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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Mission Marketing Group Plc | TMMG | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 78.50 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78.50 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 13/8/2019 12:50 by cliffpeat RNS states that EBT bought £200k of shares on Friday (250k x 79.75p)That may explain the ali47fish question at 1323 And one might assume that the trustees of the EBT are pretty clued up about current year prospects for TMMG. May be a buying opportunity now? DYOR |
Posted at 15/7/2019 07:43 by mfhmfh TMMG has always been 'H2 weighted' and has always delivered as far as memory serves me. |
Posted at 06/7/2019 11:57 by thorpematt Looking back on my last post here I still feel the same really. It's way too soon for profit taking if we consider the growth profile here.The FTSE has had a pretty good run of late and as such not many stocks trade of fPEGs of less than 1. A lot of those which do heavy heavy debts and thus if you apply A discount these tend to look more expensive. TMMG is debt free and growing consistently and thus PERs of 15 and above are typical. So yes running winners is the strategy that pays. I would agree that if portfolio rules dictate you topslice then needs must. |
Posted at 14/6/2019 15:39 by ali47fish sorry jeff i am new to this board- but what impact has this on TMMG please! |
Posted at 16/4/2019 09:06 by cliffpeat ali47fishA few links relevant to this subsidiary early stage business of TMMG: Exhibited with: Seem to be working with Rolls Royce but not clear whether any other significant customers yet. |
Posted at 15/4/2019 11:48 by nimbo1 Pathfinr if it continued with its current growth trajectory could be worth more than TMMG itself within 18 months... I don't know whether the growth rates can be sustained. |
Posted at 09/4/2019 15:25 by nimbo1 He tipped it before in the 50's which is where I first came accross the company. Chart action persuaded me to buy some last week. Todays tip was the follow on with 100p target maintained. Its v interesting to me to see something like pathfindr 'hidden' in a company like TMMG. |
Posted at 09/4/2019 13:34 by 18bt ST has a 100p price target. David Morgan appears to have told ST that he expects TMMG to be debt free by this next year end. Expecting earnouts in 2020-22 to be covered by free cashflow. |
Posted at 03/4/2018 16:25 by glasshalfull TMMG8 Reasons why I think TMMG could re-rate? (1) Increasing Earnings Will announce next week (on 10.04.2018) their 7th consecutive year of positive growth. (2) Growing Dividend Yield Now 4% and forecast to rise to 5% in respect of 2019 forecasts. (3) Strong Cash Generation FCF Yield of 17.6% in 2018 & 19.5% in 2019. (4) Low PEG & PER PER 5.8 based on 2017 estimates & prospective PER of 5.2 in 2018 despite c.10% growth. PEG 0.5 falling to 0.4. (5) Increasing Margins Appointment of a Commercial Director to grow EBIT margin from 11.5% in 2016 to 14% in 2020. (6) Commercialisation of iP Several of the agencies have developed software for existing clients. This has now been harnessed under the development of their Fuse technology hub. They now have a number of products which can be rolled out to their extended client estate or utilised to attract new clients. The developed products include integrated navigation & tracking (Rolls Royce Aerospace); patient management software (NHS) and an Agency management system. So this adds value to their current proposition but also provides the possibility of a future divestiture or monetisation of the iP. (7) Strong Client Retention 60% of revenue from clients of 5 years or more; 40% from clients of 10 years or more & 20% from clients of 20 years standing. (8) International Diversification The company has emerged from that of a predominant UK marketing services company to one that has begun expanding into SE Asia & the US through establishment of brands & through acquisition. They have also moved into other industries in recent years which will mitigate any weakness in any particular group agency or market sector. Background In early January 2018 I mentioned that I’d been a buyer of The Mission Marketing (TMMG), a marketing communications & advertising company that comprises 14 principal agency brands including the highly acclaimed & top 20 UK agency Bray Leino In a nutshell TMMG came unstuck in 2009/10 after running into difficulties & running up significant debt suffered in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The FY09 results highlighted that net debt had ballooned to £20m & David Morgan was parachuted in as Exec Chairman in 2010 as the debt was restructured & plans made to salvage the business. Since 2014 the shares have been rangebound between 35p-50p with few exceptions. They are currently 40.5p mid-price having yet again failed to break the 50p ceiling at the end of January 2018 following a positive trading statement on 25.01.2018 (more of that later). The Mission have been on a single digit PER for as long as I care to remember. When I flagged the investment case early Jan 2018 I anticipated that the company would produce a strong finish to 2017. Well, that proved to be the case but with the shares moribund its certainly hard to believe that they confirmed another year of c.10% growth & fantastic cash generation. I still feel that there is a disconnect between the valuation of the company and share price currently attributed. Even more so now, as they’ve slipped back 15% since the Jan 2018 trading update. The company moved from finnCap to Shore Capital in 2017 as I understand they were equally perplexed by the valuation of the company. Can Shore do any better? Well, Shore currently have a 109p fair value price for The Mission based on their blended DCF (discounted cash flow) with comparison to EPS & DPS growth...169% higher than the current share price! It remains to be seen if they can help change the poor investor sentiment surrounding the company. Financials Market Cap £33.8m Net Debt £7.5m (per Jan 2018 t/s) Enterprise Value £41.3m Shares in Issue 84m Share Price 40p vs 41p TMMG have delivered consistent earnings growth since they nearly went under in 2010, with the exception of 2013 which produced a small 3% increase in PBT but delivered static earnings due to restructure in the business. The company also introduced a progressive dividend policy in 2013. Earnings Record - year end Dec 2010A EPS 3.5p 2011A EPS 4.2p (+22% EPS growth) 2012A EPS 4.5p (+7% EPS growth) 2013A EPS 4.5p (nil growth) / Div 1p 2014A EPS 5.1p (+15% EPS growth) / Div 1.1p 2015A EPS 5.9p (+15% EPS growth) / Div 1.2p 2016A EPS 6.4p (+9% EPS growth) / Div 1.5p Forecasts 2017E EPS 7p (+11% EPS growth) / est. Div 1.7p (yield 4%) 2018E EPS 7.8p (+12% EPS growth) / est. Div 1.8p (yield 4.2%) 2019E EPS 8.8p (+13% EPS growth) / est. Div 2.0p (yield 4.7%) The undernoted presentation link below highlights (on p6) the fact that Aviva, BP & Bellway have been clients for over 20 years. Indeed, 60% of revenues are generated via clients of 5 years or more; 40% from clients of 10 years or more & 60% from clients of 20 years or more. Simply put, the collective 14 agencies that comprise The Mission are clearly delivering given the longevity of their client base. Investment Case TMMG have flown under most investors radars despite forecasts of double digit CAGR during the next 3 years & sit on a PER of 5.8 based on expectations of 7p EPS in 2017 & prospective PER of 5.2 for the current year. Their progressive dividend is also forecast to have risen to 1.7p for 2017, providing a dividend yield of 4.2%. 2018 finds the company with a forecast dividend yield of 4.4% & 2019 it may rise to 4.9% according to forecasts. Net debt was always the achilles heel of the company IMHO. Despite the perception that The Mission is heavily indebted (note: - they WERE heavily indebted previously) they have reduced net debt from £20.1m in 2010 to £7.5m at the end of 2018 despite having made a number of bolt-on acquisitions and investing in the establishment of a few agencies. It’s worth highlighting that consensus broker forecasts were for TMMG to end 2017 with £11.3m net debt & the trading statement of 25.01.2018 indicated that cash generation had been exceptional knocking net debt down to £7.5m which triggered a 0.5% reduction on their interest rates. “2017 was an exceptional year for working capital reductions and the year ended with a net bank debt position below £7.5m, materially better than market expectations. The ratio of net bank debt to EBITDA has accordingly reduced below x1.0, thereby triggering a 0.5% reduction in interest rates on the Group's debt facilities from this month. As I mentioned 3 months ago, free cashflow (FCF) & margins are also expected to improve during the next few years. With the investment made in recent years its is forecast to substantially improve in 2018 & 2019 to FCF yield of 17.6% & 19.5% respectively. EBIT margins are also forecast to increase from 11.5% in 2016 to 11.9% in 2017, with the company stating their ambition to increasing this to 14% by March 2020 in the January t/s. It should be noted that the company have a large H2 weighting - as anyone who has reviewed their interim statements will have observed over the years. This may be one reason for the low rating, as we all know that statement implying a H2 weighting may be perceived as a pending profit warning for may companies, but The Mission enjoy a (37% / 63%) H1 / H2 split & have delivered consistently each H2 year in year out as evidenced by their 7 year growth record. Conclusion In January I summarised by saying the share price has gone nowhere for the last 3 years, while earnings have returned low double digit growth. So this is simply deja vu. I believe that if TMMG continue to deliver as per forecast, then it would not surprise me to see them break out from 35p-50p range at some point...how long that takes is anyone’s guess? Suppose that’s like saying this could go up, down or stay the same! Seriously, I don’t subscribe to the 109p fair price mooted by Shore Capital but believe the shares could double from here & have a current target price of 80p based on the shares attaining a PEG 1 and PER 10, not forgetting that the current price locks in a prospective dividend of 5% based on forecasts to 2019. I would go so far as to say that if the market continues to ignore the company then I think they’ll be a sitting duck to a larger player in the space. Their EV is only £41m and PBT is forecast to rise to £8.5m this year and £9.6m next. Stock - o - pedia agree, with TMMG on a Stock Rank rating of 90 & Magic Formula score A+ Disclosure I’ve been buying since January so please consider my musings as one who is wearing rose-tinted spectacles. Kind regards, GHF |
Posted at 10/1/2018 08:57 by glasshalfull TMMGLike many investors I’ve reviewed my holdings & watchlist during the last fortnight. I topped up and added substantially in relation to a few (such as CROS, OPM & PTY) which appeared undervalued - IMHO - in relation to prospects. Another on my list was an old favourite, The Mission Marketing (TMMG), a marketing communications & advertising company. This company has been in & out of my portfolio during the last few years. Last invested here in early 2016. TMMG’s profitability had recovered during recent years after running into difficulties & ramp up of debt suffered in the wake of the 2008/09 financial crisis. The FY09 results highlighted that net debt had ballooned to £20m & David Morgan was parachuted in as CEO as debt was restructured. Since 2014 the shares have been rangebound between 35p-50p with few exceptions. They are currently 43p mid-price having yet again failed to break the 50p ceiling. They have been on a high single digit PER for as long as I can remember. I feel that this may be about to change. “Why now?”... I here you ask. Well, the market have given this company a wide berth over the last few years. However - you knew there was to be a further however - their performance over the last 7 years belies this weak share price IMHO. They have delivered consistent earnings growth over the period, with exception of 2013 (nil growth) while introducing a progressive dividend policy in 2013. Earnings Record - year end Dec 2010A EPS 3.5p 2011A EPS 4.2p (+22% EPS growth) 2012A EPS 4.5p (+7% EPS growth) 2013A EPS 4.5p (nil growth) / Div 1p 2014A EPS 5.1p (+15% EPS growth) / Div 1.1p 2015A EPS 5.9p (+15% EPS growth) / Div 1.2p 2016A EPS 6.4p (+9% EPS growth) / Div 1.5p Forecasts 2017E EPS 7p (+11% EPS growth) / est. Div 1.7p (yield 4%) 2018E EPS 7.8p (+12% EPS growth) / est. Div 1.8p (yield 4.2%) 2019E EPS 8.8p (+13% EPS growth) / est. Div 2.0p (yield 4.7%) A credible record due in part to the long term relationships they have established with an exceptional blue chip client base. Presentation link below highlights (on p6) the fact that Aviva, BP & Bellway have been clients for over 20 years! Recent client wins, per their interim statement, include Mars, Neff, Reckitt Benckiser, Revlon, The Royal Mint and Universal Studios. As mentioned this strong client retention means they have better revenue visibility than many peers with 57% of their revenues delivered from clients of 5 years standing or more. The company have also grown to encompass 14 agencies across the globe. TMMG have quietly flown under the radar despite forecasts of double digit CAGR during the next 3 years. They also introduced a dividend in 2013, and as observed, the yield is forecast to have crept up to 4% for 2017. Meanwhile, net debt has reduced from £20m in 2018 to £11m today. Should be noted that once net debt reduced to c.£10m they undertook a few small bolt on acquisitions over the last couple of years. Importantly, free cashflow & margins are also expected to improve during the next few years. In 2016 FCF was £4.5m for a yield of 13.3% and in 2017 forecast to be £4.2m for yield of 12.3%. With investment made in recent years its is forecast to substantially improve in 2018 & 2019 to 17.6% & 19.5% respectively. PBT margins are also forecast to increase from 10.7% in 2016 to 12.6% in 2019. It should be noted that the company have a large H2 weighting - as anyone who reviews their interim statements will have observed over the years. This may be one reason for the low rating, as we all know that statement implying a H2 weighting may be perceived as a pending profit warning in many cases. Interim presentation here So, in summary, the share price has gone nowhere for the last 3 years, while earnings have returned low double digit growth. I believe that if TMMG continue to deliver as per forecast, then it would not surprise me to see them break out from 35p-50p range before too long. Is it speculative to consider that they could double from the current share price price (43p) over the course of the next 18/24 months???... and while one is waiting there is a 4% dividend yield on offer that rises to 4.7% by 2019. Even if the share price doubled, on 7.8p forecast earnings in 2018 & 8.8p EPS in 2019, they would only be on a PER 10 - 11, which is hardly a racy multiple. Stock - o - pedia appear to agree, with TMMG on a Stock Rank rating of 91 & Magic Formula score A+ Disclosure I’ve been buying over recent sessions so as always, please consider my musings with a large pinch of salt and DYOR. This is not a full write-up but simply a short synopsis. Kind regards, GHF |
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