Tekmar Share Discussion Threads

[gogoneko] 05/5/2009 13:56

Having finally broken out of the trading range held for almost a year I'm not surprised to see a few sellers, no doubt relieved to finally be able to book a profit (hopefully for them). As for 6p+, that'll likely be a tougher challenge but not insurmountable.

[gogoneko] 01/5/2009 15:15

I was wondering when they'd raise the offer, there has been some consistent buying recently, nothing huge, so hopefully any surplus has been mopped up. My personal expectation is a gradual retrace up to around 7-8p in anticipation of a favourable AGM statement in just over 3 weeks.

[rivaldo] 01/5/2009 14:05

100,000 bought at 5.5p, 0.25p above the 5.25p offer. Gyllenhammer topping up again?

EDIT - and another 85k bought at 4.85p.

[rivaldo] 30/4/2009 13:50

Agreed about the sale not necessarily happening for a while. The comfort for me is that at £2.7m, or even a down-valued £2m at worst, it backs up much of TGP's m/cap - with nothing in the current m/cap for the rest of the £4.8m net tangible assets or what is now a highly profitable and expanding core business.

[gogoneko] 30/4/2009 08:17

I'm not counting on the property sale taking place for a couple of years. I think that it's a buyer's market and the slow movement on this front is indicative of a buyer who can afford to take their time.

I think that the company would even have problems renting any space out (if possible) in the current environment.

[rivaldo] 29/4/2009 22:53

Who knows? All we do know is that the property has been valued at £2.7m, against the £4.5m m/cap, and that the purchaser must be serious given that he's going through the planning process.

I'd have thought the current climate would be advantageous to getting planning approval - any sort of planned construction/development activity must be viewed favourably at present.

[supreme mo] 29/4/2009 07:42

does anyone know what is the likelihood of the property sale?

[rivaldo] 28/4/2009 10:39

Baner's excellent post 5514 is worth repeating - at last some are recognising the value here:

"the broker´s note is hopeless - they totally miss that they should look at the enterprise value incl potential cash from the propery sale, and the Datatool business:

proceeds from property when sold 2.7
value of datatool, say 0.8

= potential net cash (no debt assumed) 3.5 = 4p/share

market cap equity @5p 4.5

so, EV 1.0 or 1.1p/share

for this £1m you implicitly get 100% of a 21st Century making maybe £2m of EBT in the current year. not expensive.....

if we could assume there would be no other loss makers in the group and that the income from the net cash (trough acquisition for example) would meet the central costs - then the group´s EBT would be towards £2m in the current year, and the EPS c. 1.5p. given the strong balance sheet and the attractive growth potential a PER of 10 is conservative. not expensive......

the chairman peter ward has a large shareholding here, as do the CEO and now also the 21st vendor. what tg21 now needs is to grow quickly to dilute the central costs - or indeed to be taken over by a larger group. mr gyllenhammar is not known to sit quite for too long.

this looks really good!"

[nod] 27/4/2009 22:31

Quite a long time ago, a year or two, we discussed some of the competition in the public transport CCTV space. It's quite competitive and fragmaented with many small companies competing for contracts with big transport companies. I had thought that TGP could acquire some of these small players and consolidate their market position but this hasn't happened. TGP's other acquisition with Cyberline looks like being a loss.

We also talked about TGP expanding into other PT markets such as trains and taxis.

Petards is one player although they appear to have a leaning towards trains rather than buses.


Petards reinforces rail industry position with latest contract wins

27 April 2009

Advanced security and surveillance systems developer Petards has been awarded two major contracts to supply and install its new generation of eyeTrain on-board digital CCTV systems on locomotives and passenger vehicles.

The first deal, from a UK train operating company, is worth in excess of £3 million and will see Petards supply and install eyeTrain systems to over 390 passenger vehicles and includes forward facing cameras on two classes of locomotives. Deliveries are expected to commence in the second half of 2009 and to be completed by the end of 2010.

The second contract, placed by Hyundai Rotem of Korea, is for the supply of eyeTrain systems for 90 new Matangi EMU cars that they are supplying to Greater Wellington Railways. Forward facing cameras will also be fitted to these cars. The contract value is £0.8 million and deliveries are expected to commence in the second half of 2009 and to be completed by the middle of 2010.

Petards' chief executive, Bill Conn, said the contracts were very significant for the company and demonstrated the strong position that it holds within the rail industry.

[whatlp] 27/4/2009 21:50

I hear you baner...Have you been topping up on this one, must admit that I'm tempted.

[baner] 27/4/2009 21:42

the broker´s note is hopeless - they totally miss that they should look at the enterprise value incl potential cash from the propery sale, and the Datatool business:

proceeds from property when sold 2.7
value of datatool, say 0.8

= potential net cash (no debt assumed) 3.5 = 4p/share

market cap equity @5p 4.5

so, EV 1.0 or 1.1p/share

for this £1m you implicitly get 100% of a 21st Century making maybe £2m of EBT in the current year. not expensive.....

if we could assume there would be no other loss makers in the group and that the income from the net cash (trough acquisition for example) would meet the central costs - then the group´s EBT would be towards £2m in the current year, and the EPS c. 1.5p. given the strong balance sheet and the attractive growth potential a PER of 10 is conservative. not expensive......

the chairman peter ward has a large shareholding here, as do the CEO and now also the 21st vendor. what tg21 now needs is to grow quickly to dilute the central costs - or indeed to be taken over by a larger group. mr gyllenhammar is not known to sit quite for too long.

this looks really good!

[gogoneko] 21/4/2009 15:22

Glad it was PG picking up the shares recently, hopefully 250k of those were since the RNS of the 15th. Reassures me a bit that they're not going to come back onto the market.

Re: the note. I think that they're being useless as usual. We'll find out soon enough and hopefully I won't end up eating humble pie.

[rivaldo] 21/4/2009 15:16

RNS just out - Gyllenhammar's bought another 450,000 shares since his last holdings announcement.

He's now up to 20.3m shares, or 22%:



DAN are simply being very cautious imo. Nowt wrong with that. I'm looking forward to the AGM statement next month. Maybe TGP will be able to say they're ahead of expectations - now that would surprise a few people :o))

Incidentally, the property was written down last year to its £2.7m value per the offer on the table, against the £4.4m m/cap.

[nod] 21/4/2009 12:35

gogoneko - ok, thanks for that. As you can see I'm not keeping up with TGP :)

I'm looking for the reason that PBT for this year would be only 300k ?

DAN's estimates have been very close in the past.

[gogoneko] 21/4/2009 12:21

nod,

They announced the writedowns as exceptionals for FY '08 results (£0.7m property (with £0.3m tax reclaim I think) and £0.4m CCL, as well as a £0.2m restructuring for the installation division). I will be astonished if there are any exceptionals in the current half, but there may be further property write-downs if/when eventually sold.

[nod] 21/4/2009 12:08

Back in December I reckoned they were warning of a significant writedown. I haven't checked these figures (as I haven't held TGP for a very long time) but nobody contested them at the time...


nod - 18 Dec'08 - 20:45 - 5449 of 5508 edit

I doubt that CCL has positive net assets. TGP's loan has probably been keeping CCL operational. You would have thought there was some value in merging with 21C but obviously not.

It looks as though TGP is warning that they will have a one million write down this year: 600k for the property loss and 430k for CCL.

It doesn't say they will sell the property (does it?) only that they have an option to sell at a price which is 800k less than the book value. If they sell the property it will off-set the write-down but if they don't the accounts will not look pretty.

[gogoneko] 21/4/2009 11:54

Thanks rivaldo,

If they say 21st Century alone generated PBT of £1.6m in '08 they must really have some disastrous numbers for this year for distribution (possibly, but nothing at all to indicate such in the prelims) and installation (unlikely, as increasing revenue is derived from 21stCentury) if they expect just £0.3m PBT this year considering what the company recently said about ongoing trading. They perhaps have taken the £0.583m payment prior to calculation PBT, but even £0.883m PBT would be a really awful result, yet they change from hold to buy! Hopefully people will make their own conclusions. I may be proved wrong (very possible), but if the company maintains trading and doesn't create any (more!) exceptional charges then I think that they'll be upgrading those numbers healthily post-interims.

[rivaldo] 21/4/2009 11:08

I have purloined the Daniel Stewart update :o))

I seem to remember they previously had TGP as a Hold, but it's now a Buy. They go for:

2009 - £0.3m PBT, 0.3p EPS
2010 - £0.5m PBT, 0.4p EPS

If gogoneko's figures are anything to go by these are very understated. Certainly if you add on the 4.7p per share tangible NAV, of which the property is 2.9p, there should be little downside and substantial upside.

Here's what they say:

"21st Century wholly owned

�� TG21 recently announced that it has acquired the remaining 25% of the ordinary shares in 21st Century Crime Prevention Services Ltd and that as a consequence 21st Century is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the group.

�� 21st Century supplies on board CCTV and other monitoring systems to the public transport market.

�� For the year ended Dec. 31, 2008 made a profit before tax of GBP1.6 million on turnover of GBP7.7 million.

�� Over the last few years TG21 has moved successfully to reposition itself from being a distributor of in-car entertainment and security systems to become a vehicle installation service provider.

�� In 08, the company achieved first sales of its flagship EcoManager system to public transport operators. Moreover, the group has pipeline orders for a further 2,000 EcoManager systems in the current year.

�� With a healthy pipeline of products, targeting the relatively acyclical public transport sector, and neutral net debt, TG21 is well placed to weather the downturn."

[gogoneko] 21/4/2009 00:29

Judging by the trading today I guess it was a bit underwhelming. Or perhaps nobody takes any notice or puts any faith in broker notes any more ;)

[woodie3] 20/4/2009 19:16

i dont know not a client of d.stewart

[whatlp] 20/4/2009 18:52

what does it say?

[woodie3] 20/4/2009 17:05

new note out today from d.stewart

[gogoneko] 20/4/2009 16:45

whatlp

That would be nice - could possibly result in a monthly RNS release (AGM, pre-close, TfL, interims), so we can see that things stay on track.