value investor you have to look at least 1 year ahead and when I do that you can, with no more hiccups along the way, see this in April 2014 (Results time). A current 5p EPS coupled with a bullish trading outlook for 2014 and a dividend of 1p (currently 4.4%) 5X covered! Not to mention the debt problem melting away fast. Surely a recipe for a share price of 45p+.

[smithie6] 10/7/2013 10:12

imho the EPS is around 3-3.5p.....not a share price around 20-25p seems fair...

imo losing clients and gaining others.....and one off costs due to those client losses.....is normal part of business in marketing sector and not a one off....

some clients lost appear to be big ones

recalling that the co. did a re-structuring 3 or so years ago....ie. things happen all the time....part of normal costs to a degree imo

made acquisitions and then underlying results are same as before !.....that is -ve imo (4.9M adjusted last year and expect adj. of 5M this year....if 2nd half is better)
infers that underlying is -ve imo...

(if improvement in 2nd half doesnt happen...then...-ve impact on sentiment perhaps)

[qs99] 10/7/2013 09:11

Yes Agree but disappointing none the less....hence the fall....may take time to recover trust....imo

[glasshalfull] 10/7/2013 08:56

Mathewawood - My thoughts as well....I was surprised to see the shares off quite as much this morning, especially when they'd already came off 35% since the end of March & this mornings opening price meant that over 50% had been loped off the shareprice in the last 4 months.

They've essentially downgrade PBT by 15% for the year and as steg alludes to, adj EPS will be around 5p but the big positive is the significant debt reduction & reinstatement of a dividend (1p mooted by finnCap).

Availed myself of a few at the open.

Regards,
GHF

[mathewawood] 10/7/2013 08:16

Pretty good time to top up.

The £5.8m 2013 forecast was never going to happen after the share price drop from 40p to 25p. They expect £5m profit before tax this year on mkt cap of £17m! with debt reducing dramatically (easy to do on these P/E).

Its just the market maker drops all profit warnings around 20% regardless whether there has been a correction before the statement came out (like insider trading doesn't exist!)

[stegrego] 10/7/2013 08:06

Adjusted eps will be about 5p won't it? Seems odd to sell on 4x.

[jeff h] 10/7/2013 08:00

No not good pre tax forecast was £5.8m

[qs99] 10/7/2013 07:11

Doesn't read IMO so well....what was consensus? Debt coming down good, but impairments and other bad news may not play well....lets see...

[paul_butcher1999] 09/7/2013 22:16

Thanks Matt, going to be interesting! This is the only share I'm holding now . ..

[jeff h] 08/7/2013 13:18

Ta Mathew.

The website gives a couple of recent engagements by Story you may find of interest.

As ever some clients aren't retained and I seem to recall Mission losing the Holland & Barrett account.

[mathewawood] 05/7/2013 09:25

Jeff - Good work. Bray Leino (Biggest contributor to TMMG revenue) certainly look busy.

Love the Domino Pizza one. I don't know about you, but I want my pizzas delivered by drone helicopters from now on. So cool!

[mathewawood] 05/7/2013 09:12

Paul - They issue a trading update in mid July (2010 was 14th, 2011 22nd, 2012 18th). Its usually pretty thorough so very important in light of the recent share price drop. It will go 2 ways:

i) We will find out whether the drop was due to insiders getting out before a profits warning.
ii) Or a "in line" or better trading update, hence share price drop due to a genuine non-insider seller creating an overhang.

For me everything points to the latter. All the marketing/advertising companies are reporting increasing profits. There's been a boyount UK service sector last 3 months and TMMG only deals in the UK (most of others exposed to Europe). And now these 30p buys with another big one today.

The forcast P/E for 2013 is now a silly 4.5. So expect a spike up correction if the trading statement is fine. With a forecast dividend of 1p (thats a brand new 4% with 5.5X cover!!) what more do investors want.

Fingers crossed.

[paul_butcher1999] 05/7/2013 01:03

interim results due in september, but there will be a trading update this month? Roughly when is it expected? Cannot find anything on the investor site. thanks

[jeff h] 03/7/2013 13:15

jas - yes they looked rather odd.

Can't see there being much buying until/unless this months Trading Update gives reassurance everything is on track.

Bray Leino & Big seem to be doing ok

hxxp://www.prweek.com/uk/news/1188596/bray-leino-help-rac-expand-beyond-motor-insurance/

hxxp://www.thedrum.com/news/2013/07/02/freederm-replaces-blackberry-sponsor-kiss-breakfast-show

hxxp://www.australiancreative.com.au/news/big-communications-booooooooosts-how-a-poster-works

hxxp://www.psfk.com/2013/06/dominos-pizza-delivery-drone.html

....but the Trading Update will reveal the state of play here.

[jashunter] 03/7/2013 09:59

Jeff H - These 30p entries appear to be buys and matching deletions - late reported. Sales continue this morning - latest at 24.5p . With overhang clear as you say, hope to see good rise soon.

[jeff h] 01/7/2013 17:16

Quite strange to see 2 x 122k trades at way over the buy price.

Maybe you're right Mathew and the overhang has cleared, the 1p increase
suggests so.

The 25k @ 25.7p was mine.

[mathewawood] 01/7/2013 14:53

Id say thats the over hang cleared. 36K bought at 30p +17% rise on the day

[mathewawood] 27/6/2013 12:05

Yes it was.

There has been a long over hang on this stock since mid April now. Im hoping that yesterday trade was the seller finally clearing the position with a block sale at 25.25p

[paul_butcher1999] 26/6/2013 22:45

someone bought/sold 300,000 block today. Thats a huge trade for this stock . ..

[mathewawood] 21/6/2013 15:05

As you can see they thought it value at 35.75p!